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The Prop Queen, Ariel Epstein, gives her best plays for the MLB slate on Thursday, May 5th.
ARIEL EPSTEIN: Happy Thursday. I'm the Prop Queen, Ariel Epstein. I've got two Major League Baseball strikeout props for tonight's slate.
They're both coming from the same game, so let's start with the righty. I'm going with the San Diego Padres' right-hander Nick Martinez, over, 4 and 1/2 strikeouts. I've seen the juice on this over go from minus 155 this morning down to minus 128. Anything below minus 150, I'm good with betting it.
Martinez is up against the Miami Marlins. The Marlins have the seventh-highest [? K ?] rate in baseball. Starters are 13 and 10 over/under their K [? props ?] this year [? when ?] up against Miami. The righties-- they're averaging just over five strikeouts per start. This number at 4 and 1/2-- a bit too low. I'm going with the over, 4 and 1/2 strikeouts on Nick Martinez.
For my second prop, it's the other side. I'm betting the Miami Marlins' starter Jesús Luzardo-- over, 4 and 1/2 strikeouts. I have seen this number go up to 5 and 1/2. If it does, stay away from the 5 and 1/2, please.
The San Diego Padres may have the seventh-lowest [? K rate ?] in baseball. However, that number goes up to 17th-ranked K rate when up against southpaws. They strike out about 2% more when up against left-handers.
Starting pitchers this year are 14 and 11 over/under when up against the Padres. I like the fact that I have seen Luzardo go over this number in 3 out of his 4 starts. He had five strikeouts against Seattle, eight strikeouts against Atlanta, and 12 strikeouts against the Angels. The only team he didn't go over this number against was the St. Louis Cardinals. And the Cardinals-- they are one of the least, if not the least strikeout-prone team in baseball. Go bet the over, 4 and 1/2 strikeouts on Jesús Luzardo.
Here's your Prop Queen recap. I'm betting the over, 4 and 1/2 strikeouts, on Nick Martinez. I'm also betting the over, 4 and 1/2 strikeouts, on Jesús Luzardo. Please don't ask me on Twitter if I would take the 5 and 1/2 on Luzardo. The answer is no.
Good luck tonight, and we'll see you again tomorrow here at "Yahoo Sportsbook." Bet $10 and win $200 in free bets by signing up at BetMGM.com/YahooVIP. New customers only. Must be 21 or older. Terms apply.