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Betting PGA: Two head-to-head matchups for the John Deere Classic

·Betting analyst
·2 min read
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The PGA heads to Illinois for the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run. The course is a par 71, extends over 7,200 yards and favors the straight-ball hitter who can knock in loads of birdies. Lucas Glover won this event last year scoring 19-under. The winning score in 2018 was 27-under, so I’m looking for players that have the ceiling to score low.

Here are two full tournament matchups worth a grab.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (-105) vs. Jason Day

If I’m looking for players to keep the ball in the fairway, C-Bez is my guy. The South African isn’t known for gaining strokes off the tee but it’s because his lack of distance, not his accuracy. He's ranked 31st in the field for keeping the ball in line, while Day is 106th. If you want to give yourself a chance at some birdie opportunities, you’ll need to hit solid iron shots to pin it close. Day has now lost strokes on approach in four straight events, losing an average of 3.7 strokes per event. Because of his ball striking, Day has also lost strokes tee-to-green in three of his last four events. While Bezuidenhout has had his own struggles with two missed cuts in his last three events, he has also had a T12 in the Byron Nelson and a T15 in the Charles Schwab. Backing the player not bleeding red with his irons and can certainly keep the ball in the fairway from the get-go is the way to go.

Denny McCarthy (+115) vs. Charles Howell

If we’re talking about keeping the ball in the fairway, McCarthy has the edge over Howell in that regard. McCarthy lacks the distance but has the accuracy, while Howell has the distance but lacks the accuracy. McCarthy isn’t particularly known for his ball striking but he can work his way around the greens and is top five in the field for strokes gained putting in the last 24 rounds. If I’m looking for players to putt well for a low score, McCarthy’s putting skills should come into play. He did finish in seventh in the US Open and before that finished T5 in the Memorial Tournament so the ceiling is there. For this course, I’ll take the more accurate player with a strong flat stick.

Denny McCarthy plays his tee shot on the fourth hole during the final round of the 2022 U.S.Open on June 19. (David Cannon/Getty Images)
Denny McCarthy plays his tee shot on the fourth hole during the final round of the 2022 U.S.Open on June 19. (David Cannon/Getty Images)