Pamela Maldonado gives her Power Play for Week 4 of the college football season.
PAM MALDONADO: Happy week four of college football, Yahoo Sportsbook. I am Pam Maldonado bringing you my best bet of the week. I am done calling teams ugly underdogs. Instead, I am calling them my power plays, like last week nailing Kansas as a near 3 to 1 underdog. For this week, I am turning to a Pac-12 dog as my power play. Theme of the week, fade Bo Nix on the road. The play for me is back in Washington State plus 6 and 1/2 at home to the Oregon Ducks.
Nix is in a prove it to me first situation because he has some of the most lopsided quarterback splits that I have seen in college football. Bo Nix at home when he was with Auburn, 25 touchdowns, five interceptions. But when he traveled on the road, 13 touchdowns, 12 interceptions. And because of those splits, the Auburn Tigers with Nix behind center, 14 and 5 straight up, 12 and 7 against the spread at home. 6 and 8 straight up, 7 and 7 against the spread when traveling.
Now I know that Oregon faced Georgia away, and I know that Oregon faced BYU at home. But through two games, Nix has thrown for two touchdown passes at home against BYU and threw for just two interceptions on the road to Georgia.
Now one of the data points that seems enticing is that Nix has yet to be sacked so far this season. But if you can believe it, this Georgia pass rush is a bit of a non-existent at the moment. One sack through three games. BYU, 74th in applying quarterback pressure.
So what does Washington State have going for them defensively? The sixth-best pass rush in the FBS. 14 combined sacks for the Cougars with linebacker Daiyan Henley leading the charge. Couldn't Bo Nix be better with a new team? Sure. Prove it to me first. Until then, you have Nix on the road, under pressure.
Defensively, the Ducks' secondary, last in the FBS for opponent completion percentage. Cougars quarterback Cameron Ward can absolutely exploit this secondary, this defense. So to recap my power play for week four of college football, back in Washington State, plus 6 and 1/2 at home to the Oregon Ducks. And don't forget to sprinkle that plus 190 moneyline.
Bet $10 and win $100 when you wager on any event. Sign up at betmgm.com/yahoospecial. New customers only. Must be 21 or older.