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Betting: Will Cowboys cover -4.5 vs. Saints?

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Pamela Maldonado joins Minty Bets to break down their betting picks for the Thursday Night Football matchup between the Cowboys and Saints.

Video Transcript

MINTY BETS: This Thursday Night Football will be between the Dallas Cowboys and the New Orleans Saints. The Cowboys are 4 and 1/2 point road favorites, and the total is 47 and 1/2.

I'm Minty Bets joined by Pam Maldonado, and we're here to give you our favorite bets for Thursday. Pam, what do you have for us?

PAMELA MALDONADO: I'm looking to the first quarter and the first quarter only. I don't really want much to do with the spread as a whole, but instead I'm looking to the first quarter, taking the under on 9 and 1/2 points.

Returning back for the Cowboys is defensive end Demarcus Lawrence and wide receiver CeeDee Lamb. Returning for the Saints is running back Alvin Kamara. So is a one-man show enough to get the job done against the Cowboys? I'm not sure, but I do like the under 9 and 1/2 in the first quarter. 48% of New Orleans' points have been scored in the fourth quarter, the highest rate in the league, while only 9% of the points have been scored by New Orleans have come in the first quarter. That's the lowest rate in the league.

In the last five games without Winston, the Saints have scored 7 combined points in five games, a single touchdown that came back a month ago against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That is four straight games of 0 points scores in the first quarter for the Saints. Enough to help me like the under, but also for Dallas after the bye and with Dak Prescott returning, in the last four games played, 7 points or less in all four games, including 0 against Denver and just 3 points against this Kansas City Chiefs.

Now, the Cowboys are going to try to utilize running back Ezekiel Elliott, and it probably won't work because the Saints are third best against the run. And Kamara, he's going to try to get the Saints' offense going also on the ground. Attempting to establish the run early, that makes me like the under 9 and 1/2 points in the first quarter.

MINTY BETS: Ooh, I like it. I actually really like the under, but I think I'm going to go with the Saints plus the points here. Now, both of these teams will be missing quite a few players and coaching staff for Dallas.

I'm expecting to see a very heavy ground game from the Saints here, and the Dallas defense only allowing 4.4 yards per carry, which is tied fifth most in the league. So I really like the Saints plus the points here. I bet them at plus 5 and 1/2, but I would bet it all the way down to plus 3 and 1/2 if I had to. I'm also kind of expecting them to win straight up here.

And to recap our Thursday night picks, Pam has the first quarter under 9 and 1/2, and I have the Saints to cover.

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