Minty Bets, Jared Quay and Pamela Maldonado break down their betting picks for the Saturday Night Football matchup between the Patriots and Colts.
MINTY BETS: We've got the Colts hosting the Patriots. The Colts land 2.5 at home here, and the total is 45. Jared, let's start with you with this one.
JARED QUAY: Oh this is one of my picks of the week. I love the Colts here. The Colts are 7 and 6, but they're a much better team than what their record indicates. I think that this is after a bye for them, this is basically a playoff game because they need to win every one to get into that playoffs. They're going against, I think, a overvalued Patriots team. Patriots ran the ball, beat the Bills last time out. But I don't think that happens again against this Colts defense. So I think this coach is in playoff mode already after a bye. Give me the Colts -2.5.
MINTY BETS: OK, Pam, what's your pick for this one?
PAMELA MALDONADO: I'm looking to another total, and taking the under on 45 and looking at three things. Number one, pace of play. New England, 28th in plays per game this season, but 31st in plays per game in the last three played. This is not a high tempo offense.
The second thing I'm looking at is turnovers, which can prevent scoring. The Colts and the Patriots are both first and second in percentage of drives with a forced turnover. I can definitely imagine a scenario where you see Damien Harris fumbling in the red zone, or even Carson Wentz throwing in the end zone. Can't you see that? Because I sure can.
Then I'm looking at scoring. And looking at the offense for New England, only 50% of their scoring plays are touchdowns. That is 31st in the league. And defensively, New England is actually one of the best. First in opponent points per play, first in opponent red zone scoring. Give me the under 45 between, this should be a good defensive battle.
MINTY BETS: Pam, you and I are just not in sync. I am looking to a total, too. But the first half over set at 22.5. Now, this easy and simple, the Colts are third in first half points per game, while New England is eighth in first half points per game. I do think there will be big defensive plays here, but I like the first half over because I'm hoping for some scoring here.
Now to recap, for the night game, Pats at Colts, Jared has the Colts to cover, Pam has the under, and I'm on the first half over. Bet $1 on any game and win $100 free. Sign up now at betmgm.com/yahoospecial.