Betting college football: Risking it on a 7-to-1 underdog to win? It could happen...

Through four weeks of college football, we now have a better sense of the strengths and weaknesses of a team. For myriad reasons, there are teams potentially being overvalued in the market. I want to exploit those lines by backing big-time underdogs in Week 5. Here are two double-digit dogs I envision not only covering a large spread but maybe even coming out with an outright win.

Colorado +17.5 at Arizona

The Buffaloes are 119th in total offense and 117th in total defense. Why on earth would anyone back them to cover as an underdog? Because Colorado has faced a very difficult schedule of opponents so far and now gets an Arizona team that finished 1-11 last season. Take a look at Colorado's first four opponents.

Week 1: 38-13 loss against TCU, a team that is top 35 in total offense, top 30 in rushing defense with a top 35 pass rush. Still, Colorado was only outgained by 65 yards despite controlling the time of possession. Seven points for the Horned Frogs came by a punt return touchdown, while the Buffaloes had three red zone trips that resulted in a loss on downs.

Week 2: 41-10 loss at Air Force, an offense that is first in rushing yards. Air Force had the ball for 40 minutes in a 60-minute game. That’s difficult for any team to overcome.

Week 3: 49-7 loss at Minnesota, a defense ranked No. 1 in the country paired with the third-best rushing attack, and who I pegged to be a Big Ten title contender preseason. One positive: Colorado was able to rush for 4.0 yards per carry against the Golden Gophers, which is well above its 3.3 season average.

Week 4: 45-17 loss to UCLA, a team that is top 10 in total offense and top 15 in total defense. Colorado managed to put up 309 yards of total offense, threw for 6.1 yards per pass and was down just 21-10 at the half. The Buffaloes had a missed field goal, a turnover on downs and two turnovers that resulted in 14 points for the Bruins.

This Colorado team has played a tough schedule and is likely not as bad as the stat lines indicate. The Wildcats are bottom 15 against the run and bottom 10 in giveaways. Arizona quarterback Jayden de Laura has thrown six interceptions to his eight passing touchdowns. Perhaps this Colorado offense will get a boost now that Owen McCown, son of former NFL quarterback Josh McCown, will get his second start.

Will Massachusetts pull off an upset against Eastern Michigan? Stranger things have happened. (Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
Will Massachusetts pull off an upset against Eastern Michigan? Stranger things have happened. (Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)

UMass +20 at Eastern Michigan (+770)

UMass, really? Yes. The Minutemen are a run-only offense facing an Eagles rushing defense that allowed 5.0 yards per carry to FCS squad Eastern Kentucky, 7.4 yards per rush to Arizona State and 201 rushing yards to Buffalo. EMU is 92nd against the run despite facing three FBS teams that ranked 94th or worse in rushing yards. UMass is top 30 with quarterback Gino Campiotti leading the charge with 242 rushing yards. They also have a strong back in Ellis Merriweather, who rushed for 144 yards against Eastern Michigan last season in a 42-28 loss.

The X-factor is Campiotti, a transfer from Northern Arizona who started as quarterback and switched to the tight end position before making his way back behind center. Campiotti's rushing ability tied with Merriweather will wear down the EMU rushing defense.

The key will be turnovers. Massachusetts has had four turnovers that led to 24 points for their opponents. Fortunately, Eastern Michigan is bottom five in takeaways while being just as bad with ball protection (111th in giveaways). It’s not crazy to think UMass could snag a win, as the Minutemen are 2-1 head-to-head against the Eagles, winning back-to-back in 2014 and 2015. UMass finished a combined 6-18 during that span.