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Betting: Will Bills cover -3 vs. Patriots?

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Minty Bets, Jared Quay and Pamela Maldonado break down their betting picks for the Monday Night Football matchup between the Patriots and Bills.

Video Transcript

[MUSIC PLAYING]

MINTY BETS: It's time for some Monday Night Football as we have an AFC East match-up. The Buffalo Bills host the New England Patriots. The Bills are three-point home favorites and the total is 42.5. I'm Minty Bets joined by Pam Maldonado and Jared Quay and we're here to give you our best bets. Pam, let's start things off with you. What do you have for us?

PAMELA MALDONADO: The Patriots plus-3 as an underdog to the Bills. One of my favorite things to look at is quarterback pressure and nobody does it as good as New England right now. They lead in sacks plus turnovers forced per game and you have linebacker Matt Judon, 11.5 sacks on the season. That's the third most in the NFL.

Josh Allen he is a good quarterback. He's perhaps even a great quarterback. But against the only other top-10 pass rush that he has played this season-- that was Pittsburgh in week one-- he had one touchdown, was sacked three times, and his second lowest QBR on the season. His worst was actually in the 9-6 loss to the Jags where he was sacked four times.

And the Bills supposedly have the number one defense, but against who? The number one easiest schedule in the NFL. They have played Miami twice, Washington, Houston, the Jets, and the Saints without its top two running backs. What you can do with this Bills is run on this team, and Colts running back Jonathan Taylor, 185 yards, four scores, Titans running back Derrick Henry, 143 yards and three scores. Is New England running back Damien Harris either one of these players? I will comfortably say no, but in four games this season, Harris has rushed for 80-plus yards and in three of them has rushed for 100-plus, so he is definitely capable. I'll always look first to the team that has a stellar pass rush and his catching points. I love the Patriots plus-3 against the Bills.

MINTY BETS: And this game was very tough because I really like the Patriots too, but I'm going to bet on the Bills here. I can't help but think this is a trap game. I mean, the Bills have been really inconsistent and the Patriots have been hot, but let's see who the Patriots have beat in this hot streak-- the Jets, the Chargers, who are inconsistent, the Panthers, the Browns with Case Keenum and without Nick Chubb, the Falcons, and the Titans without literally everybody. So I think I'm going to lay the points with the Bills. I'm going to wait until kickoff so maybe I can get minus-2.5 or better. Jared, what do you have for us?

JARED QUAY: I love your pick, Minty. I hate to go against Pam because she's so good, but let's be honest, all right? I'm not going to give you some scientifical, this is the data I've put together. No, no. This is a gut feeling, all right? The Bills have been getting destroyed by the Patriots for decades now when Tom Brady was there. Now you got a chance without Brady in a primetime game at home and basically they give a three-point line to the home team so this is pick 'em.

And I'm sorry, the Patriots have been on a hot streak, the Bills have been a down streak, this is the one game that the Bills circled on their calendar and they're going to win. They're going to win big. And it's because Josh Allen is not only going to throw the ball, but he's going to run the ball, which it makes that pass rush a little bit hesitant. And with that being the case, I think the Bills should win this one comfortably, possibly by seven. I think the Patriots, when they get down, they don't have the best comeback skills unless they're playing the Texans. Other than that, though, I think this Bills team at home should a win. Let's go Bills Mafia.

MINTY BETS: And to recap our Monday Night Football picks, Pam has the Patriots to cover and Jared and I are on the Bills to cover. Bet $1 on any game and win $100 free. Sign up now at betmgm.com/yahoospecial.