Minty Bets, Mark Drumheller and Pamela Maldonado give their best bets for Sunday’s AFC Championship Game between Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs.
MINTY BETS: We've got the AFC Championship game this Sunday between the Bengals and the Chiefs. I'm joined by Pam Maldonado and Mark Drumheller, and we're going to give you guys our best bets, starting with Pam. I believe you have a player prop for us.
PAM MALDONADO: Yes. It's because I already have a futures ticket on both the Bengals and the 49ers to make it to the Super Bowl. So I'm turning to the player prop market instead for this matchup, turning to Tyler Boyd over 3 and 1/2 receptions at plus 135. Since we do know that the Bengals have faced the Chiefs three times already with quarterback Joe Burrow behind center, in all three games, Boyd had exactly four receptions in each on 16 total targets.
If you look at non-wide receiver ones, the Chiefs defense has allowed this total to 12 separate receivers, including last week against the Jaguars in the divisional round where Zay Jones, Christian Kirk, and Evan Engram, three players who hit over this total receptions against this Chiefs secondary.
Now the Chiefs offense may be absolutely elite, but it is the defense that is susceptible to the passing game. 20th in opponent completion percentage, 19th in points allowed per drive, which means that offenses are not only getting downfield, but then they are putting up scores up on the KC defense. I expect a ton of passing production from Joe Burrow and the Bengals. And with Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins both getting most of the coverage from the defenses, in comes Boyd for the assist.
Boyd may have the least production between the wide receivers, but you can rely on him for what he does best, and that is operating from out of the slot. Boyd comes in when it matters most. He will make the plays to extend the drive, and he will assist the Bengals offense to hopefully another win to the Super Bowl.
MINTY BETS: Alrighty. Mark, what is your bet for this AFC matchup?
MARK DRUMHELLER: Minty, I'm on the first half over 23 and 1/2. We've talked about the Bengals' ability to build big leads early in the game. They've averaged 18 points per first half over the last five games. And we saw versus Buffalo, they drove down the field and scored two touchdowns in their first two possessions.
Now we know the Bengals' defense has done a great job against Patrick Mahomes. They've won three straight games. But in those three losses, Kansas City still scored 19.6 points per game in the first half. So I think we see points out of both offenses here. And by targeting the first-half total, we limit the exposure of Patrick Mahomes re-aggravating that injury. We just need him to get through two quarters. So I'll take the first half over 23 and 1/2.
MINTY BETS: All right, I'm going with a total as well, the Bengals team total over 23 and one 1/2 at -125. They've gone over this total in four of their last five games. In the regular season, they were averaging 26.1 points per game. And in the playoffs, 25.5 points per game. Joe Burrow is the healthier quarterback. He utilizes his offensive weapons much more efficiently than Patrick Mahomes, which is why I really like this over. And I think this total is set a little too low.
To recap our AFC picks, Pam's on Tyler Boyd over 3 and 1/2 receptions, Mark has the first half over 23 and 1/2 points, and I'm on the Bengals team total over 23 and 1/2 points. Bet $10 and win $100 when you wager on any event. Sign up at BetMGM.com/yahoospecial. New customers only. Must be 21 or older.