SPREAD TO BET NOW: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (+4) AT GREEN BAY PACKERS
There are plenty of people down on the Packers and the fact that Green Bay enjoyed a first-round bye after a 13-3 SU record built on the back on softer opposition. Books opened the Cheeseheads at the dead number of -4 hosting the Seahawks, giving themselves some breathing room to move off action.
While most books are sticking to Green Bay -4, the juice on the pointspread is trending towards a move to -3.5 at some online markets as of Monday morning. Seattle was able to escape Philadelphia with a 17-9 win over the Eagles in the Wild Card Round, thanks in part to knocking QB Carson Wentz out of the game with a concussion after only two series.
If you like the Seahawks to cover in Lambeau this Sunday, grab all the points you can with Seattle right now. The Packers were able to slow down the Vikings Offense in Week 16, but this defense hasn’t faced many challenges down the stretch. The banged-up Seahawks could also return some key bodies on the offensive line as well (Duane Brown and Mike Iupati), so try to stay ahead of those injury updates.
SPREAD TO BET LATER: HOUSTON TEXANS (+10) AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Houston’s Wild Card Weekend win over Buffalo wasn’t pretty. There were bad decisions made by both teams on the field and the sideline but in the end, the Texans were able to get on the back of QB Deshaun Watson and squeeze one out in overtime.
This line opened as low as Houston +7.5 (most at +8) visiting the Chiefs but that quickly moved as high as +10 and many books are dealing a double-digit spread for this Divisional Round game in Kansas City. The Chiefs enjoyed a first-round bye and, as the No. 2 seed in the AFC, get to host this game at Arrowhead, which will be deafening come Sunday.
The Texans did earn a 31-24 victory over the Chiefs in K.C. back in Week 6 but Kansas City finished the season on a six-game winning run and posted a 5-0-1 ATS record in that span, playing its best football to finish the schedule. While this line made a big move, pushing from the dead number of -8 to -10 isn’t as risky. Houston backers can grab +10 and wait it out to see if you can get +10.5 once the public plays the Chiefs.
TOTAL TO BET NOW: UNDER 47.5 TENNESSEE TITANS AT BALTIMORE RAVENS
The total for Titans at Ravens opened as big as 48.5 and is on the way down, with the number dipping as low as 47 at some books. Both teams put up a pile of points in the second half of the schedule, but postseason football is a different beast.
Tennessee is coming of a grinding win over New England, in which it handed the ball off more than 70 percent of the time and controlled the clock for over 31 minutes. The Titans must take a similar approach this Saturday, pounding the Baltimore defense with RB Derrick Henry and keeping MVP Lamar Jackson on the sideline.
When the Ravens do get the ball, there’s no secret to their game plan. This playbook went with the run on more than 56 percent of its play calls this season, which should keep the game clock draining and leave little time for scoring.
Beyond the offenses, both teams have solid stop units as well. Tennessee handcuffed Tom Brady and the Patriots in the Wild Card Round and Baltimore allowed just four opponents to score more than 20 points all season. If you’re on the Under, get in on this number now.
TOTAL TO BET LATER: OVER 45 MINNESOTA VIKINGS AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Behind a methodical rushing game (almost 37 minutes in TOP) and persistent pass rush, the Vikings Defense looked good against the Saints, at least in the first three quarters of Sunday’s Wild Card game. Then, New Orleans stormed back and forced overtime.
San Francisco is very much cut from a similar cloth: control time and tempo with the run and disrupt the passing game with a rush that racked up 48 sacks on the season. That said, the Niners gave up some bigger offensive numbers in December and finished 3-1-1 Over/Under in the final five games.
Minnesota’s defense has been extremely inconsistent this season and got beat up on the road, allowing almost five points more per game as a visitor. This Over/Under opened 45.5 and has come down a tick to 45 points (even flashed a 44.5 at one book). If you think there are more points in store for this NFC Divisional Round battle in the Bay, take your time and see if you can land something sub-45.
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