Predicting a team’s opening day roster nearly a week before the official report date for pitchers and catchers is bound to be an exercise in disappointment.

Without knowing who (and there will be someone) shows up to camp with a nagging injury and before getting a sense of who truly is in the best shape of his life, forecasting the next six weeks requires a great deal of blind faith.

Still, with the Cardinals largely remaining stagnant this winter (subtract Pujols from the lineup, add Contreras, divide ERA by Molina), there’s a knowledge base from which to work in making educated guesses. Assuming perfect health — and what an assumption — here’s how things line up:

STARTING ROTATION

Locks: Jack Flaherty, Steven Matz, Miles Mikolas, Jordan Montgomery, Adam Wainwright

On The Roster Somewhere: Dakota Hudson

Not Quite Yet: Gordon Graceffo, Matthew Liberatore, Michael McGreevy, Jake Woodford

Despite fans calling for the contrary, the Cardinals enter 2023 with a group of starters unchanged by the winter. Hudson may not work quickly on the mound, but he can count to five fast enough, and he enters spring on the outside without a clear way in.

Graceffo could surprise and emerge as a reliever in much the same way Andre Pallante did last spring, but is likely to find himself in a similar position as Liberatore was entering 2022; his debut is coming.

Liberatore could surprise and show the ability to get Major League hitters out with his fastball, which would be a welcome development. Woodford could be surprised with a trade to a different organization which might give him a real shot to show his skills.

BULLPEN

Locks: Giovanny Gallegos, Ryan Helsley, Jordan Hicks, Andre Pallante, Chris Stratton

Probably, By Rule: Wilking Rodríguez, Drew VerHagen

Probably, By Skill: Zack Thompson

One Or Two Spots For A Lefty: Génesis Cabrera, Anthony Misiewicz, Packy Naughton, JoJo Romero, Andrew Suárez, Connor Thomas

Not Quite Yet: Ryan Loutos, Freddy Pacheco, Jake Walsh, Guillermo Zuniga

The right side of the bullpen is locked down, and could be one of the league’s best if Helsley and Pallante, in particular, are able to duplicate what they achieved last season.

Rodríguez, as a Rule 5 draft pick, has to be offered back to the Yankees if he doesn’t make the team, unless he’s on the injured list or a separate deal is reached between the teams. The Cardinals attempted to bring him into the fold directly from Mexico directly last season and are eager to see if his pitch data bears out results.

VerHagen has one more guaranteed year on his contract, and unless he has an atrocious spring, will get a chance to show that 2022 went south due to injury.

Thompson has the highest ceiling of the potential bullpen lefties and seemingly finished last year atop that depth chart, maintaining that spot through the winter. The Cardinals may yet prefer to give him a chance to start. Or, perhaps, he could be waiting to take over from Helsley, should the righty falter.

Wednesday’s minor trade to bring in Misiewicz and designate James Naile for assignment is a function of the Cardinals clearing the right side log jam by creating more competition on the left side. With one or two spots for six pitchers, the going will be tough. Cabrera will miss part of camp for the World Baseball Classic, which could put him in a tough spot.

If nothing else, this winter has featured a stockpiling of depth that should make for interesting roster battles as March winds down. Any of the four in the “not quite yet” category could surprise and seize an opportunity if presented with one.

CATCHERS

Locks: Willson Contreras, Andrew Knizner

Not Quite Yet: Iván Herrera

The Extra Vet: Tres Barrera

No drama behind the plate. Should either Contreras or Knizner miss a small amount of time, expect to see Barrera. For extended looks, count on Herrera, who will be given ample opportunity at Triple-A to show he can handle being Contreras’s caddy in 2024.

INFIELDERS

Locks: Nolan Arenado, Brendan Donovan, Tommy Edman, Paul Goldschmidt

I Guess: Paul DeJong

Probably: Nolan Gorman

Not Quite Yet: Masyn Winn

DeJong entering camp as still a Cardinal should be classified a mild upset, but given that he’s still owed $11 million, probably speaks to the difficulty in finding him a fresh start. With only José Fermín on the 40-man roster capable of filling in at shortstop, DeJong’s spot as a utility infielder seems largely secure, especially given that he’ll get reps at second and third as well.

Gorman is just shy of a lock, given that there are roster permutations in the outfield which could leave him without an obvious spot, but he has both incumbency and power on his side.

Winn has an opportunity to leave one of the strongest impressions in camp, given the playing time he’ll receive during the World Baseball Classic.

OUTFIELDERS

Locks: Dylan Carlson, Lars Nootbaar, Tyler O’Neill, Juan Yepez

Coin Flip: Alec Burleson

Maybe: Oscar Mercádo

Swing Away: Moisés Gómez, Jordan Walker

Carlson is the closest thing the Cardinals have to a pure centerfielder with a guaranteed spot, but they’ve declined the opportunity on multiple occasions this winter to say definitively that he’ll start there. Mercádo, in camp on a minor league deal, is indeed a strong defender in center, and given his existing rapport with Oli Marmol, could play his way into a spot as a defensive replacement.

There may not be sufficient at bats at DH for both Burleson and Gorman. One will be on the roster and the other likely starts at Memphis; Burleson’s defensive limitations make him a slight underdog to Gorman for that spot.

With Nootbaar and O’Neill heading to the WBC, Gómez and Walker will get ample opportunity to slug their way to St. Louis. Walker, the future, may have a steeper short-term hill to climb as he asserts himself defensively and the Cardinals quietly assert their roster flexibility. Gómez, less heralded and already with a 40-man spot, might have a more immediate shot.