What are the best 2021 over/under college football win totals?

Dan Wetzel, Pete Thamel and SI's Pat Forde pick some of their favorite over/under win totals for the 2021 college football season. Hear the full conversation on the Yahoo Sports College Podcast. Subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher or wherever you listen.

Video Transcript


DAN WETZEL: All right, we want to do a little futures betting here. We are deep, deep, deep in the off-season. So why not start thinking about how we can lose money in the fall?

PAT FORDE: So first pick, I am taking Iowa and the under. The total is 8 and 1/2. And Iowa is always in that realm, you know, under Kirk Ferentz. They're going to win seven, eight, nine. But 8 and 1/2 with this schedule. They open Indiana at Iowa State, two very tough games. Could lose them both.

If they're 0-2 there, then they-- they've started poorly before and rallied, but after that you also have Penn State from the East Division, so you've got Indiana and Penn State you've got to deal with. You are at Wisconsin. You're at Northwestern. Well, Northwestern is going to take a step back. That's not going to be easy.

Anyway, I can very easily find four losable games-- Indiana at Iowa State, Penn State at Wisconsin. Maybe you win one of those and that gets you on the right side of it, but then you've got to win all the rest of them. I'm going to suggest that they drop at least four games and end up with eight, so take the under with Iowa.

PETE THAMEL: As advertised, I'm going to I'm going to stay on brand. I scoured the list that Pat sent to us, and the one that jumped out at me was New Mexico.


PETE THAMEL: New Mexico at 4. So they open-- Houston Baptist, who's good, but they open Houston Baptist at home on a Thursday-- look forward to watching that September 2nd. Then they have New Mexico State. They go to Texas A&M. They'll take their beating and their check, and then they're at UTEP.

So I'm thinking New Mexico leaving September has got three wins. I think the Lobos with Terry Wilson-- because as we know, in this podcast, everything comes back to the state of Kentucky, right? So Terry Wilson, the old Wildcat quarterback is transferred to New Mexico. I certainly don't want to gift him the job over the other five quarterbacks who started for New Mexico last year, including a walk-on freshmen in their final game.

But let's just say they beat Houston Baptist, beat New Mexico State, and they win at UTEP. I think they find two more games in that league. I don't think that's just-- I don't think that's a stretch at all.

DAN WETZEL: All right, I'm going to take Michigan, the number is eight, I'm going to take the over.


DAN WETZEL: I am going to take the over.

PAT FORDE: Really?

DAN WETZEL: On Michigan.


DAN WETZEL: I think that last year was a disaster. There is a lot of-- it's shaded by how bad last year and the perception that Harbaugh has been a disaster at Michigan. When they are not a disaster, they just can't win the Big Ten. And there is a big gap between beating Ohio State and making a playoff or a Big Ten title, and winning eight-- seven games. That's what they're counting on here.

All right, you look at this schedule. Now they're going to have to count on quarterback play. They haven't had it. J.J. McCarthy's coming in as the hotshot freshman. Maybe that's it. They get-- they got Western Michigan. They get Washington at home, is obviously a swing game. Then they get NIU, Rutgers. I'm looking at this is at Wisconsin is an L. At Ohio State at home is an L.

Other than that, at Penn State, I don't know what kind of Penn State team there is. Northwestern lost a ton. Indiana, we'll see how good they are. I think there's plenty of places for them to get one, let alone two more wins in this thing. There's a bunch of fairly easy games they should win. I think they get to 9 wins. I certainly think they get to 8, and it's at least as a push, I'm not really worried about 7-5, that's why I take them.

I think it's a value bet. You're going to get-- you're going to get your push. Maybe you get-- get to 9. That's 8 and 1/2, might not make this pick, but I'm going to take the over on Michigan at eight.

PAT FORDE: Wow. Fit Dan Wetzel for a new pair of khakis. He's on board.