Berry's Dynasty Superflex Rookie Draft: Round 1
Matthew Berry, Connor Rogers and Jay Croucher each give four picks in the first round of a Dynasty Superflex Rookie Draft, discussing why Bijan Robinson is the clear No. 1 pick, how the top WRs stack up and more.
Ran up through here.
CONNOR ROGERS: So you're back on the highway. We have a Dynasty Super Flex Rookie Draft. And we're obviously going to start with round one. Us three our alternating picks here. This is going to be-- this is a lot of fun. Because this is a good way to break down the value of the rookie class, hopefully a lot of fun.
MATTHEW BERRY: Lot of fun.
CONNOR ROGERS: For clarity, this is--
MATTHEW BERRY: Jay, did it seem like Connor-- Connor felt like he was just saying that. [INAUDIBLE] lot of fun.
JAY CROUCHER: Took the under on fun. Under point five fun. Yeah. After that.
MATTHEW BERRY: You know what I did at the Kentucky Derby? I interviewed the last year's Indy 500 winner.
JAY CROUCHER: Oh really?
MATTHEW BERRY: Yeah. Marcus Ericsson.
CONNOR ROGERS: What'd you ask?
JAY CROUCHER: Ask him about milk?
MATTHEW BERRY: I. Did not ask him about milk I asked him about-- asked him about his Derby experiences. I asked him who he liked in the Derby. I also asked him-- I thought this was a good question. Like, because the Indy 500 is a race unlike any other, and he won that one. And the Kentucky Derby is a horse race like any other, like what advice would you give to the jockeys in terms of racing in this race versus all the other races they've done in their lives. And so he gave a very thoughtful answer there.
CONNOR ROGERS: I thought that was a good answer. I thought that was a good question.
JAY CROUCHER: He just said good luck? That's it?
CONNOR ROGERS: What? You just said he gave a thoughtful answer and that was it.
MATTHEW BERRY: Yeah, yeah, well, I had like a minute, you know? This is not "60 Minutes." You know what I mean? You keep moving on.
CONNOR ROGERS: A sit down at the Kentucky Derby?
MATTHEW BERRY: It wasn't exactly like, yeah I'm not suddenly Roy Firestone at the Kentucky Derby. Like hey.
JAY CROUCHER: Very stern.
MATTHEW BERRY: Yeah, exactly. Let me-- yeah, I'm not-- whatever.
JAY CROUCHER: I like my first pick.
CONNOR ROGERS: Yes. Dynasty Super Flex Rookie Draft, for those that don't play in the Dynasty Super Flex, it's two quarterbacks. So the value on quarterbacks is at a premium.
MATTHEW BERRY: No, no, hang on for a second.
CONNOR ROGERS: Oh, boy.
MATTHEW BERRY: Let me explain this. All right.
JAY CROUCHER: Milk man has the floor.
CONNOR ROGERS: Just saying a Super Flex is two quarterbacks is not enough.
MATTHEW BERRY: Well, by the way, because it's not. A Super Flex means you have the ability to play two quarterbacks. A Super Flex league is in essence you're playing a quarterback, two running backs, two or three wide receivers, a tight end, and then usually like four flexes, one of whom can be a quarterback.
So again, that's usually how a Super Flex works. The ideal scenario is that you're starting two quarterbacks, right?
CONNOR ROGERS: You're in big trouble if you're not.
MATTHEW BERRY: Right. But my point is, is it's not-- a two quarterback league is technically different than a Super Flex league. We are also, by the way, you know, Dynasty leagues, if you're not in one, please join one. It is awesome. They are amazing. Really, really fun.
But what I will tell you is that every Dynasty league is different. So what we've chosen for this exercise is a Super Flex using PPR scoring and just rookies. Now again, as we go through this and we talk about this, the idea is that like I'm a big believer in, because it's Dynasty, I'm less worried about team role and more about just the talent of the player.
Again, we saw it with Breece Hall last year. We saw it with Ken Walker. People were concerned about the landing spot. And obviously both ended up fine until Hall got injured. But it is worth noting that , so we're doing this based on ours, but your rules might be different and everything like that. And so, I prefer to, in this particular case like, if you're in a league where you have to play four wide receivers, team need, meaning your fantasy team need might take precedence over quote unquote talent.
JAY CROUCHER: Sure.
CONNOR ROGERS: Jay, you had the number one pick. And listen, there hasn't been much of a debate around this in any Dynasty draft.
JAY CROUCHER: Yeah, taking Bijan Robinson with the first pick. This wasn't difficult. I think the big question is in redraft is Bijan maybe go one, two in redraft, honestly?
CONNOR ROGERS: I don't think he goes that high. And I think it's Bijan. I don't think it's be Bijan.
JAY CROUCHER: Bijan. The French pronunciation.
CONNOR ROGERS: You pronounce the R in Robinson. That's another conversation for another day.
MATTHEW BERRY: I think with Bijan-- what's amazing is most people that come from another country do much of the English language. But you're Australian. It's not like you're coming over from France or Italy or something like that. In essence, you have the same language as us.
JAY CROUCHER: Yeah, my wife, who's not Australian, she's from Sweden. She was making fun of me last night at dinner ordering the Sangiovese, which apparently is not how you say that one ether. Sangiovese. Anyway, Bijan Robinson. I just think Tyler Allgeier had one 1,100 rushing yards last year behind an amazing run blocking offensive line, the coach with a religious commitment to running the ball in a bad division.
Where Bijan, I think, is just going to get just an incredible amount of usage. He's got the talent. What past 20 years three best running back prospects Adrian Peterson, Saquon Barkley, Bijan Robinson?
CONNOR ROGERS: I'd say so. And I think Bijan might even be better than Saquon.
JAY CROUCHER: Yeah, exactly. And the other thing, I've had a bet on a Bijan Robinson to win Offensive Player of the Year, not rookie, Offensive Player of the Year at 60 to 1.
CONNOR ROGERS: Wow.
JAY CROUCHER: I think that this guy could win the rushing title. He could have 2,000 yards from scrimmage on a team that could win the division, just because it's a bad division. So yeah, Bijan was number one, not difficult for me.
MATTHEW BERRY: And the other thing that I think will get talked about with Bijan Robinson as we get closer, but it hasn't been talked about really right now, is the fact that he's so versatile in the passing games. Like there's a scenario where it's not just like, oh, this guy is really good, and he's going to get 25 carries a game.
Like they could, and I think they will, use him the way that they use Cordarrelle Patterson the last two years, especially two years ago, when Patterson was kind of a fantasy superstar. He's running long. I mean, he's running fly routes. You know, he's running slot passes.
They're also giving it to him at the goal line. I mean like, he's basically Cordarrelle Patterson, just younger and better and faster and more versatile. I mean like, so I think Bijan Robinson should be very special, no issue with a pick there.
CONNOR ROGERS: There hasn't been a lot of debate at number one. But there has been, I will say, at number two.
MATTHEW BERRY: I will say I am in a Dynasty rookie draft at the moment. And the person who had to pick one is a well-known fantasy analyst, did not take Bijan Robinson one.
JAY CROUCHER: Took Anthony Richardson?
MATTHEW BERRY: Took Anthony Richardson
CONNOR ROGERS: I've heard a little bit of this.
MATTHEW BERRY: Yeah. Took Anthony Richardson, who's I'm going to take. I'm going to take here, pick two again. I just think Dynasty, quarterbacks are so important. In Dynasty, you're thinking about not just this year, but you're thinking about the future. There's a wide range of outcomes for Anthony Richardson, probably a wider range of outcomes than there are for Bryce Young or CJ Stroud.
But for me the ceiling is what's important here. Richardson has a scenario where he's the best player in fantasy in three years. Like, I mean that's within the range of outcomes. And so I think that upside is worth it.
I like the fact that he's going to the Colts with a good-- like he's not going to a team that has to completely rebuild. There's pieces around him already. So it's just a matter of getting him up to NFL speed. So give me Anthony Richardson at two.
CONNOR ROGERS: Was that drafter you were talking about very quarterback desperate or they just loved the player?
MATTHEW BERRY: Both. I think both. Quarterback player, I haven't talked to the particular person about why they drafted Anthony Richardson over Bijan Robinson. They're definitely quarterback desperate. But at the time, not as-- at the time they had Herbert and Carr, so not like crazy quarterback desperate. They ended up trading Herbert later.
But yeah, I mean it was a team that was drafting first for a reason. So they had needs all over the place. If I was in charge of that team, I would have drafted Bijan Robinson.
CONNOR ROGERS: So at number three, I took Bryce Young, premium on quarterback here. I look at Bryce Young, and think, listen, they don't have the weapons yet for him to have this kind of production. But Joe Burrow is what you hope he can be from a production standpoint.
He's not going to run a lot. He's an excellent thrower. He's very accurate. He's a highly efficient player. He can extend plays. It doesn't mean he's a runner. But he can scramble and extend plays. Carolina doesn't have the passing weapons yet for him to explode. But this is a pick where you think in year three, he could be one of the best quarterbacks in fantasy. So I was pretty content with Bryce Young at three.
MATTHEW BERRY: Yeah, I think in a Super Flex league you're going quarterback heavy in rookies, especially with guys like with Young. Stroud should come off the board here fairly soon. And then obviously Richardson as well. The only thing I'll just say here, I don't know if there's anything you want to add on, Bryce Young.
So I was just going to say is, let's like, as we continue the draft, the premise is here is not that we're doing a three man draft. Like in essence, it's Jay's pick now. And you're going to be drafting the first pick for team four, not the second pick for team one.
JAY CROUCHER: Yeah. And so given that did think about CJ Stroud at four because of the premium on quarterbacks in Super Flex. So I went Jahmyr Gibbs. And the reason why it's just that I think you can speak to this better than I can, Connor, but in terms of pass catching running backs and throwing with the draft, I mean, he could be Christian McCaffrey. And there's not many people that you can say that about.
So I particularly think as well with the team fit. I think with running backs, it's more important as well for Dynasty to focus on more of the immediate. Because you just don't know where these guys-- what these guys are going to be in four or five years, because it just projecting out that far with running backs is fraught with peril.
So he goes to an amazing situation. Clearly they believe in him if you saw the reaction in the draft room from Dan Campbell. They move on D'Andre Swift. Dave Montgomery's presence is kind of annoying. But at the same time Gibbs' talent I think is such that he's going to be a weapon from day one.
CONNOR ROGERS: Yeah, it's a PPR league. And I think his usage will be the same as Alvin Kamara's within two years. So I think this is a great pick.
MATTHEW BERRY: I mean Swift finished as a top 15 fantasy running back and had at least 45 receptions each the last three years, despite missing time, despite not playing a ton of snaps. And so the role is amazing there. Also depends on, again, as we talked about, team need. Like we're doing a rookie draft. But we're not-- we haven't determined, is this a start up rookie draft? Or is this just like a rookie draft for an established long standing?
So right, if I was like a team that felt really good about my quarterback situation and I had good young quarterbacks, and I'm in a win now mode, I would take Gibbs over Stroud too. I have no issue with that, right? But I do think that if we were doing just a pure start up, I would probably take Stroud over Gibbs.
I prefer in Dynasty, quarterbacks and wide receivers over running backs just because obviously the longevity of their career. But now I'm picking for the first pick for team five and I will take CJ Stroud. Again, we think probably the most-- it depends on where you sit on Bryce Young. He's obviously off the table here.
But either before or after Bryce Young, the most pro ready quarterback coming out this year. Houston, Houston has a better offensive line than you think. They're trying to get him some weapons. It's going to be a little bit of a tough sledding there with his pass catchers. They have high hopes for Tank Dell. Maybe Nico Collins can emerge.
They do have Dalton Schultz there. They should have a good run game with Pierce and company. But I'm betting on, I'm betting on the front office and a new regime in Houston to build around CJ Stroud. So given the fact that everyone else that's off the table, Richardson and Young especially, give me CJ Stroud.
CONNOR ROGERS: So the top three quarterbacks are gone, not surprising there. And the top two running backs are gone as well. Guys, this is where I just go talent. I went with Jaxon Smith-Njigba. He was my number one wide receiver.
It was a no brainer for me at number six. I did my first Dynasty draft of the year last night. I got him at number seven. I was very surprised by that. So he's in my opinion, being slept on at this point, because people are looking at DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett in the now.
In Dynasty that is the worst outlook to have with him. When you think JSN is probably their number two wide receiver within two to three years instead, and a valuable slot piece now. Berry, I know you are very high on Jason in your rookie rankings this year as well.
MATTHEW BERRY: Talented kid. Talented kid who's got a quarterback here, and to your point, I mean, look, they threw to the slot a lot last year. I mean, usually that was Tyler Lockett. So but, I mean, I think JSN, again, we talk about longevity. Give me-- like I think you've got a steal here. I think team six got a steal here.
Again it's Super Flex so you want the quarterbacks here. But in a start up, I probably would have I would have taken JSN over Gibbs, just again the longevity of a wide receiver versus a running back here. So you know he's got a quarterback and some older wide receivers around him. There's not a-- two years from now, if we're talking about the fact JSN is the leading receiver on the Seahawks, it wouldn't shock me.
JAY CROUCHER: Yeah, pick seven weighed up Jordan Addison versus Quentin Johnston. Ultimately went with Addison. I just prefer the context a little bit more. I think that he'll be more productive from the get go. I think that the Vikings offense should be better than it was last year.
I don't think it quite produced at the talent level that it had. You love being opposite Justin Jefferson. Just means that you're never going to get double covered in Minnesota. Also I think their offensive line is stronger than people might give them credit for. When Christian Darrisaw was out there, they did have a good offensive line for the first time in a long time for Kirk Cousins. So just like Addison's context, like the talent, and I picked him at seven.
MATTHEW BERRY: Yeah, you know which is nice, because you nailed the first pick. You screwwed up the second one. But you came back strong. And Addison I think was the correct pick there. So well done. I agree with you.
Again, over 100 targets vacated by Adam Thielen. He should have a role immediately. It's an offensive minded coach. It's an offensive minded system. He's also got a good quarterback there.
We'll see if KJ Osborne takes the next step here. But to me Addison should be the number one wide-- after JSN, should be the number one wide receiver in both redraft and Dynasty. So I think that correctly. So with those two guys gone, I agree with you, your pick should have been between Jordan Addison, Quentin Johnston. You took Addison.
So that leaves with Johnston, look last year both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams missed 11 games. Combined they missed 11 games. Both guys, Keenan Allen's on the wrong side of 30. Mike Williams has suffered injuries throughout his career. And Quentin Johnston is just a big, tall vertical threat. Is again, you talk about pairing with a quarterback.
Does he have someone like-- landing in a spot with what we expect to be a good offense. I'm a Kellen Moore fan. I like Kellen Moore. And so getting Johnston in there, I don't know how much production he's going to have this year as long as Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are healthy. But I do think it's a great landing spot for him.
Justin Herbert's like, you know, he's a superstar and he's young. And so they're going to grow together. This is great.
CONNOR ROGERS: Pick number nine, I took our first tight end off the board and went with Dalton Kincaid. It's just the fact, how we open the show, a special pass catcher.
MATTHEW BERRY: I didn't think you were paying attention at the top of the show. I was hoping you would sneak back around to me. But thanks, you were actually paying attention.
CONNOR ROGERS: Oh absolutely.
MATTHEW BERRY: So Jay is the only one who doesn't listen.
CONNOR ROGERS: Actually correct, yes. I'm always locked in. Dalton Kincaid at number nine, because you are probably getting potential receiver usage and production at a position that it's hard to find right now, Berry. That's how I looked at this. Kincaid's got great hands. He's a good red zone threat. He's a good really short intermediate threat as well.
So if the Bills-- he could really be the Bills' number two pass catcher. And we're not that far away from that, maybe not as a rookie, but we're not far away from that. So I tried to get some distinction at the tight end position by taking him this early.
MATTHEW BERRY: And by the way, this league is not tight end premium. But if it was, a lot of Dynasty leagues are tight end premium where you get a point an a half per reception for tight ends versus just one for other pass catchers. But if it was tight end premium, you could make an argument for him a couple spots higher.
Like, I probably still would take JSN over him, but you could make an argument for him ahead of Addison and Johnston.
JAY CROUCHER: Yep, they're great. 10, weighed up between Devon Achane and Zach Charbonnet went with Achane in the end, more of a home run swing for a home run player. Just kind of believe in the Dolphins infrastructure a little bit more than Seattle. And the main thing is that, just believe in not having Ken Walker there. And I think that Achane has more of a path to kind of premium usage in front of Mostert and Wilson, who I don't think are going to be there in two, three years, you would expect. So Achane was the pick there for me. We know Mike McDaniel loves him.
MATTHEW BERRY: Yeah, look, I mean, I was actually hoping Achane would fall to me. I was hoping you were going to take Charbonnet. So I would get Achane But look I've already said it throughout the show, I love me some Devon Achane, like absolutely love him.
And I'm annoyed because I think the hype on him is going to keep putting him up draft boards. But certainly, he lands in a great situation with a coach who desperately wanted him. And there's to your point, there's a clear path to playing time given the injury history of Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr.
So it's now to me at pick 11. So first pick for team 11. And I will go Zach Charbonnet. We talked about this, like on draft night. You immediately think like, I can't believe he's going there with Ken Walker. And then you're like, well, you look a little bit closer, and a lot of Ken Walker's production came on big runs.
Like if you take out those big runs, it doesn't look as rosy. He had the lowest success rate among running backs with over 100 plus carries last season. I mean, again, it's just like he either ran for 65 yards or like negative two. And so Walker, who, for whatever reason, they didn't seem to really trust in the third down passing down role.
Like he played on less than 30% of third downs. And even though Travis Homer is now in Chicago, they still have DJ Dallas, Charbonnet is a better pass catcher than Ken Walker, I think. And so there's a chance Pete Carroll's already come out and said like, it's going to be a battle to be who the guy is. So this is more of a bet on talent. Love Charbonnet's talent, than it is landing spot. Again, the example I gave, Breece Hall, everyone was like, Jets, bad offensive line, bad offense. Michael Carter's there. This is the worst landing spot ever. And then he probably would have been a top five fantasy running back had he stayed healthy the full year.
CONNOR ROGERS: And the reality is you're one more. Kenneth Walker injury away from having one of the best pieces in the fantasy landscape at running back in Charbonnet. And Seattle offensive line is going to be really, really good. I'll close out round one for us here and go back to tight end with Michael Mayer.
I just valued him too highly in this draft. Great red zone threat. He's caught 16 touchdowns over the last two seasons. He was a possession monster. Once again, this would really dictate where your roster is at if this wasn't a start up league. If you needed a tight end though, I think Mayer is a future top six tight end in the league fantasy wise, because of his possession in red zone ability. So I valued him in round one here to close things out.
We will recap first round picks right here. Obviously Jay started us off with Bijan Robinson. Berry took Anthony Richardson, number two overall, very popular theme with his rushing ability and ceiling. I went Bryce Young.
Jay went back to the running back well with Jahmyr Gibbs for team number four. Berry took Stroud number five. And then I got Jackson Smith-Njigba, our first wide receiver off the board at number six. The second half of round one, team number seven, Jay had them going Jordan Addison. Barry went Quentin Johnston as our run on wide receivers continued.
Our first tight end of the board was Dalton Kincaid, with his receiving ability. And then the next tier of running backs began with Devon Achane. Sneaking into the top 10, Zach Charbonnet, even sharing that backfield with Kenneth Walker for now, still going in the first round. And Michael Mayer at 12 to team number 12.