Berry would take Garrett Wilson over Olave, London
Matthew Berry, Connor Rogers and Jay Croucher present a handful of fantasy football trifectas, discussing which players would win/place/show among second year WRs, rookie QBs and much more.
CONNOR ROGERS: Our first one here, second-year wide receivers. Obviously, we are going to have three players for each one. Second-year wide receivers are Chris Olave, Drake London, and Garrett Wilson.
MATTHEW BERRY: OK. So win, place, and show. Obviously, "win" is first place. "Win" is first place. "Place" is second place. "Show" is third, for people that are not familiar with horseracing vernacular the way I have become in the last 20 minutes.
All right, so "win--" I'm going to say Garrett Wilson. I mean, listen, I have as a top 10 wide receiver, 25% target share last season with a--
CONNOR ROGERS: Like carousel of quarterbacks.
MATTHEW BERRY: To be kind, how about inconsistent quarterback play.
CONNOR ROGERS: Yes.
MATTHEW BERRY: And now, he gets number 12, who's going to be number 8. But Aaron Rodgers, obviously, a massive upgrade for Garrett Wilson. He's the "win." "Place--" I'm going to say Chris Olave. Double-digit fantasy points in 11 different games last year. Now, he gets Derek Carr.
Derek Carr is a very good deep ball thrower. And I think his game actually sets up really nicely for Chris Olave. I think they'll run a lot of play action with the running backs, as well. So for me, Carr, who was top five in deep ball rate and deep completions over the last two years, is a perfect antidote for Olave.
He's "place," which means "show" is Drake London. Again, they've been super run heavy. And drafting Bijan Robinson in the first round tells me they're going to continue to be run heavy. I just don't-- I love Drake London. I just don't know that the Falcons do in their passing game.
CONNOR ROGERS: Jay, any disagreements here, or are you in line?
JAY CROUCHER: No, I'm in line. And I do think that Olave-- I thought Olave had every bit as good a season as Wilson last year, maybe even a better season, just on, like, a per route run metric, just because he missed some time. So his stats didn't look quite as good.
But just the upgrade in quarterback for Wilson takes him up a level that Olave I don't think quite can match. And then, yeah, London's going to be three. And it's Desmond Ridder versus Derek Carr and Aaron Rodgers. Sorry, Desmond, but not in that class.
MATTHEW BERRY: Or maybe Taylor Heinicke.
JAY CROUCHER: OK. Yeah, a bit outside.
MATTHEW BERRY: Don't count out Heinicke, baby.
CONNOR ROGERS: Our next fantasy trifecta is running backs on new teams. In this one, we have new Philadelphia Eagle, DeAndre Swift. We have new Carolina Panther, former Philadelphia Eagle, Miles Sanders, and then new Detroit Lion, David Montgomery. What do you like here, Berry?
MATTHEW BERRY: I don't know that I love any of them, candidly. I'll be honest with you. I don't love any of them. But if I have to pick one, I'm going to say Miles Sanders for the "win." He's my running back 23. Remember, the Panthers were top five in rush rate last year. They ran a ton.
And with Bryce Young under center, that's my expectation, as well, is that they're going to want to ease in the rookie. And so the Panthers, who have a really good offensive line, an underrated offensive line, should be able to get Miles Sanders. Remember, reunited with Frank Reich in Carolina. It's just him and Chuba Hubbard.
So then, I'm going to say David Montgomery. Look, I've run Montgomery at 25. I've been clear about this, and I'll be-- I'll be clear about it for the entire offseason as we see more of the scene here at Churchill Downs. Somebody just got to second base there.
CONNOR ROGERS: That was a butt slap.
MATTHEW BERRY: Yeah, a little bit of a-- yeah.
CONNOR ROGERS: And now-- and an arm around.
MATTHEW BERRY: And now an arm around. All right. Listen--
CONNOR ROGERS: Come back to set.
MATTHEW BERRY: Nothing brings out--
CONNOR ROGERS: Come back to set.
MATTHEW BERRY: No, nothing brings out romance like-- like horses. What I will say is that David Montgomery, I want-- give me Jahmyr Gibbs over David Montgomery when you're picking Lions running backs here. But Montgomery does get a ton of work. And we know, with the Jamaal Williams role, that there is a lot of goal line touches to be had.
And then finally, DeAndre Swift. He's my "show," or third place of these guys. It's a better move for him, just getting out of Detroit, where he was clearly third in line. But now, he goes to Philadelphia, where he's a threat to be vulture by Jalen Hurts. He's competing with Rashaad Penny and Gainwell and Scott.
And oh, by the way, they don't throw to the running back last year. That was the thing, is that DeAndre Swift had at least 45 receptions each of the last three seasons. I don't think he gets there in Philadelphia, unless there's an injury to a lot of guys because they just don't throw to the running back. They don't need to when you've got AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert.
JAY CROUCHER: Yeah, three really good offensive lines here, so that makes good situations for all of these teams. I think Swift, he probably has the highest upside and the lowest downside just because I think he's the most talented guy out of these three. But also, he's just got the most competition, where you-- I mean, sometimes, you just go and look at the depth charts for the positions for running back.
Like, no, he's got to compete with Jalen Hurts. Like, Jalen Hurts is the issue for him, more so, I think, than Rashaad Penny or Kenneth Gainwell or whomever. I think Sanders is the safest. And you have to think, as well, back to D'Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard. They were great for stretches last season. You didn't know which one to go with each week.
And also, Frank Reich, a really good play-caller. And Jonathan Taylor's 2021 legendary season was with Frank Reich. So we know that he can extrapolate a really good running game.
CONNOR ROGERS: All right, rather than us decide the next category, we have a fan on the grounds that'll do that.
- Matthew, I'm a great admirer of your show. I'm a diehard Colts fan. Can you give me some updates on our quarterback?
CONNOR ROGERS: Admirer, there, Berry.
MATTHEW BERRY: Yeah, I appreciate it. That guy feels like--
CONNOR ROGERS: Look at the grin.
MATTHEW BERRY: --he's seen some horses.
CONNOR ROGERS: Yes.
MATTHEW BERRY: That guy-- he's not like me. This is my first horse race. That guy has seen some races.
CONNOR ROGERS: I think he's been here for a little bit.
MATTHEW BERRY: So are we doing a cat-- we're doing a--
CONNOR ROGERS: Let's transition it to include the rookie quarterbacks then.
MATTHEW BERRY: OK, sure.
CONNOR ROGERS: Because obviously, he is talking about Anthony Richardson being drafted by the Colts. So Anthony Richardson is in this one. Of course, with the two guys taken ahead of him--
MATTHEW BERRY: And we got-- we got horses coming behind us, by the way. So I got--
CONNOR ROGERS: So this is a horse 2 for me.
MATTHEW BERRY: I got-- all right. There we go. There we go. I got horse 3.
CONNOR ROGERS: You have 3.
MATTHEW BERRY: I have horse 3.
JAY CROUCHER: I'm on 6.
CONNOR ROGERS: 6.
MATTHEW BERRY: Where's 3? Is 3 coming around the bend? Where's 3?
JAY CROUCHER: I think 3's lost.
MATTHEW BERRY: Give me 3. 3's in last?
JAY CROUCHER: I don't-- I don't know.
MATTHEW BERRY: Ah, it's outrageous. Picking losers left and right over here.
CONNOR ROGERS: I have no idea where the standings are right now.
MATTHEW BERRY: I told my producer, Stephen D'Agostino to make bets for me because I was in a derby production meeting. And if he had won, I was going to take credit for it. But if he lost, I'm going to blame it on him. And they're coming down the stretch right here. We'll talk about Anthony Richardson in a second. But here we go. They're coming down the stretch. And who won? Did 3 win?
JAY CROUCHER: I think 1 won.
CONNOR ROGERS: Ugh. Brutal.
JAY CROUCHER: Well, you don't win them all.
CONNOR ROGERS: All right. So--
MATTHEW BERRY: I want to make sure 3 lost. Did 3-- yeah, there goes-- there's 1, 2, 10. 3's in fourth. I got fourth place. Circle Back Jack won.
CONNOR ROGERS: Man, I was close with horse 2. Tough scene. So we will do the rookie quarterback.
JAY CROUCHER: Very dramatic.
CONNOR ROGERS: Thanks. Yes, extremely.
MATTHEW BERRY: [SIGHS]
CONNOR ROGERS: Obviously, asked about Anthony Richardson-- the two guys drafted ahead of him, Bryce Young, CJ Stroud. What do you do with these three?
MATTHEW BERRY: Anthony Richardson for the win, right? He'd be my first place. Honestly, the rushing is so--
CONNOR ROGERS: Valuable?
MATTHEW BERRY: --dynamic and valuable. Like, I think that there's a chance that you see-- Jalen Hurts' rookie year, he played four games. Or Lamar Jackson's, I think he played seven or eight his rookie year. But you think about the quarterbacks, those two guys-- even maybe Josh Allen-- they all profile the same, which is incredible athlete, great mobility, still a little bit raw in terms of their passing production.
But I think, given that offensive line, given the play calling in Indianapolis, Richardson's the guy that will have the most immediate fantasy value this year. Then I have Bryce Young. Again, with Carolina, adding Mingo, Thielen, DJ Chark, good passing game coach in Frank Reich. For me, he's the number two guy.
And then CJ Stroud, third place in "show," just because-- I mean, Nico Collins tanked out. Like, who's he throwing to?
JAY CROUCHER: You don't like Nico?
MATTHEW BERRY: Not compared to the weapons of the other guys. I just think Houston's just a team that just is devoid of talent, right? And they're getting there. They're building something. They're building it. But and I do like Tank Dell. But, like, compared--
CONNOR ROGERS: Just a number three. Yeah.
MATTHEW BERRY: He's the number three guy, just comparatively, in terms of fantasy value. Sure.
JAY CROUCHER: Yeah, I think it depends on the format. And it depends on, also, what you need in a given draft, where Anthony Richardson, he should absolutely go first in Dynasty because of his upside. If you're drafting a third quarterback in a Superflex league, two QBs, and you just want some upside, then Anthony Richardson is clearly the guy.
They also might just not play this year, Anthony Richardson, because they do have Gardner Minshew, who is an upper echelon backup quarterback. So Bryce Young, I think he is the safest. But Richardson, if you're swinging for the fences, then he's clearly the guy.
And then Stroud, I don't think you can really make an argument for him because I think in terms of Fantasy, he's probably just the worst version of Bryce Young.
MATTHEW BERRY: The pick of Richardson is with the assumption that he starts game one or fairly soon after. The Colts know Gardner Minshew isn't the answer. And so in a division that candidly is winnable, we'll see what happens in camp.
But I think if they-- that's what I said. I think if you think about Lamar Jackson's rookie year, where they just didn't let him throw that much, but they ran kind of a very simple offense because they waited for Lamar Jackson, who eventually would, very soon after, would win an MVP. But that's what I could see them doing with Richardson.
CONNOR ROGERS: Our last category, rookie wide receivers. This is for Redraft here, Berry. This is not Dynasty-specific. And we have Jordan Addison, Quentin Johnston, Jackson Smith-Njigba, three players that were drafted all in that same cluster in round one.
MATTHEW BERRY: This may surprise you, but for the win, I'm going with Jordan Addison. We've talked about this. What a great landing spot it was for him. With Adam Thielen leaving, that's 107 targets up for grabs. Adam Thielen ran the second-most routes of any wide receiver in the NFL last year.
Kirk Cousins is back. Kevin O'Connell is back. It's going to still be a fantasy-friendly, pass-happy offense. And even when you say, well, KJ Osborn is going to be the number two-- or even Hockenson, if you want to say the number two pass catcher-- the fact of the matter is, is Osborne, last year, is the number three wide receiver on this Vikings team-- saw 90 targets.
So I think Addison, who's a talented player, he would be my "win." For "place," I'm going to go with JSN. Geno did leave the-- did lead the NFL in completion percentage last year. He's going to play in the slot. Geno does like the slot.
But again, you've got Metcalf and Lockett there. Quentin Johnston's my wide receiver 50, and he would be "show" for me. As long as Mike Williams, Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler are on the team and healthy-- we don't know Ekeler's status as of this broadcast-- but Johnston feels to me like he's probably like the fourth option. Josh Palmer, as well, will get some run. Really love the landing spot, Dynasty-wise, for Quentin Johnston, but he's third place for me for this year.
JAY CROUCHER: Yeah, I think Addison is the guy. And he's the favorite in the market to lead rookies in receiving yards, so that matches up. I think that JSN, there's just-- there's so many guys there. And also, Pete Carroll loves to run the ball. And so they just drafted a running back in the second round to go with the guy that just came second in Offensive Rookie of the Year in Ken Walker.
So I think that's a little bit crowded. I think Johnston might just have a bit more upside just because-- so that way, he could become-- there are worlds where he could be Justin Herbert's number two guy with how much that Keenan Allen and Mike Williams get hurt. So I might even have him number two. But I agree that Addison is the guy.
CONNOR ROGERS: Yeah, it'll be interesting, just what injury impacts these guys because Quentin Johnston really needs an injury in front of him to be bumped up. But like you said, Berry, it's hard to disagree with Addison being number one because he's one of those two or three guys that doesn't need that. He just gets to camp. And it's like, hey, congrats, you're probably our number two, unless they really do love KJ Osborn that way.
So all right. Well, in just a--
MATTHEW BERRY: I wish I--
CONNOR ROGERS: Yeah, Berry?
MATTHEW BERRY: I wish I had a hat.
CONNOR ROGERS: You really--
MATTHEW BERRY: I feel like I-- I feel like I really dropped the ball.
CONNOR ROGERS: I can tell you've been pondering that.
MATTHEW BERRY: I feel like I dropped the ball. I feel like I should have worn a hat on set today. I just-- I just want to apologize to my public. Here's a bunch of people that also aren't wearing hats.
CONNOR ROGERS: Well, surprise.
MATTHEW BERRY: I've seen a lot more women wearing hats than men. But some men are wearing-- look, that guy's got a hat. There you go.