MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the Bellator’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for Bellator 266.

Bellator 266 takes place Saturday at SAP Center in San Jose, Calif. The main card airs on Showtime following prelims on MMA Junkie.

Phil Davis (22-6 MMA, 4-3 BMMA)

Phil Davis

Staple info:

• Height: 6'2" Age: 36 Weight: 205 lbs. Reach: 78"

• Last fight: Decision loss to Vadim Nemkov (April 16, 2021)

• Camp: Alliance MMA (California)

• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing

• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info: + Former Bellator light heavy champion + 4x Division I All-American wrestler + NCAA wrestling champion 2008 (197 lbs.) + Bellator light heavyweight grand prix winner + 6 KO victories + 5 submission wins + 6 first-round finishes + Consistent pact and pressure + Improved boxing ability + Diverse kicking acumen + Excellent wrestling ability ^ In the open or against the fence + Superb transitional grappler ^ Rides, strikes and submissions +/- 5-0-1 against career southpaws

Yoel Romero (13-5 MMA, 0-0 BMMA)

Mar 7, 2020; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Israel Adesanya (red gloves) fights Yoel Romero (blue gloves) during UFC 248 at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

Staple info:

• Height: 6'0" Age: 44 Weight: 205 lbs. Reach: 75.5"

• Last fight: Decision loss to Israel Adesanya (March 7, 2020)

• Camp: American Top Team (Florida)

• Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing

• Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info: + Olympic silver medalist (wrestling) + Multiple wrestling accolades + 11 KO victories + 4 first-round finishes + KO power + Incredibly athletic and agile ^ Closes distance quickly + Deceptive tempo changes + Variates looks and attack levels ^ Dangerous flying knees off fakes + Accurate left cross and right hook + Superb wrestling ability + Difficult to control in transit ^ Springs and scrambles to safety +/- Coming off of an 18-month layoff

Point of interest: Dancing with the devil

Mar 7, 2020; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Israel Adesanya (red gloves) fights Yoel Romero (blue gloves) during UFC 248 at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

The main event for Bellator 266 features an interesting light heavyweight matchup between two fighters who tend to find themselves in close rounds. Always partial to playing on the outside, [autotag]Phil Davis[/autotag] has traditionally insulated himself through his long-range kicking game. Carrying an almost preternatural sense for distance, Davis has been able to utilize an array of kicks to keep his opposition at bay and help dictate the terms of the fight. In recent years, Davis has quietly upgraded his boxing skills with the help of Azteca Boxing Club, implementing prodding shots and feints to his repertoire. Said looks have subsequently allowed Davis to land sneaky left hooks that feed nicely into his kicking game, as we’ve seen the 36-year-old score more knockouts in the later portions of his career. Still, Davis’ propensity to stick around on the feet longer than he has to could be problematic against a fast and dangerous counter fighter like [autotag]Yoel Romero[/autotag]. One of the most intimidating characters in any division, Romero not only carries the physique of a superhero, but he can move like one too. From the springboard-like aerial assaults he uses to misdirect his opponent’s attention to the immediate explosions he hits once touching down on the mat, Romero is one of the most deceptive distance closers in the game. Using changes in tempo to lull his opposition into a false state of security, Romero can quickly change gears at the drop of a dime, which is probably why most of his opponents are a bit more gun-shy when facing him. The 44-year-old outlier consistently layers his craft, often getting in on a takedown only to abandon ship at the last second. Typically, this will shake up the defensive radar of a Romero foe, making the takedown a real threat and focus. And as soon as he can get his opponent to drop their level in anticipation for a shot, the former Olympian will then fake low to explode high, unleashing hell in the form of flying knees. Although Romero’s athleticism and agility allow him to conduct himself like a video-game character, he has seemingly taken the time to sharpen his boxing fundamentals in more recent years – something that he tends to show off more from his orthodox stance. Whether Romero’s hitting inside parries to shift forward off of his rear hand or sitting back and looking to counter with check-hooks and crosses of his own, the perrenial title threat has made undeniable strides in this range. Even though Davis will have to be careful to not get sucked into the Cuban’s game, Romero will also have to be not too committed to rolling and returning with punches considering how it’s cost him both head kicks and unfavorable scorecards in the past.

Point of interest: Freestyle vs. folkstyle

Phil Davis vs. Liam McGeary

With wrestling accolades being a common point of contention when discussing matchups like these, I thought it would be apropos to use this section to break down some of the differences between freestyle and folkstyle wrestling and how it applies to the fighters at hand. Although you may hear descriptors like "world-class" being lauded toward freestyle wrestlers like Romero for his accolades on the Olympic level, there are many who would argue that the folkstyle wrestling used at the collegiate level in the United States translates better to mixed martial arts due to its longstanding emphasis on control. This, of course, both encourages and cultivates a different brand of positional players and scramblers alike, as this style of riding and controlling can interplay well with the mat wrestling and jiu-jitsu metagames that are common in MMA. Thankfully for Davis, his folkstyle sensibilities quickly translated to the grappling portion of the fight game. An All-American wrestler from Penn State who won an NCAA title in 2008, Davis showed the creativity and technical wherewithal to capitalize on his positional dominance. One of my top 5 mat wrestlers in MMA for the work he did early in his career, Davis seamlessly uses ride positions to flow into further methods of control. Whether Davis is hitting cradles to counter scrambles or collapsing posts by sucking in wrists, the 13-year pro is no stranger to snatching up submissions but is perfectly content with playing it safe positionally, as well. https://twitter.com/DanTomMMA/status/1382035284385099776?s=20 Even though I could go on about my frustrations with Davis and his divergence from his fantastic wrestling skills, he has proven that he can still competently hit shots both in the open and against the fence when he wants to. Davis seems to do his best work when chaining off of a single due to the path it allows him to a bodylock – a position which Davis celebrates in the form of relentless mat returns. Considering that freestyle wrestlers, at least on paper, are more likely to expose their backs in MMA due to the nature of their exposure rules (as folkstyle is given more wiggle room in this regard), then perhaps Davis can replicate some of the problems he provided for other international wrestlers like Glover Teixeira. That said, Romero does a solid job of prioritizing the denial of head position by utilizing hard frames to combat standing entries. And when opponents are able to get in on his hips, the Cuban representative is usually quick to either break grips or rip kimura counters. The part that has many scratching their heads, however, is the fact that Romero – both early on in his career and early in his fights – has a propensity to give takedowns that he perhaps shouldn't. For my money, I'd say that this is due to his hardwiring from competing for decades in freestyle wrestling. Unlike folkstyle wrestling (which discourages and deducts points for stalling), the reward system and ruleset of freestyle arguably encourages stalling and opportunistic scoring. This, of course, could help explain the questionable lulls and late rallies that are riddled throughout Romero's resume. But regardless of any perceived stylistic superiorities, I suspect that both men will be nearly impossible to meaningfully score on unless hurt first. For that reason, I suspect that both stylistic trends and overall aging will keep wrestling exchanges between these two short and sweet.

Point of interest: odds and opinions

Yoel Romero

The oddsmakers initially opened the Cuban fighter as the favorite, but public money has flipped the betting lines, listing Davis -120 and Romero +100 as of this writing. Although I came into this fight leaning toward the more active man in Davis, I found myself being swayed the other way after re-watching tape on both parties. Sure, Romero isn't exactly a bastion for consistency and volume, as strikers who can stay long have seemingly been the Cuban's kryptonite. But I'm not sure Davis fits that bill. Davis may have the length and range weapons on paper, but I don't think he works the body or legs meaningfully enough to get ahead on the scorecards. Add in the fact that Bellator non-title main events are only three-round affairs, and I find it hard to ignore the reality that Romero only has to steal just two rounds to walk away with a decision. Basically, unless Romero becomes the first person to stop Davis, then this has all the makings for a maddening split decision on paper. And in a matchup between two fighters who can't help but fight nip and tuck, I'll take the more damaging and dazzling party to more successfully play to judge's sensibilities and criteria.

Prediction: Romero by decision

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