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Bellator 263 breakdown: Can dual champ Patricio Freire hold off A.J. McKee?

Bellator 263 breakdown: Can dual champ Patricio Freire hold off A.J. McKee?

MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the Bellator’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for Bellator 263.

Bellator 263 takes place Saturday at The Forum in Inglewood, Calif. The main card airs on Showtime following prelims on MMA Junkie.

Patricio Freire (32-4 MMA, 20-4 BMMA)

Patricio Freire

Staple info:

  • Height: 5'6" Age: 34 Weight: 145 lbs. Reach: 65.5"

  • Last fight: Submission win over Emmanuel Sanchez (April 2, 2021)

  • Camp: Pitbull Brothers MMA (Brazil)

  • Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing

  • Risk management: Good

Supplemental info: + Bellator featherweight and lightweight champion + Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt + 11 KO victories + 12 submission wins + 12 first-round finishes + KO power + Explosive athlete ^ Deceptive distance closer + Accurate hooks and crosses ^ Coming forward or off the counter + Hard leg kicks + Underrated wrestling ability + Good transitional grappler + Dangerous guillotine choke +/- 6-2 against Bellator-level southpaws

A.J. McKee (25-0 MMA, 6-0 BMMA)

A.J. McKee

Staple info:

  • Height: 5'10" Age: 26 Weight: 145 lbs. Reach: 73.5"

  • Last fight: Submission win over Darrion Caldwell (Nov. 19, 2020)

  • Camp: The Body Shop (California)

  • Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing

  • Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info: + Wrestling base + 6 KO victories + 6 submission wins + 6 first-round finishes + KO power + Aggressive pace and pressure + Excellent improvisation + Dynamic striking ability ^ Everything from spin kicks to counters + Strong inside the clinch + Good wrestling ability ^ Defensively and offensively + Solid transitional grappler + Slick submission skills ^ From top or bottom

Point of interest: Kicks and counters

A.J. McKee vs. Darrion Caldwell

The main event for Bellator 263 features a featherweight title fight between two fighters who are very familiar with kicks and their associated counters. Initially hitting the Bellator scene as a heavy-handed brawler with a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, [autotag]Patricio Freire[/autotag] has steadily sharpened his striking skills during his formative fighting years with the promotion. He quickly demonstrated the ability to work forward off of feints and pressure, as well as be able to sit back and counter when needed. In recent times, we have seen Freire and other fighters from his camp embrace more of a karate-centric form of kickboxing. Staying lighter on his toes while maintaining a longer stance, the 34-year-old champion can either enter space quickly to intercept his opposition (as seen in his lightweight title fight with Michael Chandler) or exit to safety when appropriate. Freire also keeps a solid feel for letting go on left hooks, which is a shot that could serve him well against a southpaw in the grand scheme of things. Nevertheless, Freire will still need to respect both the kicks and potential counters that will be coming his way this Saturday. Enter [autotag]A.J. McKee[/autotag]. Primarily operating out of a southpaw stance, McKee makes plenty of hay with his left hand – both coming forward and off the counter. In recent outings, McKee’s right hands have had more of a presence, showing an ability to hit sneaky lead-hand uppercuts and check hooks when the situation calls for it. And when McKee is feeling in stride, the 26-year-old will attach kicks or knees to his combinations, seemingly improvising around how his opponent is reacting. Although McKee's length and speed should certainly assist him here, the challenger will still need to mind his habit of throwing kicks nakedly (without proper setup), as that could open him up for some undesirable counters. But regardless of who gets the jump on the other in exchanges, expect tie-ups and takedown attempts to shortly follow.

Point of interest: Winning the wrestling

Patricio Freire vs. Emmanuel Sanchez

Considering each fighter's propensity to put a stamp on both rounds and exchanges with grappling threats, I will be curious to see who initiates – as well as who wins – the wrestling battles. Thankfully for McKee, he, like his father, also comes from a wrestling base. Whether McKee is chaining attacks along the fence or hitting reactive shots in open space, the Bellator bred product will have plenty of looks to offer the sitting champion. That said, when McKee is the one being grounded, he has shown a comfortability in operating from his back once finding himself there in fights. In McKee's defense, he generally does a solid job of staying active and urgent with strikes and submissions, as well as shows some savvy when it comes to vining out his opponent's legs to deny them striking leverage of their own. McKee also offers some solid first-layer defense on the feet that usually helps him avoid these scenarios. Not only does McKee carry decent footwork to go along with his shot awareness, but the Team Body Shop product also keeps a wicked front-headlock game in his back pocket, as he seems to have some solid setups for both guillotine and anaconda chokes. However, given that Freire favors similar submission weapons, I will be curious to see if the sitting champ can successfully navigate the wrestling waters. Training for years under the tutelage of acclaimed wrestler Eric Albarracin (wrestling coach to the likes of Henry Cejudo and Paulo Costa), Freire has been able to improve his wrestling ability by applying high-level techniques to his already impressive athleticism and jiu-jitsu prowess. https://twitter.com/DanTomMMA/status/1377335086715035650?s=20 Whether he’s balancing on one leg while shutting down takedowns or changing his level to dump an opponent, the 15-year pro has been increasingly difficult to control over the most recent stretch of his career. Freire also has gotten tighter and more conservative with his grappling game overall, playing more of a positional savvy style when the occasions call for it. Nevertheless, Freire still carries a deadly guillotine choke for overzealous opponents who are looking to grapple, as he seldom seems to sacrifice position when threatening with it. Regardless if it's McKee's transition game or Freire's positional savvy that's in the driver's seat, the top priority for both fighters on the floor will be protecting their necks at all times.

Point of interest: odds and opinions

patricio pitbull bellator 221
patricio pitbull bellator 221

May 11, 2019; Rosemont, IL, USA; Patricio Freire (blue gloves) celebrates with his championship belts after defeating Michael Chandler (red gloves) during Bellator 221 at Allstate Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

The oddsmakers and public are showing the challenger some serious respect, listing Freire -120 and McKee +100 as of this writing. Despite McKee generally being a sizeable favorite in his fights, he is undoubtedly taking his biggest step up to face top-shelf talent in Freire. And with the table set for a potential crossroads fight at the top of the promotion, it's hard not to see why the betting lines have tightened between these two. But promotional woo-woo aside, McKee is a true homegrown talent that offers tangible, stylistic threats for the sitting champion. Whether we're talking speed and length or his ability to both kick and wrestle, McKee makes for an intriguing stylistic challenge on paper. McKee has also been quietly consistent about attacking the body both with kicks and punches, as I suspect that will also serve him well against the guard and gas tank of the more experienced Freire. That said, I still suspect that Freire may have the stylistic upper hand if this fight gets out of the early rounds. McKee may be an undefeated prospect who impresses me greatly, but I still went back to look at some of his tougher contests that went the distance and found a common thread: fighters who could either counter and/or wrestle provided him with the most problems. And considering that Freire does some of his best grappling and striking off of the counter, then McKee could be in for some rough weather if he hasn't worked on his setups and feints (which could help him both score points and follow through for potential finishes). Freire has excellent eyes in exchanges, as he's good about staying patient and either waiting for his moment to counter or beating his opponent to the punch. Couple that with the amount of weight McKee cuts and his inexperience in championship rounds, and I suspect that Freire ends up controlling the pace through measured counter fighting, frustrating the young challenger via another vet lesson.

Prediction: Freire by decision

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