Beaver’s Best Bets for the Drydene 200

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·4 min read
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The Xfinity series has had as much parity as the Cup series.

In the first nine races this year, there have been seven different winners. Without a lot of Prop Bets for top-three and -10 finishes, that has made it challenging to create a winning strategy – especially on weeks (like this one) when the favorites have low odds.

Justin Allgaier is one of the repeat winners this year. He was also one of last year’s Dover Xfinity victors in the Saturday race of the doubleheader. He beat Austin Cindric to the line by a little less than two seconds. Chase Briscoe beat Ross Chastain to the line in the second race that weekend.

No one has been perfect in regard to either top-fives or -10s this season, but three drivers have lifted themselves above the competition. Cindric’s six top-fives gives him the points lead over Daniel Hemric with seven top-10s. AJ Allmendinger’s five top-fives makes him an incredibly interesting pick as well, but he does not have any other top-10s to his credit.

Proposed Winner

This week’s favorites at PointsBet Sportsbook are the two drivers with multiple wins in 2021. Both Allgaier and are listed at +360, but Cindric gets the nod for the Drydene 200 because of his 2020 record on this track. While Allgaier won the Saturday affair, Cindric finished second to him in that event and was third on Sunday. He should very well remember what the perfect setup feels like and is capable of informing his team how to get him back there.

Cindric opened the 2021 season with a win at Daytona. He swept the top five in his next three starts before winning his second race at Phoenix Raceway. His last four attempts have not been quite as impressive with the exception of drawing the second pill on the Talladega Superspeedway lottery. Last week, he finished 29th on the rough-surfaced track of Darlington, but that was because of a last-lap incident.

Best Bets for a top five

We are going to rank Ty Gibbs (+650) second this week. With 13/2 odds, he shows a much better Return on Investment than either Cindric or Allgaier. Better still, in a head-to-head matchup, he shows greater prospects than the JR Motorsports pilot. Gibbs has only made four starts in the No. 54 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota this year, but he already has one win and three top-fives.

Allgaier can’t be ignored, however. His win last week on the rough-surfaced Darlington Raceway is a huge part of this week’s handicap. Allgaier has a lot more experience on this track than the competition and it came at a high level when he raced full time in the Cup series in 2014/2015. He didn’t set the track on fire in a lightly-funded entry for Harry Scott, but those laps honed his skill. Last year’s Dover win was one of three that season. His other two came on the short track of Richmond Raceway.

Allmendinger (+725) also has a lot of experience at Dover – and like Allgaier, he is accustomed to the quicker, more competitive Cup series. His odds should be lower than they are, but a big part of the reason he is above 7/1 is because 2021’s results have been erratic. Allmendinger finished outside the top 10 four times in nine races this year, but the remainder of his effort was in the top-five including a win at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

Noah Gragson (+725) will have a little extra spring in his step this week after winning his appeal from Darlington. That almost never happens. It not only restored the No. 9 team to their fourth-place position, but it was the fifth time in the last six races that Gragson finished sixth or better. The extra $100k that went along with the Dash for Cash wasn’t bad either. Gragson challenged for the win right up until the checkered flag.

Daniel Hemric (+900) also deserves serious attention this week. His top-five average in 2021 is .556 and anytime a driver is above .500, he is going to be confident and ready to race. Hemric finished fifth last week at Darlington and was third at Martinsville to give him two top-fives in his last three starts.

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