Bears vs. Cardinals preview: Who has the advantage in Week 13

The Chicago Bears (4-7) will host the Arizona Cardinals (9-2) on Sunday, where Chicago is looking to build on their Thanksgiving win in Week 12. But with a loaded Cardinals team coming to town, it’s going to be difficult.

When it comes to determining who wins football games, there are a number of factors that contribute to a victory. Solid quarterback play, winning the line of scrimmage, protecting the football and taking it away, controlling important situations and overcoming or taking advantage of an injury situation.

In our weekly preview series, Alyssa Barbieri from Bears Wire and Jess Root from Cards Wire went deep into the matchup to determine who has the advantage at the five key factors for winning football games in the NFL.

Quarterback play

AP Photo/Duane Burleson

Bears Wire: With Justin Fields sidelined with cracked ribs, Andy Dalton will make his second straight start for the Bears. Matt Nagy opened the passing game up with Dalton last week, where he threw for 300-plus yards, the first time in a year that happened for a Chicago quarterback, in a Thanksgiving victory over the winless Lions. Dalton’s quick release will be valuable against this dominant Cardinals pass rush. But, overall, the game plan won’t change much, as it hasn’t since the beginning of the season. The Bears will look to establish the run and then attempt to open up things downfield, where a talented Cardinals secondary awaits. Dalton, while he threw a end-zone interception last week, typically doesn’t make mistakes, and the Bears are going to need that from him against Arizona.

Cards Wire: It looks like Kyler Murray returns, which is fantastic for the Cardinals. His play has been nothing short of MVP-caliber this season. He leads the NFL in completion percentage at 72.7% but also leads the NFL at 8.9 YPA, which is quite the accomplishment. He is making plays with throws at all levels.

Advantage: Cardinals

Line of scrimmage

AP Photo/Duane Burleson

Bears Wire: The Bears have the second most sacks in the NFL with 32. Outside linebacker Robert Quinn is coming off a dominant November, where he had 5.5 sacks in three games – and that was without Khalil Mack and Akiem Hicks. Chicago needs Quinn and the pass rush to step up in this game, but it won’t be easy against a good Cardinals offensive line. The Bears have struggled against the run, which is where they’re going to need guys like nose tackle Eddie Goldman and defensive tackle Bilal Nichols to step up in Hicks’ absence and facing a top-10 Cardinals run gamr. Chicago’s offensive line has been decent this season, but with Fields sidelined, they’re going to need to step up in pass protection with Dalton under center. The strength of the line this season has been in run blocking, and they’re going to need a strong outing to establish the run early with David Montgomery.

Cards Wire: The offensive line has been solid. They are 10th in rushing yards per game and are tied for the second-most rushing touchdowns with 17. They “only” average 4.0 yards per attempt but have been solid. They have allowed 26 sacks this season but the passing game is still clicking. Defensively, they are stout on the edge with Chandler Jones and Markus Golden but are vulnerable to the run, as statistically they are middle-of-the-road. They have, though, allowed only seven rushing touchdowns, the second-fewest in the league. They are third-to-last in yards per attempt allowed, but that usually doesn’t matter because teams have to try and pass the ball against them most of the time.

Advantage: Cardinals

Turnovers

AP Photo/Jeffrey Phelps

Bears Wire: Protecting the football on offense and taking the football away on defense have been points of emphasis for the Bears this season, and it’s something that’s been a struggle this season. The Bears have a -4 turnover differential through 12 weeks, where they have 11 takeaways and have turned the ball over 15 times. Trevis Gipson recovered a fumble in a Thanksgiving win against the Lions while Andy Dalton threw an interception in the end zone. As the Bears prepare to face the Cardinals, this is a game where Chicago can’t afford to make any mistakes to make things even worse against one of the best teams in the NFL.

Cards Wire: They are +8 in turnovers this season. They have forced 19 takeaways, ll of which have been fumbles. They have forced 11 turned over fumbles.

Advantage: Cardinals

Situational

AP Photo/Duane Burleson

Bears Wire: The Bears defense has been decent in the red zone this season, whether it’s holding teams to a field goal or forcing a turnover on downs. They’re allowing teams to score a touchdown on 56.41% of trips inside the red zone, which ranks 13th in the NFL. It shouldn’t come as a surprise that one of the league’s worst offenses has struggled to convert red zone opportunities into touchdowns, as Chicago has scored a touchdown on 50% of trips inside the red zone, which ranks 28th. Third down conversions remain a struggle for the Bears offense, where they’ve converted just 33.59% of third downs, which ranks 30th in the NFL. Meanwhile, Chicago’s defense has done a decent job getting teams off the field on third down, allowing teams to convert on third down 40.29% of the time, which ranks 16th.

Cards Wire: Offensively, the Cardinals are seventh on third-down efficiency at 43.6%. They are tied for first on fourth-down efficiency on offense. They are third in third-down defense and second in fourth-down defense, even though no team has had more fourth downs attempted against them.Arizona is third in red-zone efficiency, scoring touchdowns over 70% of the time. They are 14th in red zone defense.

Advantage: Cardinals

Injuries

AP Photo/Kamil Krzaczynski

Bears Wire: Chicago has been ravaged by injuries over the last month, and they’ll be without several key contributors heading into this game. Quarterback Justin Fields is out as he continues to nurse cracked ribs, and it’s probably for the best considering they’re facing this Arizona pass rush. The Bears will be down two of their top three wide receivers as Allen Robinson and Marquise Goodwin won’t play. Chicago is also down some contributors on the defensive line as Akiem Hicks and Mario Edwards won’t play. Meanwhile, linebacker Roquan Smith is a game-time decision with a hamstring injury suffered in a Thanksgiving win against the Lions. Still, not a good injury situation for the Bears as the Cardinals come to town.

Cards Wire: Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins are game-time decisions, but reports are that they are expected to play. Left guard Justin Pugh probably will be out as well. But they are missing J.J. Watt and Chase Edmonds, who are on IR. They are close to full health after the bye.

Advantage: Cardinals

Verdict: Advantage Cardinals

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The next two weeks are going to be brutal for the Bears as they face the two best teams in the NFC in the Cardinals and Packers. Unfortunately for Chicago, Arizona is getting back Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins. This Cardinals team is great from top to bottom, and this is a game that could get ugly by halftime, not unlike the Bucs game earlier this season. The Bears needed a last-second field goal to beat the winless Lions. There going to need a lot more than that to stand a chance in this game.

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