Frank Schwab recaps the weekend full of bad beats before giving you the best plays for the massive Monday Night Football tilt featuring the Buffalo Bills and the Tennessee Titans. New BetMGM customers who bet $1 on ANY game will receive $100 in free bets added to their account. You don’t need to win your bet to receive the promotion. Must be 21+ in AZ, CO, IN, IA, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY only. . Terms apply. Go to BetMGM.com/YAHOOSPECIAL to get started or use promo code SPORTSBOOK when making your first deposit.
FRANK SCHWAB: Welcome to "Yahoo Sportsbook Daily." It is October 18, 2021. And I am your Monday Night Football betting guide, Frank Schwab. But first as always, we've got to get some bad beats out of the way. And oh, there was some awful ones this weekend, and it started really on Thursday night.
If you had pretty much any bet on Thursday night, you were subject to some bad beat in the last few minutes. Let's go back to the tape. Tampa Bay at Philadelphia. Tampa Bay's really in control of that game the whole time. Philadelphia rallies, and they score late. And it looked like they were going to kick an extra point to cut Tampa Bay's lead to 7.
That's just fine for Buccaneers bettors who have minus 7. But Philadelphia did the analytical thing. They. Went for 2 right there. It makes sense strategy-wise, but it's terrible for bettors. Philadelphia gets the 2-point conversion. Now they're down, 28-22.
You're holding that Buccaneers minus 7 ticket. You're not feeling very good, but you are feeling OK about the over if you have that. It was 53 and 1/2, and now you have a chance at that with the total sitting at 50.
All Tom Brady needs to do-- drive down the field, score once more. You're gonna cash the over. You're gonna cash the Buccaneers ticket. And then what happens? The Buccaneers did drive.
They had a taunting penalty that gets them going. There deep in Philadelphia range, and then Tampa Bay gets a first down inside the 20-yard line but doesn't score. And now after the two-minute warning, they could just kill the clock.
Under hits. Philadelphia hits. Some bad beats for those who had Tampa Bay, who had the over. And there was a lot of you. Those were the majority of the bets at BetMGM. So a few bad beats to get things off on the wrong foot in NFL week 6.
Then we get the Saturday. Let's start with Georgia, the best team in college football, and a lot of people probably bet them as 21 and 1/2 point favorites against Kentucky. And it was looking really good in the fourth quarter. They're up 30 to 7. It doesn't seem like Kentucky's really gonna get anything going. And even if they do, Georgia should have time to answer.
But Kentucky goes on a long marathon drive. And with four seconds left in the game, Kentucky scores. They lose 30 to 13, which means those Georgia betters, minus 21 and 1/2, just are ripping up a ticket. You don't win anything there. Georgia wins. That's great, but they did not cover. Bad beat if you had Georgia. You really look like you were going to win that one.
And you really look like you were gonna win in the Florida first half under. The under in that one's 31 and 1/2, and you're feeling good. It's 21-6 with just a few seconds left. What could really happen?
Florida drills one deep-- a Hail Mary into the end zone-- and LSU just doesn't cover it. The guy's wide open in the end zone. He makes a Hail Mary catch. That pushes a total over.
Defenders are arguing with each other, and bettors are probably arguing with each other either because they can't believe that this under 31 and 1/2 failed to cash on a ridiculous Hail Mary that should have been defended at the end of the half. So those are some bad beats from Saturday, but you're gonna try to get it back on Sunday, right?
You go in. You like the New England Patriots plus 3 and 1/2. And boy, are you feeling good about that one. Some ebbs and flows in this game. But at the end of it, you go to overtime. And once the Patriots win the coin toss, you got it.
The Patriots are either gonna score a touchdown and the win the game. They're gonna kick a field goal, and then the Cowboys can't cover 3 and 1/2 because all they can do is win by 3 at that point. So you're feeling pretty good.
The Cowboys would need to get a stop, then drive, and score a touchdown instead of settling for a field goal, and that's exactly what happens in the game. The Cowboys get a stop. Mac Jones throws incomplete on third down. Cowboys get the ball, and their driving. And you're still thinking, all right, they're probably going to set a for a Greg Zuerlein field goal until CeeDee Lamb is just wide open for a 35-yard touchdown.
He showboats a little bit, gets into the end zone. Cowboys win by 6. And if you had that Patriots plus 3 and 1/2 ticket, what a brutal ending. You deserved a better fate on that one. You lose by 6. Your plus 3 and 1/2 is ripped up on a really, really bad way to end those afternoon games. Tough beat there for all Patriots bettors.
Well, let's hope for better things on Monday Night Football, and we do have a very interesting match-up here. Buffalo Bills come in. They're the hottest team of football next to the Arizona Cardinals. They're 5 and 1/2 point favorites at an over-matched Tennessee Titans team. This is an easy bet on the Bills, right? I don't think so.
I worry about the emotional letdown here for the Bills. The Bills game of the year was last Sunday night. They played the Kansas City Chiefs, who beat them in the AFC Championship game this season before. So this is a game they had circled all offseason.
They want to go into Arrowhead, beat the Chiefs, and they certainly did that, winning by 18 points. They looked great on offense and defense. But I think there's gonna to be some letdown even on Monday Night Football going into Tennessee. So I'm gonna be on the home underdog here.
I think it is a good spot for Tennessee. They're still a little bit beat up, and they haven't played well all year. But you know that crowd's gonna be fired up. They're a capable team. And I just think Buffalo's gonna come out a little bit flat after winning their game of the year last year.
I have a couple of prop bets for you too here. I really like Zack Moss over 42 and 1/2 rushing yards. If you've seen this Buffalo team lately, it's been a lot of Josh Allen passing the ball. But when they do run it, it's almost entirely Zack Moss.
They really are starting to trust him as a runner. He's been getting chunks of yards, and this Titans defense is not very good. So I think Zach Moss, as long as he gets in the 10 to 12 carry range, I think he goes over 42 and 1/2 rushing yards.
And on the other side, we usually talk about Derrick Henry's rushing yards. And that's in the 90s as it always is. But I looked at his receiving yards. It's only 13 and 1/2 at BetMGM, and I think Derrick Henry can go over that.
They're incorporating him more in the pass game as they go on, which they should. You want to get that guy in space. And all he needs is one screen pass, and he can pick up 15 yards and hit that over 13 and 1/2. I think Derrick Henry-- maybe not last year or the year before I wouldn't have been betting his over receiving yards. But the Titans want to pass him the ball a little bit more, so I think 13 and 1/2 receiving yards more than doable for Derrick Henry in what should be a really, really fun Monday night game.
So to recap, we have the Titans plus 5 and 1/2 hoping for that letdown for the Bills. I have over Zack Moss 42 and 1/2 rushing yards. Over Derrick Henry 13 and 1/2 receiving yards. Just one big catch, Derrick. That's all we need from you. It should be, again, a great Monday night game.
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