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Auburn has an 80% chance to beat Mississippi State on Saturday

Out of all the top-four seeds of this season’s SEC Tournament, No. 4-seed Auburn is the last team standing.

The Tigers defeated South Carolina, 86-55, on Friday to advance to the SEC Tournament semifinals at Nashville’s Bridgestone Arena. No. 1 Tennessee, No. 2 Kentucky, and No. 3 Alabama suffered different fates as their trips to Nashville were cut short by a Friday loss.

Next up for Auburn is a date with No. 9 Mississippi State, who took down the top-seeded Volunteers, 73-56 behind an 18-point outing by Josh Hubbard and Cameron Matthews. The Bulldogs also limited Tennessee to 31% shooting from the field.

Will Auburn suffer a similar fate as Tennessee? ESPN does not count on it. According to ESPN’s matchup predictor, the Tigers have a 79.9% chance to beat Mississippi State on Saturday to advance to the SEC Tournament finals against either No. 6-seed Florida or No. 7-seed Texas A&M.

Auburn and Mississippi State split the season series. The Bulldogs won its home tilt with the Tigers on Jan. 27, 64-58. Auburn got revenge on Mississippi State on March 2, 78-63.

Both teams are solid defensively, as both teams rank in the top-20 defensively in the latest KenPom update. It will all come down to which offense has the most success. The Tigers score 83.6 points per game while Mississippi State scores 75.0. KenPom also suggests that Auburn is better offensively, as they rank No. 10 heading into Saturday’s action, while Mississippi State enters at No. 60 in offensive efficiency.

Saturday’s semifinal contest between Auburn and Mississippi State is set to begin at noon CT.

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Story originally appeared on Auburn Wire