NCAAF Auburn has a 32.7% chance to beat Texas A&M on Saturday
The series between Auburn and Texas A&M has been dominated by the road team, but analytics does not take that into consideration when predicting a game.
ESPN’s matchup predictor does not favor Auburn in Saturday’s game at Kyle Field, as they have given Texas A&M a 67.3% chance to knock off the Tigers on Saturday morning.
Auburn enters the game with a 3-0 record but has not defeated an opponent worthy enough for ESPN to increase their line. Texas A&M is 2-1, with their lone loss being to Miami. They redeemed themselves last week by beating ULM, 47-3.
Since the Aggies entered the SEC in 2012, Auburn has won four of five games played at Kyle Field in College Station. Can history repeat itself on Saturday?
Here’s how ESPN predicts the rest of the SEC slate to shake out in week four.
Kentucky at Vanderbilt
Kickoff: 11 a.m. CT (SEC Network)
ESPN prediction: Kentucky (78.6%)
Kentucky has played three relatively easy opponents to open the season and should have zero trouble leaving Nashville with a win on Saturday. The Commodores started strong by winning their first two games, but they have dropped the last two to Wake Forest and UNLV. It should be a great tune-up for Kentucky ahead of next week’s game with Florida.
Ole Miss at Alabama
Kickoff: 2:30 p.m. CT (CBS)
ESPN prediction: Alabama (65.8%)
The Crimson Tide earned a scary win last Saturday at USF and has more questions surrounding their team than in previous years. Alabama has elected to turn the keys back over to Jalen Milroe at the quarterback position, which should help build camaraderie among the Alabama offense. Will that be enough to overshadow the talented, high-octane Ole Miss offense featuring Jaxson Dart and Quinshon Judkins?
For more Alabama-Ole Miss coverage, visit Roll Tide Wire.
UTSA at Tennessee
Kickoff: 3 p.m. CT (SEC Network)
ESPN prediction: Tennessee (86.3%)
The Swamp continues to be a haunting place for the Tennessee Volunteers, as they dropped their 10th straight game to the Florida Gators at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville. This week, they will take on a challenging UTSA team that lost by three to Houston, and knocked off a hot team in Texas State. Tennessee hosts South Carolina next week, so they will use this week to fix mistakes from the Florida game.
For more Tennessee-UTSA coverage, visit Vols Wire.
Arkansas at LSU
Kickoff: 6 p.m. CT (ESPN)
ESPN prediction: LSU (88.3%)
The Golden Boot rivalry has been one-sided, as LSU has won seven of their last eight meetings with Arkansas. The Tigers are in control of the SEC West at the moment and will continue to prove why on Saturday. Expect Jayden Daniels to have another great day through the air.
Visit LSU Tigers Wire and Razorbacks Wire for coverage of Arkansas-LSU.
Charlotte at Florida
Kickoff: 6 p.m. CT (SEC Network+)
ESPN prediction: Florida (95.3%)
Florida’s season-opening loss to Utah was disappointing and led many Gators fans to believe that another season of mediocrity was on the horizon. However, the Gators redeemed themselves by knocking off No. 11 Tennessee by two touchdowns last Saturday. Florida has several winnable games coming up, which should give them confidence heading into the meat of the SEC schedule.
For more Florida-Charlotte coverage, visit Gators Wire.
UAB at Georgia
Kickoff: 6:30 p.m. CT (ESPN2)
ESPN prediction: Georgia (98.6%)
A night game in the SEC is special, just ask UAB head coach and Super Bowl champion quarterback Trent Dilfer, who says that “an SEC football game at night has a way better atmosphere than a Super Bowl.” Is that a sign of respect? Or a sign of intimidation? Either way, Georgia should handle the Blazers before taking their talents to the Plains next weekend.
For more Georgia-UAB coverage, visit UGA Wire.
Missouri vs. Memphis (St. Louis, Missouri)
Kickoff: 6:30 p.m. CT (ESPNU)
ESPN prediction: Missouri (57.2%)
Kicker Harrison Mevis became a cult legend in the Show Me State last Saturday as his last-second, 61-yard field goal lifted the Tigers to a 30-27 win over longtime rival Kansas State. This week, Missouri faces Memphis in a battle of unbeatens. Does Mizzou still have magic in the tank?
Mississippi State at South Carolina
Kickoff: 6:30 p.m. CT (SEC Network)
ESPN prediction: South Carolina (59.7%)
The nightcap of the weekend features another toss-up game. South Carolina put a scare into Georgia last weekend by taking a 14-3 lead into the locker room at halftime. The Bulldogs would eventually storm back to win, 24-14, but South Carolina’s performance was enough to earn them respect. However, Mississippi State was not as lucky, as they dropped a 41-14 decision to LSU. Both teams appear to be equal, but the Gamecocks have proven their worth more than Mississippi State.
