Texas Tech (-2) vs. Arkansas
The South Region gets the most anticipated matchup of the evening between No. 3 Arkansas and No. 6 Texas Tech at 6:20 PM ET.
Since 2011, the No. 3 seed has dominated the No. 6 seed. The series is 12-2 with seven straight wins in favor of the higher seed. Nine of the 14 games were decided by double-digits, with six decided by one possession. Two of the last three have been blowouts of 16 and 20.
No. 3 LSU 69, No. 6 Maryland 67
No. 3 Texas Tech 78, No. 6 Buffalo 58
No. 3 Purdue 87, No. 6 Villanova 61
No. 3 Texas Tech 69, No. 6 Florida 66
No. 3 Michigan 64, No. 6 Houston 63
No. 3 UCLA 79, No. 6 Cincinnati 67
No. 3 Notre Dame 67, No. 6 Butler 64 (OT)
No. 6 Baylor 85, No. 3 Creighton 55
No. 3 Iowa State 85, No. 6 North Carolina 83
No. 3 Michigan State 70, No. 6 Memphis 48
No. 3 Marquette 74, No. 6 Butler 72
No. 6 Cincinnati 62, No. 3 Florida State 56
No. 3 Marquette 62, No. 6 Murray State 53
No. 3 UConn 69, No. 6 Cincinnati 58
The Razorbacks are 19-9 ATS (67.8%) this season and Red Raiders 11-17 ATS (39.2%). On the road, Arkansas is 6-3 ATS (66.6%) and Texas Tech is 3-6 ATS (33.3%).
Arkansas is undefeated at 19-0 SU (100%) when it holds an opponent to 76 points or fewer. Texas Tech averages 73.8 points per game in its losses and 72.8 points per game on the season. In the previous five games, the Red Raiders are averaging 70.8 per outing.
The Razorbacks are 4-6 SU (40%) when opponents score more than 76 points. In all six of Arkansas' losses, the opponent has scored 78 or more. Those teams included Missouri, Oklahoma State, Tennessee, Alabama and LSU twice.
Texas Tech has scored 73 or more points in two of the last 14 games. This Red Raiders offense will not keep you up at night and on the season, Arkansas has clearly dominated in regards to averages.
Over the last five games, it is more of the same with Arkansas winning plenty of critical areas, including wide gaps in rebounding, free-throw shooting and points per game. Texas Tech ranks 258th in the nation regarding defensive rebounding percentage (30.2%). Mainly from a lack of height. Texas Tech does not have a player taller than 6-foot-7.
Because of that, Texas Tech will have a tough time inside with Arkansas. The Razorbacks limit opponents under the NCAA average of 50.8% from the field. The Red Raiders score 52.7% of points there. Arkansas is also the 10th-tallest team entering the field, which can cause issues for Texas Tech.
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One of NBC Sports Edge's top trends for this matchup is Arkansas ATS. The Razorbacks are 23-11 ATS (67.6%) in the last 34 games. Texas Tech is 3-12 ATS (20.0%) in the last 15 games when the spread is between -3.5 and 0.5 points.
Based on the history of the No. 3 and No. 6 seeds, the trends headed into this matchup and Texas Tech's lack of scoring, I am backing Arkansas with the points in this spot. If the game becomes a pick-em or +1 - I would still side with the Razorbacks.
Game Pick: Arkansas +2 (1u) - play down to +1 or ML