Arkansas has 83 percent chance to beat Missouri on Friday

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If the numbers hold, in six days, Arkansas will have finished its most successful regular season in a decade.

Coach Sam Pittman’s team plays Missouri on Friday, the day after Thanksgiving, hoping to snap a five-game skid to the Tigers in the Battle Line Rivalry. Per ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Razorbacks have an 83% chance of doing so.

Arkansas went up two spots in the FPI even after falling at Alabama on Saturday. The No. 30 Razorbacks are considered, via the algorithm, miles better than the Tigers, who are 75th. Only Vanderbilt at 120th is rated lower than Missouri among SEC teams.

Arkansas has the 25th most efficient offense and 39th most efficient defense in FBS, per ESPN’s charting. Missouri’s offense hangs at 41st, but the Tigers defense is an abysmal 113th.

If the Razorbacks were to win Friday, Arkansas would have its first eight-win regular season since 2011 and would have its first win over Missouri since 2015.