Arkansas has 73 percent chance to beat Vanderbilt

·1 min read

Not often are many second conference games of the year are considered must-win. Arkansas’ against Vanderbilt on Tuesday night is about as close as they get.

The Razorbacks (10-3, 0-1) have lost three of their last four games and fallen from No. 4 seed in ESPN’s Bracketology to ‘Next Four Out’ in the same. A loss to Vanderbilt, at home no less, could damage the Razorbacks chances beyond repair. Barring a few major upsets late in the season, anyway.

The good news for Arkansas is the data. ESPN’s Basketball Power Index gives the Hogs a 73.3% chance at victory when the teams tip Tuesday night. That same algorithm has Arkansas as the No. 47 team in the nation with the Commodores at No. 70.

KenPom.com’s rankings are similar. The basketball prognosticator has the Razorbacks as his No. 46 team and Vandy at No. 71.

It’s unclear whether ESPN’s BPI wining percentage calculates for the potential loss of guard JD Notae and forward Kamani Johnson. Arkansas coach Eric Musselman said Notae, the second leading scorer in the SEC is a game-time decision after being ill over break and Johnson is on a day-to-day status after being suspended ahead of the team’s SEC opener against Mississippi State.