Appreciating Baker Mayfield’s floor, recognizing limited alternatives

The Cleveland Browns have searched for a franchise quarterback since Bernie Kosar. While Vinnie Testaverde, Tim Couch, Kelly Holcomb, Jeff Garcia and a whole host of draft picks have brought glimmers of hope, none have forged their name alongside the legends to wear the orange and brown.

When the Browns drafted Baker Mayfield, it was clear that he had intentions of joining that pantheon of Cleveland immortals and changing the fortunes of the franchise. His rookie season showed a lot of promise with the rookie touchdown record and some exciting victories. Year two was a mess with Freddie Kitchens’ mismanagement of the team making it difficult to analyze Mayfield’s future.

The hiring of Kevin Stefanski and Andrew Berry brought a whole new offense, one that had Mayfield under center for the first time ever, and a whole new set of hopes and dreams. The 2020 season fulfilled many of those hopes and dreams with the team making the playoffs and getting a road playoff victory. Mayfield put together a spectacular second half of the season and Super Bowl aspirations were born.

The 2021 season has been far from perfect for both the team and their quarterback. Cleveland has lost two close games that they, mostly, controlled throughout while Mayfield has had a couple of difficult games and wasn’t able to pull out either of those two losses against quality opponents.

In Week 1 against the Kansas City Chiefs, the Browns passing game got rolling with 321 yards through the air. Mayfield’s late-game interception, while having his foot grabbed, was his lone turnover. A Jamie Gillan muffed snap could have changed the outcome of the game and the narrative around Mayfield.

In Week 5 against the Los Angeles Chargers, Cleveland’s quarterback didn’t turn the ball over, had two passing touchdowns and threw for 305 yards. A bad pass interference call and a lack of calls going the team’s way may have decided the outcome of the game and the narrative surrounding Mayfield five games into the season.

At this point, it is clear that Baker Mayfield is a good quarterback. That is his floor. Compare him to Kirk Cousins, Jimmy Garoppolo, Derek Carr or any other quality signal-caller in the league and you will find enough similarities.

At his floor, Mayfield has produced like the best young quarterback since Kosar (Testaverde was not a young quarterback, 30-32, in Cleveland).

Unfortunately for Mayfield, the Browns and fans of the team, he has not produced like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson, contemporaries of his, or Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson, older veteran stars.

Whether Mayfield can ever get to the level of those six is complete conjecture. At this moment, he has not yet produced as they have over an extended period of time (read: at least two years).

Can Cleveland win a Super Bowl with this level of Mayfield at quarterback? Yes, they can. Would it be difficult? Given the six quarterbacks listed above still being in the league, very much so.

The problem for the Browns is that the alternatives are more likely to resemble their recent history of a quarterback graveyard than matching the elite of the elite in the NFL.

With a quality roster and good quarterback, the Browns are unlikely to be in a position to draft a top-flight quarterback in the near future. Bottoming out just to acquire one would just restart the process undertaken by Sashi Brown a few years ago.

Trading up in the draft, as San Fransisco did in 2021, could be feasible but finding a quarterback that can step into the elite category in their first two seasons (2022 and 2023) could be hard to find. For example, “generational” prospect Trevor Lawrence has struggled in his rookie season. It is more likely that a rookie or second-year quarterback is carried by a great team than to produce better than Mayfield is currently.

Finally, trading for an elite veteran is a possibility but one that comes with caveats. First, how much talent and draft picks must be surrendered to acquire the talent? Second, how much cap space will be needed to pay that quarterback immediately? Third, how long will it take for that quarterback to get comfortable in Stefanski’s system? Fourth, how old is that quarterback and how many years do they have left at a high level? Fifth, and most importantly, why is an elite-level quarterback available?

The more talent and draft picks given up to acquire a quarterback makes that quarterback’s job even harder and shortens the team’s window. While Mayfield has his fifth-year option on the cap next year, players like Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson (the two most likely names to be bandied about) could cost double that amount. While Stefanski’s system isn’t overly complicated, Watson and Wilson have played in a lot of shotgun systems and would take a little time to adjust. Wilson is closing in on 33 years of age which could also shorten a team’s Super Bowl window.

Finally, why would an elite quarterback be available? Wilson may demand a trade, again, from Seattle as his only NFL team ever struggles to build around him. Would he accept a trade to Cleveland? How big of a contract would it take to get him to do so? How much would Seattle command to help restart their franchise? Watson’s legal issues, while still allegations, are troubling. Unless he is fully and totally cleared of the allegations, a team like the Browns may not be interested. Like Wilson, would he accept a trade to Cleveland? How much would Houston demand in return and could Watson negotiate an even bigger contract to accept the deal?

What we have seen from Baker Mayfield over the last year and five games is a good to very good quarterback. That is his floor level. That is good enough to win a Super Bowl but could be difficult with the elite passers found around the league. We do not know what his ceiling is, everyone is entitled to their own opinion and evaluation.

We do know, from the team’s history since the return, that finding a quarterback that is better than Mayfield’s floor is very difficult to do. There are ways to try to do so but none are certain and all could be costly.

Baker Mayfield may not be elite but he may be Cleveland’s best hope for a Super Bowl victory this season and beyond.