What do the analytics say about LSU and Alabama?
LSU is set to face Alabama in Tiger Stadium on Saturday night. It’s a battle of two top-15 teams that will likely decide the SEC West.
LSU came up just short in Tuscaloosa last year in a game where the defense showed up, but the offense struggled to hold up its end of the bargain. The last trip the Tide took to Baton Rouge came in 2020. An Alabama team that would go on to win the national title hung 55 on LSU.
This is Brian Kelly’s first taste of the rivalry, but he’s faced off against Nick Saban before, most recently in the playoff against that same Alabama team that scored 55 on LSU.
Here’s how the two squads compare with each other on an analytical level.
EPA
[Doug Engle/Gainesville Sun]
Below is where LSU sits in opponent adjusted EPA/play. LSU’s in good spot, sharing a tier with some solid teams, but Alabama’s defense has put the Tide in a tier above the Tigers.
📊Opponent Adjusted EPA/play – Wk 9
▫️Four great teams in CFB
▫️Tennessee could be #5 w/ a better defense
▫️Clemson isn't CFP caliber, but Louisville might be their only remaining hurdle
▫️Nebraska's defense slowly climbing back (it's still bad)
▫️Ok St. is no longer my problem pic.twitter.com/l9sMz85jL5— Joshua "Bud" Davis, PhD (@JBudDavis) October 31, 2022
According to CFBGraphs, LSU’s offense ranks 13th EPA/play, while Alabama ranks 25th. It’s worth mentioning that Alabama’s offense has had backup QB Jalen Milroe take a significant amount of snaps this year with Bryce Young banged up.
CFB Graphs has Alabama’s defense 15th in EPA/play and well above an LSU team that sits 46th in EPA/play.
Success Rate
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For success rate, we’ll be using the numbers from CollegeFootballData. LSU’s offense ranks 10th in the country in success rate. That puts them above the Crimson Tide, who are down at 30th.
LSU’s rushing offense ranks fourth in success rate, a stat where Alabama doesn’t even rank in the top 50. However, similar to EPA, Alabama has the advantage on defense, ranking 17th and 23 spots ahead of LSU at 40th.
Both LSU and Alabama have defenses that rank in the top 25 in passing success rate.
Available Yards
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Available yards is the percentage of yards available an offense gains on each drive.
Alabama’s offense ranks 13th in available yards while its defense ranks seventh. That gives the Tide the fifth-best net available yards number in the country. Because LSU’s defense has struggled at times, the Tigers rank just 35th in net available yards with an offense that ranks 22nd and a defense that ranks 80th.
What do ranking systems have to say?
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Bill Connelly’s SP+ has LSU at 16th, just one spot off where the Tigers sit in the AP poll.
SP+ has Alabama ranked third in the country with a top-five offense and defense. According to Connelly’s rankings, Alabama is about 14-points better than LSU on a neutral field.
Alabama ranks second in ESPN’s FPI while LSU sits at ninth. Despite each squad having a top 10 ranking, FPI still has Alabama at 12.4 points better and gives the Tide a 76.4% of victory.
