The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on XL Fleet Corp. (NYSE:XL), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its full-year results last week. It was a pretty negative result overall, with revenues of US$20m missing analyst predictions by 5.0%. Worse, the business reported a statutory loss of US$0.30 per share, much larger than the analysts had forecast prior to the result. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for XL Fleet

After the latest results, the twin analysts covering XL Fleet are now predicting revenues of US$52.8m in 2021. If met, this would reflect a substantial 160% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 22% to US$0.23. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$68.2m and losses of US$0.22 per share in 2021. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, withthe analysts making a serious cut to their revenue outlook while also expecting losses per share to increase.

The consensus price target fell 45% to US$16.50, with the analysts clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The period to the end of 2021 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 160% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 182% annual growth over the past year. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 14% per year. So although XL Fleet is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at XL Fleet. They also downgraded their revenue estimates, although industry data suggests that XL Fleet's revenues are expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of XL Fleet's future valuation.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have analyst estimates for XL Fleet going out as far as 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with XL Fleet .

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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