The Asia-sized hole in Biden's trade agenda

President Joe Biden is trying to lead on Asia without any firm plan to go to Asia this year.

The president's dearth of travel to an economically and militarily important continent could hurt his administration's efforts to present a strategic message for trade and alliances, leaving a vacuum that could be exploited by China. And five months into Biden’s presidency, the new administration’s plans for engaging the fast-growing region remains a mystery.

“As every Asian hand knows, 80 percent of success in Asia is showing up,” said Matt Goodman, a former Obama White House official now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Because we are a Pacific power, but not an Asian country, we have to demonstrate through our physical presence that we are committed to the region.”

After his closely followed European trip this month, those in both the business and the foreign policy sectors are concerned that Biden isn't capitalizing on that momentum as he tries to pull in allies to confront China on its trade and economic practices and other areas of concern such as human rights.

“The key thing, frankly, is they need a very clear Asian economic strategy and plan, including with respect to China, and that seems to be something that they are in no hurry to generate,” said Charles Freeman, senior vice president for Asia at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

Because of the pandemic, the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Leaders' Meeting in November and two other regional summits are all expected to be virtual this year, eliminating a built-in opportunity for Biden to meet face-to-face with more than a dozen Asian leaders over the course of a few days.

The pandemic has made planning any ambitious journey for world leaders difficult, experts acknowledge. But even if any potential itinerary is limited, a visit would go a long way toward accomplishing foreign policy goals.

"He’s got to get out there," Alex Feldman, president and CEO of the U.S.-ASEAN Business Council, agreed. "This is the most consequential region of the world for the United States across the board."

Biden will undoubtedly participate in the virtual APEC, East Asian and U.S.-Association of Southeast Asian Nations summits slated for November, but that’s not the same as actually traveling there and being in the same room with other leaders.

“There is no substitute, as those of you who have covered me for a while know, for a face-to-face dialogue between leaders. None,” Biden himself noted, after his recent meeting in Geneva with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

But if he waits for the next cycle of summits, Biden won’t visit the region until late 2022.

What's the plan, Joe?: Southeast Asian nations are particularly eager to learn Biden’s plans for economic engagement in the region. They have been whipsawed in recent years by former President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership after the United States spent more than five years negotiating the regional trade pact.

Beside visiting Japan and South Korea this year, Biden should stop in at least one Southeast Asian country, Wendy Cutler, a former senior U.S. trade official who now is vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute, said in an email.

“SE Asian countries are feeling more like an afterthought right now in the Biden team’s Asia policy,” Cutler said.

White House aides argue that Biden has hardly ignored the region, pointing out that the first two leaders that he hosted at the White House were Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga and South Korean President Moon Jae-in.

He also convened a virtual meeting with leaders of the Quad group of countries — India, Australia and Japan — within two months of taking office to discuss the group’s goal for a “free and open Indo-Pacific.” Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin made an early joint trip to Japan and South Korea.

A bevy of other officials, including White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan, Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman and Biden's Indo-Pacific coordinator Kurt Campbell engage regularly with their counterparts in the region, a White House spokesperson said. Sherman recently made three stops in Southeast Asia, including at the ASEAN Secretariat.

Biden also is expected to attend the G-20 leaders meeting in late October in Rome, where he will have the chance for the first time as president to meet face-to-face with Chinese President Xi Jinping, India Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Indonesian President Joko Widodo.

A failure to communicate: Still, Biden has not spoken yet with any of 10 leaders of the ASEAN countries, which include Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. The regional group has a total population of 650 million people and a combined gross domestic product of $2.8 trillion.

In one unfortunate episode, Blinken was unable to take part in a virtual meeting with the region’s foreign ministers in late May when he had to make an emergency trip to the Middle East and his plane’s onboard video equipment failed to make the required connection. State Department officials are now working to reschedule that call.

Biden also moved career diplomat Sung Kim from his post as ambassador to Indonesia to become special envoy to North Korea, increasing the number of vacant U.S. ambassador posts in the ASEAN region to seven, including at the U.S. mission to ASEAN.

Most of the U.S. business community and many members of Congress believe Trump made a colossal mistake when he pulled out of the TPP, even though his action was popular with labor groups and many others on the left.

In the short term, Biden is unlikely to make any move to rejoin the TPP, which has been renamed the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership by the 11 remaining members, because of concerns about potentially losing Democratic control of both the House and the Senate in the 2022 elections.

Reflecting that caution, U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai has been pursuing a “worker-centric” trade agenda, focused much more on enforcing old trade agreements than negotiating any new pacts

Other countries not waiting: While the U.S. takes a time out from new trade agreements, other countries are moving ahead. Last year, China and 14 other countries in the region completed negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, a less ambitious alternative to the CPTPP.

Canada also recently announced plans to begin trade talks with Indonesia, which is by far the biggest economy in ASEAN, while the United Kingdom formally kicked off negotiations on Tuesday to join the CPTPP.

More disturbing to many members of Congress is China's reported interest in joining the TPP.

"That should set off alarm bells for all of us," Sen. Tom Carper (D-Del.) said at a hearing on Tuesday on how the Biden administration could engage economically in the region. "Regardless of the merits or demerits of the TPP, the fact was that the agreement allowed the United States to have a seat at the table and actively help write the rules for trade in this dynamic region of the world."

"We need to take China’s interest seriously and begin the hard work of developing a comprehensive policy toward re-engagement with our allies in this part of the world. Simply put, we find ourselves at a crossroads, with an excellent opportunity to re-engage in the region in a way that benefits U.S. interests and re-asserts U.S. leadership in the region," Carper added.

One option for the Biden administration would be to build on the Digital Economy Partnership Agreement negotiated by Singapore, Chile and New Zealand, or to craft new nonbinding disciplines for digital trade in the APEC regions, whose 21 members include China as well Japan, South Korea and six ASEAN countries, Goodman said.

That “would be a huge step forward,” Feldman said, acknowledging the political difficulty that Biden faces in pursuing a much more ambitious trade initiative in the region in the next 18 months.

“You’ve got to be realistic about the trade agenda, and what can be accomplished before the midterms. But you’ve got to, at a minimum, articulate an agenda," Feldman said.