What ten Alabama vs Georgia College Football Playoff National Championship predictions and prop bets appear to be the best bets and picks?
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So you’re bored of the idea of Alabama vs Georgia for the College Football Playoff National Championship after just seeing this a few weeks ago … fine.
Let’s make this interesting with a few wise investments.
Here are the ten best-looking prop bets, predictions, and big picks for the College Football Playoff National Championship.
Value means as much or more here as anything else. That’s why a slew of the player props that don’t give you anything extra aren’t on here. Also, this depends on where you’re looking and who you invest with.
Happy College Football Playoff National Championship. Let these confirm, deny, or help you in some way go with your already held beliefs.
Let’s start with the biggest contradiction pick of the bunch …
10. Alabama +2.5
The payoff on this isn’t anything amazing, but if you believe in Alabama, you might as well take the free cup of coffee and get the added sweetener in it.
Now is as good a time as any to go into my belief for this season’s College Football Playoff and the National Championship.
Not patting myself on the back for the first part – I’m usually miserable at picking CFP semifinal games against the spread – but my initial calls were 1) Alabama and Georgia would roll in their respective semifinal games, 2) Georgia’s defense would be the 2021 regular season version in the two game tournament, and 3) Georgia would exorcise the demons and win it all.
Oh yeah, and 4) I’m a firm believer that you never go against Alabama, so picking Georgia hurts. That’s why Alabama +2.5 and getting +120 for it is more than fine.
Because I’ll never, ever, ever argue with anyone picking Alabama to win the national title …
9. Alabama -7.5 and total under 40.5
I’m picking Georgia, but yeah, Alabama could roll in this – because it’s Alabama.
It’s entirely possible that Nick Saban’s team takes its game up another notch AND Georgia’s defense is strong in a 24ish-16ish Tide win.
Seriously, would you be out-of-your-mind shocked if this was a defensive clinic like the 21-0 2012 BCS Championship win over LSU? Yeah, that’s probably not going to happen, but at +1500 you’re not crazy to take the shot.
So with that said …
8. Alabama -3.5 and total under 55.5
Maybe I’m misreading this.
Maybe this will be a bit of a back-and-forth fight and not a defensive slugfest.
This is the one pick of the ten on this list that gives a nod to those who think the offenses are going to roll, because it’s the most practical value.
Alabama winning by 4 or more is hardly asking for the world, and maybe this is like the 41-24 SEC Championship again.
At +550, cool.
7. Alabama RB Brian Robinson scores 1st TD
I’ll just say it. Player prop bets are stupid.
Yeah, they’re fun, and every once in a while they’ll hit, but over the long haul they’re not worth the trouble.
But this is a prop bet piece. It’s not like we’re doing up the practical thing here.
Brian Robinson ran for over 200 yards against Cincinnati, but he didn’t score. He ran for 55 yards in the SEC Championship against Georgia, but he didn’t score.
In fact, he hasn’t rushed for a touchdown since putting two on New Mexico State back in the middle of November – that’s four straight games without a touchdown.
And that’s why you’re getting the +600.
If you’re going to do a player prop bet, do a player prop bet big.
6. Georgia on the money line and both teams score 20+ (or, if you like Alabama, go the other way)
LINE: +190 for Georgia, +260 for Alabama
It’s about as conservative as the convoluted prop bets get when it comes to value.
This goes back to the call that Georgia wins, it’s a bit of a defensive fight, but it still ends up around 26ish-23ish. Georgia on the money line doesn’t get you anything, but if this ends up on the right side of a good battle with a few scores each, +190 is a nice way to get this done.
On the flip side, if you like Alabama, the +260 is an even better call for the value.
Now, on the slightly contradictory side of this is best national championship prop bet No. 5
NEXT: Alabama vs Georgia: Top 5 CFP National Championship Predictions, Best Prop Bets
5. Georgia money line and under 49.5
I’ll soon get to another version of this that’s a safer call with almost relative value, but at +260 this is relatively safe if you like Georgia.
Alabama might have held back, but at the end of the day it was a 27-6 Cotton Bowl win over Cincinnati.
The win over Auburn was a low-scoring 24-22 fight, the LSU 20-14 win was a struggle, and Georgia’s defense is more than capable of this being a relatively low scoring game.
So if this really is played in the 20s for each side – like I think it might be – a 26ish-20ish Georgia win gets you +260.
But it all depends on how bullish you want to be on the point total – if you like Georgia to win. Again, there’s another more conservative call coming up.
NEXT: College Football Playoff National Championship Prop Bets: Alabama first touchdown scored
4. Alabama first touchdown scored
You’ve got a 50/50 shot on this.
Again – to hammer this point home extra hard – I’m picking Georgia, but that doesn’t mean I’m against Alabama in any way. That’s not being wishy-washy; that’s living in an Alabama world of college football.
But even if Georgia does win this, it’s not going out on a limb to suggest that Alabama will score the first touchdowns.
Georgia is -145 to score first – that’s no fun.
Alabama is +100. That’s more fun, and also very likely and easy value pick.
And if you really want to fire that ball in between the safeties and go with a specific call …
NEXT: College Football Playoff National Championship Prop Bets: Georgia money line and under 55.5
3. Georgia money line and under 55.5
This all depends on where you’re looking and what you can get it.
The No. 5 bet on this list wasn’t bad if you like Georgia – a money line win and the under on the 49.5 total works – and the +260 is a strong value. +240 isn’t a whole lot worse, and you’re getting six extra points on the total.
Of course, if this is a repeat of the SEC Championship in style – and obviously with an Alabama win – this is all kaput, but if you like Georgia this might be one of the safest value investments on the board.
As dominant as Georgia has been this season, nine of its games were under 55.5 points. Of course, it only played Alabama once – that was way over at 65 points – but don’t blow off the potential that the Dawg D comes up with something special and keeps the Tide in relative check.
As amazing as the Tide O might be, it scored 27 or fewer in three of its last six games. All you need is a relatively low-scoring Georgia win.
NEXT: College Football Playoff National Championship: Georgia winning between 1-6
2. Georgia winning between 1-6 (or the other way if you like Alabama)
LINE: +325 for Georgia, +375 for Alabama
Player prop bets are stupid, but they’re stupid-fun. You do that just to take a flier, and you know what you’re getting into.
Nothing can make you look sillier, though, than getting a prop bet like this wrong.
It’s always wild to go for the value – like Georgia at +700 if it wins by 13-18, or Alabama +1000 if it wins by 13-18 – and it’s super-fun if you’re a super-fan of one side to throw down some coin on a blowout, but picking a close win is a bit more safe and sane.
This is as much wishful thinking than anything else – because I desperately want a good College Football Playoff National Championship – but I really do think this will be close.
I’m expecting field goals and wouldn’t be shocked if this was decided on a walk-off kick either way.
My call is Georgia, and at +325 that’s a nice value. Alabama at +375 is terrific, too, if you’re a believer in the Tide.
And now it’s time to hedge things just a wee bit while staying within the belief system with the most rational call of the bunch …
NEXT: Alabama +6.5 and under 50.5
1. Alabama +6.5 and under 50.5
For the gajillionth time, I like Georgia in this.
You might like Georgia in this. The betting public might end up liking Georgia in this. But even those who believe with every fiber of their being that the Dawgs are finishing the drill have to acknowledge that, yeah, it’s Alabama.
Would anyone be shocked if this was 31-13 Tide? Of course not.
Would anyone be shocked if this was a 20-16 defensive fight? Of course not.
So here’s the way to balance everything out a little bit. Make a call one way or another on how much of an offensive show this will be. I’m going with the belief that both defenses are going to be phenomenal.
If you think this is going to be a relatively low scoring game, then getting 6.5 with Alabama might be a gift.
Georgia can win this, cover the 2.5, and Alabama can keep this within 6.5 all with both teams playing in the low 20s.
Or Alabama could win this outright and the D could pitch a gem.
So while I’m not-so-secretly hoping for a wild 45-42 classic, if it really is low scoring, that turns out to work out well.