Alabama’s chances of winning-out drop following ESPN FPI update

·2 min read

After a 42-21 blowout victory over the Ole Miss Rebels on Saturday, I hate to be the guy to crash the party and bring about bad news.

ESPN updated their college Football Power Index (FPI) on Sunday, and the Crimson Tide’s chances of winning-out through the SEC Championship game have shrunken significantly.

ESPN’s FPI is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily.

There isn’t one game on the schedule that projects the Crimson Tide’s chances of winning to be below 82%, however, Alabama’s chances of winning-out sit at a paltry 22%.

According to ESPN’s models, it’s the SEC Championship Game that could be up for grabs. Alabama has a 43% chance of winning the conference. So, who has better chances?

That would be the Georgia Bulldogs, sitting at a 54.1% chance at winning the conference, and a 29% chance of winning-out.

This comes after UGA’s shutout win over then-No.8 and undefeated Arkansas Razorbacks.

Crimson Tide fans may be asking regarding their squad, how do your chances lower after a blowout win over the top-ranked offense, and No. 12 team in the country? I can’t answer that, but I share your sentiment.

Truth is, Georgia looks good. Their defense is scary, their offense is making waves when compared to earlier in the season and their schemes have been masterful. Kirby Smart and his talented cohort of assistants are coming through for the Dawgs on a consistent basis.

Should both teams make the SEC Championship Game, it could prove to be a heavyweight back-and-forth contest between No.1 and No. 2 in the meaningful CFP rankings.

Stay tuned to Roll Tide Wire for continued top-notch coverage of Crimson Tide athletics!

Alabama will take on Texas A&M on Saturday at 6:00 p.m. CT on ESPN.

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