AFC playoff picture: Ravens’ postseason in jeopardy after Week 12

The Baltimore Ravens have lost the last three games, falling to 6-5 on the 2020 season. Though the losses were somewhat expected well before each kicked off, time is quickly running out for Baltimore to secure a playoff spot and those losses loom large on the schedule.

As it stands right now, the Ravens wouldn’t be in the postseason if the playoffs were to start today. Sitting at No. 9 in the playoff hunt with just seven seeds available, Baltimore needs to not only start winning games but hope for some of their peers to start losing in a hurry.

Let’s take a look at each team currently in the AFC playoff picture and where the Ravens stand in comparison.

No. 1 seed - Pittsburgh Steelers (11-0)

AP Photo/Don Wright

The Steelers remain the league's only undefeated team, though they were certainly pushed to the limit by a very thin Ravens team Wednesday. Though Pittsburgh has had one of the softest schedules this season, racking up wins over very easy competition, they are winning the games they should be winning. But with week after week in which they allow bad teams to keep games close, it seems like a matter of time before they slip up.

No. 2 seed - Kansas City Chiefs (10-1)

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Kansas City got quite an interesting test in Week 12, playing against Tom Brady and Tampa Bay to a close finish. Though they were up by 17 points early in the fourth quarter, they were able to finish strong enough to hold on to a three-point victory. There's no denying the Chiefs' offense is awesome but there were doubts about the defense. It might not have been the prettiest showing but they got the job done against the most loaded offense in the league, which points to Kansas City once again being among the best teams in the NFL.

No. 3 seed - Tennessee Titans (8-3)

The strategy for Tennessee has been apparent this season: Run Derrick Henry hard and ask quarterback Ryan Tannehill to be efficient without major mistakes. It's a winning strategy considering the Titans blew the Colts out of the water in Week 12, having a 24-point lead entering the fourth quarter and beating them by 19 points in total. Much like last season, anyone that underestimates Tennessee, how tough they are, and how difficult it is to stop Henry is in for a rude surprise. The bigger question is if that Titans defense can improve enough by the playoffs to be a more consistent threat.

No. 4 seed - Buffalo Bills (8-3)

AP/ Photo Jeffrey T. Barnes

Buffalo might just be on of the most well-rounded teams in the NFL this season. That proved true once again in Week 12 over the Los Angeles Chargers. The team got great results on the ground, rushing for 172 yards and a touchdown on 30 carries for a 5.7 yards-per-carry average. Quarterback Josh Allen was far from perfect but was good enough to get the job done, completing 75% of his passes for 157 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. The defense was effective enough to limit the Chargers on the ground and keep rookie quarterback Justin Herbert from taking over the game on his 52 pass attempts. Buffalo is right where they want to be as the playoffs get closer. They're at the top of their division, though just by a hair over the Dolphins. They're playing solid football and look capable of beating anyone if they play an outstanding game. That's the recipe for postseason magic.

No. 5 seed - Cleveland Browns (8-3)

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Like the rest of the AFC North, Cleveland has had a little help by way of a softer schedule. For the third consecutive week, the Browns played a team well below .500 and just barely squeaked by them. In Week 12, that meant beating the 1-10 Jacksonville Jaguars by just two points. On a three-game winning streak, Cleveland still needs to finish the season strong to guarantee themselves a playoff spot. With games against the Titans and Ravens in the next two weeks, we'll see if the Browns are truly a playoff team or if they've been racking up wins against bad teams to get this far.

No. 6 seed - Miami Dolphins (7-4)

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You have to hand it to the Dolphins. They've changed quarterback twice and are still very much in the early stages of rebuilding their roster. Yet, they're currently in the playoff seeding and have a clear road forward. Even if they don't end up making the cut, they've proven themselves as an up-and-coming team worthy of discussing at this level. Coming off a decent win over the Jets and playing the Bengals this week, Miami looks to be heading toward double-digit wins. They've beaten tough teams like the Rams, Chargers, 49ers, and Cardinals. But they still have games against the Chiefs, Patriots, Raiders, and Bills to close out their season, which might just be where they falter and open up room for a team like the Ravens to sneak into the postseason.

No. 7 Seed - Indianapolis Colts (7-4)

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If the Bills are one of the most consistent teams this season, the Colts are the opposite. They've lost to teams like the Jaguars, Browns, and Ravens while beating teams like the Titans and Packers. Seemingly, every week depends on which version of quarterback Philip Rivers shows up. If he plays well, Indianapolis usually wins the game. But in the five games where Rivers has had below an 89 passer rating (out of 158.3), the Colts have lost four times. Most recently, it came against the Titans, who ran all over Indianapolis and held Rivers to a 57.1% completion rate, two touchdowns, and one interception for an 84.9 passer rating. The Colts are one game behind Tennessee for the top spot in the AFC South. Having split the series 1-1, they have a shot to win the division still, which could throw a pretty big wrench into Baltimore's playoff hopes. But two games against the Texans, a game against the Raiders, and another against the Steelers is a tough remaining schedule and could see them fall out of contention entirely.

In the hunt:

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You're here because you want to know about Baltimore's chances. Admittedly, they aren't exactly great as it stands right now but there's a clear path forward for the Ravens to get in. They're a game out of the seeding right now and realistically need to win a minimum of four of the five remaining games to have a good shot to get into the playoffs. However, if we look closer at the schedule, it's Week 14 against the Browns that is the most vital game remaining. A win over Cleveland is likely going to be needed regardless of what the Ravens do beyond that game. Barring a complete collapse from the Browns the rest of the way, they seem set up to finish around 10-6 or 11-5 with the Week 14 matchup key in deciding who will make the cut. There are still a million scenarios still possible but Baltimore can all but guarantee themselves a spot in the dance if they win out. Anything less than that is when in-depth math is needed to figure out extreme tiebreaker scenarios.