AdventHealth 400 DFS Gems

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Momma said there'd be days like this. When Kyle Larson spun and possibly tweaked his engine, he became the first man out and earned negative points for the fourth time this season. To take him last week at $11,000 you probably had to make some compromises. If you made the right ones, that may have saved your lineup.

Kyle Busch and Alex Bowman also drained points from your lineup, while Martin Truex Jr., Ross Chastain, and Ryan Blaney barely moved the needle in a positive direction. We're fond of saying that racing is a zero-sum game, however, and that meant quite a few drivers below the $8,333 cost-per-player average earned 40 or more points. It's why most players are tempted to set multiple rosters to take advantage of those elusive dark horses.

Typically, we would say the AdventHealth 400 at Kansas Speedway will be more predictable, but the NextGen car continues to force players to scratch their heads. This is a track historically prone to streaks. In the past 18 races, three drivers have a .500 or better average for top-fives and nine hit that mark for top-10s. Most of these come in clumps and it's rare to see one top-10 hanging out there alone. Make most of your decision this week based on a driver's record at Kansas.

Group A: Most Expensive (>=$10,000)

Chase Elliott ($10,900)
The DraftKings cap managers cut you a little break this week and priced only four drivers above the $10k mark. Elliott has commanded a top-five salary cap in every race this season and at the start of the year, that was making him a poor value. Since the Ruoff Mortgage 500k at Phoenix Raceway, he has been one of the top three earners in six of nine races – including the three most recent. Last fall, he earned the third-most (72.2) points in the second Kansas race, so he should anchor a lot of rosters.

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,400)
By the process of elimination, Truex gets the second recommendation at this level. Larson is simply too expensive to be attractive considering the number of times he's lost points recently and Hamlin is – well, Hamlin, and we have no earthly idea why is priced above $10k given his recent performances. Truex hasn't exactly been predictable in recent weeks, but he has earned top-10 points in the last two unrestricted, similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks at Las Vegas Motor Speedway (55.6) this spring and Kansas (43.3) last fall.

Group B: (Between $9,900 and $8,000)

William Byron ($9,900)
Byron has typically been rightly-priced in the game. He has the best cumulative cost-per-thousand of 35.27, (about 5.87 per week, per thousand) and was the top producer in this regard in the most recent Kansas race with a whopping 8.04. This week, he's driving with a chip on his shoulder after getting wrecked while leading at Darlington Raceway with a lap and a half to go. If that wasn't enough incentive, he is carrying a five-race, top-10 streak at Kansas.

Ross Chastain ($9,700)
Chastain banked the most DraftKings points in three of the last seven weeks and top-five points in seven of 10. He entered Darlington as the top earner in back-to-back races at Talladega Superspeedway (64.6) and Dover Motor Speedway (83.6) and might have kept that streak alive without his spin. Since so many drivers experienced problems on the Track Too Tough to Tame, it's unlikely that mistake will stall his momentum.

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Group C: (Between $7,900 and $6,500)

Erik Jones ($7,700)
Every driver at this level has earned top-10 points at least once in the last 45 days. Jones did so three times at Martinsville Speedway (41.5), Talladega (54.3), and Dover (49.5). It's easy for drivers to fall through the cracks at this price point level, and they are inherently inconsistent, but Jones has shown strength more often than his rivals in the last six races.

Daniel Suarez ($7,500)
Three drivers at this level earned top-10 points twice in the past 45 days, but Suarez gets the nod over Brad Keselowski and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. because his best effort at the Bristol Motor Speedway dirt track was fifth-most. He struggled at Las Vegas and lost points, but on another unrestricted, intermediate speedway the previous week, he was the seventh-most productive driver with 51. A rising tide elevates all ships and Trackhouse Racing is on a steady incline.

Group D: (Less than or equal to $6,500)

Justin Haley ($5,900)
Haley is coming off his most productive points performance of the season and will carry that momentum with him to Kansas. While he has earned among the top 10 only twice in 12 races, he has come close on four other occasions, giving him a .500 average of top-15 earnings. One of his strong runs came on the similarly-configured Las Vegas Motor Speedway when he banked 37.9.

Ty Dillon ($5,100)
Dillon does not get nearly enough respect and that dismissive attitude by the cap manager often makes him a solid choice for a bargain basement pick. Adding him to the roster increases the cost-per-player for the remaining five by about $650 and there are several spots on the chart where that opens five or six options you would not have otherwise had. Price is not the only reason to start him, however; he has outperformed his salary cap in all but two races this year and both of those were in pack-racing lotteries.

The top-10 points’ earners from the Hollywood Casino 400 were: 1. Kyle Larson (93.7), 2. William Byron (76.4), 3. Chase Elliott (72.15), 4. Kurt Busch (57.2), 5. Kevin Harvick (52.15), 6. Alex Bowman (46.9), 7. Christopher Bell (45.65), 8. Martin Truex Jr. (43.3), 9. Parker Kligerman (43), 10. Bubba Wallace (42.45)

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