AdventHealth 400 Cheat Sheet

  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.
·9 min read
In this article:
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.

Editor’s Note: Don't just bet your favorite sports. LIVE YOUR BET LIFE! Get started today at PointsBet with two risk-free bets up to $2,000. Bet now!

Last week's favorite for the Goodyear 400 at Darlington Raceway, Kyle Larson spun on Lap 56 and may have damaged his engine in the process. Regardless of the reason, it gave up the ghost exactly 56 later and the cheat sheet accuracy began at -35. Ninth-ranked Kyle Busch was collected in an accident started by a blown tire from 18th-ranked Brad Keselowski and the trend was not encouraging.

Ross Chastain (finishing 30th), Martin Truex Jr. (24th), and Alex Bowman (29th) were some other top-10 ranked drivers who failed to finish the Goodyear 400. Erik Jones (25th), Kurt Busch (28th), and Cole Custer (26th) were ranked in the top 15.

The problem with a race showing 36 percent attrition when most of the 13 cars that retired were strong enough to finish on the lead lap, is that it raises the "also rans", who were not running fast enough to get into trouble, by 13 spots. That's great for JJ Yeley, Landon Cassill, and Cody Ware fans, but it played havoc with our accuracy, making this our worst performance of the year

Now we, like the drivers, must shake off the poor result and hope that it blows away like "Dust in the Wind."

1. Kyle Larson
We really don't know what to do with Larson. Wins at Texas and Kansas last fall and a second-place finish at Vegas this spring are hard to ignore, but 2022 has been star-crossed. (Confidence: 5)

2. Chase Elliott
If you want to count the new iteration of Atlanta Motor Speedway as a similarly-configured, 1.5-mile track, Elliott is riding an eight-race streak of top-10s with three second-place results, including last fall at Kansas. (90)

3. Kyle Busch
Busch has top-10s in 12 of his last 13 unrestricted starts on the 1.5-milers. Two of those were wins and nine were top-fives. (11)

4. William Byron
Byron would easily have earned a top-five last week if he had not been wrecked by Joey Logano in the closing laps. He's been consistent on unrestricted, similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks, but Kansas has been a bit of a wild card. (52)

5. Martin Truex, Jr.
In his last 16 races on unrestricted ,1.5-mile tracks, Truex has 13 top-10s that are offset by three results of 25th or worse. We're betting on the low number to carry the day. (22)

6. Ross Chastain
Chastain had one of the best cars at Darlington last week until he hit a bump at a precarious point on the track and spun into the inside retaining wall. (8)

7. Kevin Harvick
Not counting Atlanta with its new configuration, Harvick has been 12th or better in his last 10 races on this track type, but only four of those were top-fives. (44)

8. Christopher Bell
Bell turned a corner on the 1.5-mile tracks on the old version of Atlanta last year and scored four top-10s on this track type in the next five weeks. (25)

9. Denny Hamlin
In nine races on this track type last year, Hamlin earned one win and had four top-fives. He was also just outside the top 10 on three occasions, which makes him hard to handicap. (3)

10. Austin Dillon
In his last 12 races on unrestricted 1.5-mile tracks, Dillon has finished between sixth and 14th. He's a great dark horse to finish in the top 10 this week and with a pair of top-fives in his last five races, he could be an even better value. (15)

11. Ryan Blaney
We would like to be more enthusiastic about Blaney's prospects this week, but a 37th-place finish in the fall 2021 Hollywood Casino 400 and a 36th at Vegas this spring have us worried. (71)

12. Alex Bowman
Bowman didn't back into the Las Vegas Motor Speedway win, but his strength there was not exactly predictable since he had three top-fives and three results outside the top 20 on this course type last year. (55)

13. Tyler Reddick
We're still waiting for Reddick to get his first Cup win - and if pressed, we would lay a little money on that bet. His second-place finish in the Goodyear 400 was his fourth top-five in the last nine weeks. (38)

14. Chris Buescher
Take away his problems at Auto Club Speedway and Talladega Superspeedway, and Buescher has a worst finish of 18th on NASCAR's ovals. Watch him in practice and start him if he fits a niche on your fantasy roster. (49)

15. Joey Logano
At Darlington, Logano proved why he is considered one of the most aggressive drivers in the field, but that type of 'crash-and-run' won't work on a similarly-configured, 1.5-mile track. (57)

16. Kurt Busch
Since 2013, Busch is batting over .500, (.556 to be exact), regarding top-10s at Kansas, but he's going to need to snap his run of bad luck to improve on that. (30)

17. Daniel Suarez
Suarez's 10th-place finish at Darlington is his fourth top-10 of the season and third top-15 in the last four races. He needs to close the performance gap to his teammate, Chastain. (41)

18. Brad Keselowski
Seven top-20s in the first 12 races of 2022 is a solid mark for RFK Racing given how badly they've struggled in the past. This team is slowly showing improvement. (35)

19. Austin Cindric
Cindric and Hamlin are the two drivers most imperiled by the chance there will be more than 16 winners in the regular season, so the No. 2 team needs to buckle down. (82)

20. Chase Briscoe
Briscoe has a few top-15s on the unrestricted 1.5-mile tracks, but he hasn't cracked the top 10 just yet. It's unlikely that he will do so this week in Kansas. (27)

The App is Back! Don’t forget to download the NBC Sports EDGE app to receive real-time player news, mobile alerts and track your favorite players. Plus, now you can check out articles and player cards. Get it here!

21. Bubba Wallace
Wallace earned his first Kansas Speedway top-15 last fall and he's capable of getting another since five of his 10 efforts on "cookie-cutter" tracks last year were 16th or better. He's going to need to get to the end without damage, however. (85)

22. Cole Custer
Since Custer's first, and so far only, Cup win on the similarly-configured, Kentucky Speedway in 2020, his average finish on this course type has slipped to about 21st. (74)

23. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Stenhouse could defy this prediction and finish in the mid-teens. He did that in half of last year's 1.5-mile races, but we're handicapping him based on his average finish, which is closer to 20th. (60)

24. Aric Almirola
When Almirola finished sixth in the Kobalt Tolls 400 at Las Vegas, it was his first top-10 in 13 races on a similarly-configured, 1.5-mile track so you won't want to risk too much on him. (79)

25. Erik Jones
The King, Richard Petty told Mike Joy and Clint Bowyer to stop talking about his driver when they pointed out how much of a jinx they were. Jones crashed and finished 25th, which makes us wonder if Richard poked them in the chest with his long, bony finger. (46)

26. Ty Dillon
After missing all 10 of the similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks races of 2021, Dillon returned to the fray at Vegas and finished a very respectable 20th. (63)

27. Michael McDowell
McDowell made the most of his opportunity last week with a seventh-place finish in the car-killing Goodyear 400. He was also among the top 10 in the wild card races at Talladega and the Bristol Motor Speedway dirt track. (76)

28. Harrison Burton
Burton's 16th at Vegas was a solid step in the right direction for Burton. There are still a lot of unknowns for this rookie contender, but we will watch him with a lot of interest at Kansas. 33

29. Justin Haley
Haley's first top-10 of the season - a third at Darlington - was aided by the fact that 13 cars retired from the Goodyear 400, but good fortune can often turn a season around. (18)

30. Corey LaJoie
LaJoie was easily the most pleasant surprise at Atlanta with his fifth-place finish, but that event was more akin to the carburetor-restricted superspeedways than he will face this week. (65)

31. Todd Gilliland
Gilliland's 23rd-place finish in the Pennzoil 400 by Jiffy Lube a Vegas is about the only thing we have to go on this week. That is not enough to make for an accurate handicap. (68)

32. BJ McLeod
McLeod's 28th-place finish this spring in Las Vegas and a 30th last fall at Kansas gives him and the team hope they can earn another top-30 in the AdventHealth 400. (91)

33. Cody Ware
Toss out his 26th at Vegas and Atlanta this spring and a 38th on the 1.5-milers in 2021 and Ware has been consistently in the low-30s on this track type. (87)

34. Josh Bilicki
Two top-30 finishes in the past two seasons on similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks define Bilicki's high-water mark, but it will take some attrition for him to get another. (75)

35. Noah Gragson
Gragson is going to be a big unknown this week because his only similarly-configured, 1.5-mile track start in the senior series came in the pack-racing QuikTrip 500 at Atlanta. (42)

36. JJ Yeley
Yeley has only one start on this track type in the past two years. He finished 38th in the second Vegas race of 2021. (90)

PointsBet Sportsbook is our Official Sports Betting Partner and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links. NJ, IA, IN, IL, CO, MI, VA, WV only. 21+. T&C apply. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER

Cheat Sheet: QuikTrip 500 [Atlanta 1]
Pennzoil 400 [Las Vegas 1]
Wise Power 400 [Auto Club]