Advanced metrics picks for LSU vs. Texas A&M
LSU will face Texas A&M on Saturday night to conclude the regular season.
Not many are projecting a blowout, but LSU is a decent favorite. It took a game against UMass for A&M to break its six-game losing streak and the Aggies have fell well short of preseason expectations.
LSU, on the other hand, has been trending up. LSU struggled against Arkansas a couple of weeks ago, but found a way to get the win. The Tigers played a much cleaner game against UAB.
This will be LSU’s first road trip since the Arkansas game. LSU’s been inconsistent away from Tiger Stadium this fall and a game in front of the College Station crowd will provide another test.
Here’s what some advanced stats models have to say about LSU’s chances on Saturday night.
SP+
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Bill Connelly and ESPN’s SP+ gives LSU a 70% chance of victory and a projected winning margin of nine.
HEY HEY! RIVALRY WEEK SP+ PICKS!
Ole Miss 33, MSU 29
Texas 34, Baylor 23
Cincy 26, Tulane 21
Iowa 29, Nebraska 9
FSU 32, Florida 26Ohio St 28, Mich 22
Clemson 33, SC 23
Bama 41, Auburn 15
Ducks 31, Beavers 27
TCU 32, ISU 14
LSU 27, A&M 18
USC 36, ND 25https://t.co/DYRbDrk7hI pic.twitter.com/r8BcTP9RpR— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) November 21, 2022
LSU ranked 13th in the latest SP+ rankings, which is a bit lower than where the Tigers sit in a few other popular ratings.
Regardless, SP+ feels good about LSU’s chances on Saturday.
FPI
Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
LSU ranks 10th in ESPN’s FPI and gives the Tigers a 73.3% chance of winning. ESPN doesn’t post the projected scoring margin, but that percentage should equate to about 10 points. FPI has been kind to LSU this year with the Tigers spending much of the season inside the top 10.
FEI
Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports
FEI ratings are devised from points per possession. LSU sits seventh overall, with the offense ranking 11th and the defense ranking ninth. FEI’s generous this week, projecting LSU to win by 17.7 points.
CFBGraphs
Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
This projection likes LSU a bit more than SP+ and FPI did, but not to the point that FEI did.
LSU @ TEXAS A&M pic.twitter.com/tUiUv3knn9
— parker, u n v e r i f i e d (@statsowar) November 22, 2022
CFBGraphs is projecting a 34.5-point performance from LSU’s offense, leading the Tigers to a win around 10 or 11.
Sagarin
Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
Sagarin is projecting an 11.03-point win for LSU, lining up with a 76% chance of victory. The model projects a total of 42.01 points.
