Advance to Victory Lane: Projected Las Vegas winner and race results

Editor’s note: This story was updated on March 5.

The season started off with a surprise winner in Ricky Stenhouse Jr. at the Daytona 500, and it continued with one of the sport’s winningest drivers returning to Victory Lane in Kyle Busch at Auto Club Speedway. What happens next at Las Vegas Motor Speedway is anybody’s guess.

There have been 10 different drivers who have finished in the top five through the season’s first two races, and this is the second straight season we’ve seen such parity. It’s also the second straight season the NASCAR Cup Series has used the Next Gen car, and it’s apparent that the car has leveled the playing field to a certain degree.

The Chevrolets came into Vegas on a hot streak, having won the first two races. Trackhouse Racing in particular was hot with both of their Chevrolet drivers, Ross Chastain and Daniel Suárez, finishing in the top 10 in the first two races. The defending winner of this race is Alex Bowman, who also drives a Chevy.

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Racing Insights’ original pick to win Sunday’s Pennzoil 400 presented by Jiffy Lube (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX, PRN, SiriusXM) was Denny Hamlin, in a Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota, based on his strong history on 1.5-mile tracks in the Next Gen Car. However, there was a lot of news to unpack this weekend at Las Vegas, as well as a round of practice and qualifying on Saturday, and that has produced our first big changes of the season for Sunday’s updated projections in Advance to Victory Lane, sponsored by Advance Auto Parts.

First the big news, and that was of course the announcement by Hendrick Motorsports that Chase Elliott won’t race Sunday and is out indefinitely after breaking his left leg in a snowboarding accident. Josh Berry, a regular for JR Motorsports in the NASCAR Xfinity Series, will fill in for Elliott on Sunday, and he is reflected in the updated projections.

Also, Hendrick teammates Kyle Larson and William Byron vaulted to the top of the projections thanks in large part to them unloading with fast cars this weekend and showing that speed in practice and qualifying. Meanwhile, Hamlin and Chastain are still expected to be in contention for the race win.

DENNY HAMLIN: He earned 237 points on 1.5-mile tracks last season, third to Ross Chastain (296) and Kyle Larson (261).

KYLE LARSON: He has finished in the top 10 in eight of his last 10 starts at Las Vegas.

ROSS CHASTAIN: He finished in the top three in both Las Vegas races in 2022.

The complete set of factors in Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a winner and full race results. So without further ado, here are the full updated projected race results for Sunday.

Projections as of Sunday, March 5

RACING INSIGHTS PROJECTIONS FOR THE PENNZOIL 400 PRESENTED BY JIFFY LUBE