The Action Network: The 100-1 long shot we like at Sonoma

PJ Walsh

The Action Network specializes in providing sports betting insights/analytics and
is a content partner with NASCAR. Check out more NASCAR betting analysis here.

As a NASCAR fan, I love road course racing. I also look forward to Sonoma Raceway because I’ve done well betting on road-course races in the past.

Because running well at these types of race tracks requires a different skill set than what is needed to click off fast laps on ovals, drivers other than NASCAR’s usual suspects can find ways to get out front, whether it’s because of raw speed or the unique pit strategies teams execute at road course races.

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After perusing betting odds for Sunday’s Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma, I zeroed in on a 100-1 long shot who showed enough speed at last season’s road-course races to jump on now.

Alex Bowman (100-1) to Win

Bowman took well to road-course racing last year in his first full-time season at Hendrick Motorsports, highlighted by a ninth-place finish in this event one year ago.

But what excites me most about Bowman isn’t just the solid run at Sonoma in 2018, but his performance across all three road-course events.

Alex backed up that ninth-place finish with a 14th-place result at Watkins Glen. And while the Charlotte Roval isn’t a typical road course, Bowman excelled there by qualifying third before ultimately finishing fourth.

Bowman certainly wasn’t mixing it up with the leaders in any of these three events, but if he was, he also wouldn’t be priced at 100-1 this weekend.

When it comes to drivers in this price range, we’re simply looking for breadcrumbs as to why one might be able to get out front late due to speed or strategy, and then have the ability to hang on for an upset win.

In Bowman, we’re getting a driver who finished ninth, 14th and fourth at the three road-course races at 100-1 odds.

The entire No. 88 team has been improving all season and is clearly better than it was at this point in 2018, which only adds more value to this big number.

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