9 Packers players that regressed most in 2020
Last week, we highlighted the 16 most improved players for the Green Bay Packers during the 2020 season. Now, it’s time for the other side of the coin: players that regressed.
Regression comes in many forms, but a team that won 13 games in 2019 won 13 more games in 2020 because progression from players out-weighed regression, especially on offense.
The Packers were fortunate that a fewer number of players regressed in a meaningful way in 2020, although the majority of those players came on defense. In fact, seven of the Packers’ preferred starters on defense suffered a regression of some kind this past season.
Here’s a closer look at the players that regressed most during the 2020 season, using overall regular-season grades from Pro Football Focus as our guide:
OLB Za'Darius Smith
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2019 grade: 90.2 2020 grade: 76.7 Regression: 13.5 A regression from elite to good. Smith was still the Packers' third-best defensive player overall, and PFF still liked his performance as a pass-rusher, but his grades tanked against the run and in coverage. His below-average grade as a run defender really hurt his overall grade, leading to the big drop from last year's elite finish.
OLB Preston Smith
Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
2019 grade: 66.1 2020 grade: 53.1 Regression: 13.0 Smith went from a productive player in 2019 to a liability in 2020. While once against poor in coverage, Smith's harsh regression was based on his pass-rushing grade, which dropped by nearly 20 points. His total pressures – on nearly the same amount of total rushes – dropped from 55 to 26.
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2019 grade: 73.1 2020 grade: 62.2 Regression: 10.9 A quality fourth cornerback for the Packers in 2019, Sullivan endured an up and down season as the primary slot cornerback for the defense in 2020. His overall coverage grade dropped by almost 10 points, and he was far worse as a tackler.
CB Kevin King
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2019 grade: 62.5 2020 grade: 55.7 Regression: 6.8 While productive during a breakout season in 2019, King's overall grade was actually only mediocre at PFF. He still managed to regress in a meaningful way in 2020. His run defense grade went way up, but he was among the worst starting cornerbacks in football in both coverage grade and tackling grade.
DL Kenny Clark
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2019 grade: 79.8 2020 grade: 73.8 Regression: 6.0 A tricky early injury and less production as a pass-rusher drove Clark's regression in 2020. He was terrific down the stretch, but a few rough performances after he returned from a groin injury suffered in Week 1 hurt his season grade. Clark's total pressures dropped from 62 to 28.
RB Aaron Jones
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2019 grade: 84.8 2020 grade: 79.4 Regression: 5.4 While once again dynamic as a runner, Jones wasn't nearly as good as a receiver or pass-blocker in 2020. His pass-blocking grade dropped by nearly 30 points, and big plays weren't as common as a receiver.
DL Dean Lowry
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2019 grade: 62.4 2020 grade: 57.3 Regression: 5.1 His value as a run defender continues to crater. In 2018, Lowry graded out at 78.4 against the run. Last year, he fell to 55.1. His pass-rushing grades have remained below average.
Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
2019 grade: 76.7 2020 grade: 73.2 Regression: 3.5 His run grade skyrocketed, but like Jones, he saw sharp downward trends in his grades as both a receiver and pass-blocker in 2020, creating a small regression.
TE Marcedes Lewis
MARK HOFFMAN/MILWAUKEE JOURNAL SENTINEL
2019 grade: 71.0 2020 grade: 67.6 Regression: 3.4 He caught more passes in 2020, but PFF viewed him as a major liability in the passing game. His run-blocking grade went up, which is all the Packers probably care about when grading his season.
Others
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LB Christian Kirksey (-4.3): Unspectacular in two games for the Browns before getting injured last season, Kirksey graded out as one of the worst starting linebackers in football over 11 games with the Packers in 2020. CB Josh Jackson (-8.4): He hardly played in 2019, and he wasn't very good when given opportunities for more playing time in 2020. LB Oren Burks (-16.4): While useful on special teams, Burks has been an unmitigated disaster when on the field for defense. CB Ka'dar Hollman (-22.8): His sample size on defense was just four snaps in 2019. He was well below average over 108 snaps in 2020.
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