5 routes the Thunder can go with Kemba Walker
The Oklahoma City Thunder have acquired another former All-Star in hopes of revitalizing his trade value and gaining more assets in the near future.
OKC received Kemba Walker, a first-round pick and a second-round pick from the Boston Celtics in exchange Al Horford — who was a successful renovation project — Moses Brown and a second-round pick.
But Walker’s situation in Oklahoma City is different than that of Horford or Chris Paul. Both Paul and Horford filled positions of need for the Thunder; Walker would cut into minutes of young guards who the team already likes and potentially the Thunder’s 2021 draft pick(s).
How will the Thunder go about figuring out his spot in the rotation? There are a few different routes they could take, and the Oklahoma City front office has given examples with several veterans over the last two years.
MORE: Picks involved in trade
Grades from ESPN, The Athletic
Kemba to Lakers speculation has already started
The Al Horford route
This one's the easiest to envision. Walker comes in, starts Day 1 but gets plenty of days off, nurses his knee back to health and then gets shut down midway through the season. Horford played 28 of the first 44 games of the season before being shut down. Walker, who played 56 games two seasons ago and 43 this past season before missing the final two Celtics playoff games due to injury, may see even fewer games than that. Horford wasn't sat because of a preexisting injury; it was to make sure he stayed healthy and fresh (and maybe to help the team lose some more games). Walker was adamant about playing through injury in Boston. He fought against being sat and rested. Horford in Oklahoma City was different, understanding the front office's goals. Maybe Walker will feel differently when there isn't postseason basketball to play toward in OKC, and maybe managerial logic that they can get him to a winning team if he follows their plan will provide contentment if his DNPs are more than sporadic. With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Ty Jerome and Theo Maledon, three of the top five projected draft picks being guards, and Lu Dort playing the 2/3, the Thunder are on track to have several options at the guard positions. Walker shouldn't be prioritized over their development.
The Ricky Rubio route
This one's ideal for the Thunder. If Oklahoma City Thunder can find a trade partner in the next four months, would there be reason to keep Walker around at all? After trading Chris Paul for a package that included Ricky Rubio and Kelly Oubre, the Thunder shipped out both of those players within weeks. The Rubio trade helped the team move up to draft Aleksej Pokusevski; the Oubre trade netted the Thunder a protected 2021 first-round pick and a 201 second-round pick. The first-round pick will not convey, so it will turn into future second-round draft capital. Though trade rumors have already started floating around, Walker's contract makes this a much different scenario than Rubio or Oubre. His $73 million over the next two years is seen as a negative, so the Celtics had to attach the No. 16 pick in this year's draft to get rid of him. Rubio and Oubre, on the other hand, were under very reasonable salaries and were good enough to be the centerpieces of the Paul trade. Boston's quick trigger to trade Walker -- the conference finals haven't even started! -- indicates a lack of trade market for the guard. The New York Knicks, Dallas Mavericks and New Orleans Pelicans are the only teams who are desperate for continued playoff contention and have under $100 million entering the offseason. Maybe the Thunder could take advantage. But it seems more likely that Oklahoma City would have to wait a year.
The Chris Paul route
What if the Thunder stumble into playoff contention once again? When they received Paul in the Russell Westbrook trade to the Houston Rockets, all reports indicated that the point guard would not be in Oklahoma City for long. But then the Thunder started to win. They didn't stop. They decided to keep competing and push back the tank a season. Last year, with Gilgeous-Alexander, Horford and Dort leading the way, the Thunder were 19-24 and closer to a play-in spot than the top of the lottery. They weren't in playoff contention, but they were competitive. The tank wasn't truly set into motion until Gilgeous-Alexander suffered a foot injury, one that is preventing him from playing for the Canadian team in the Olympics. With the star out, OKC shut down Horford as well and coasted to an abysmal finish. It was earlier than the Thunder had planned to shut them down, but Gilgeous-Alexander's injury presented the opportunity. The point is, Oklahoma City adapted in both circumstances. They could get home-court advantage? Let's push for the playoffs. The team is playing well? We can rest veterans but don't need to shut them down. Our star is hurt? Time to tank. Next season, Gilgeous-Alexander will be back. The Thunder could get as many as two top-five picks, and they have at least one mid-first-round selection. If best-case scenario happens and the Thunder have Walker, Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, two top-five picks and the other young players who took steps forward last season, they might be a solid team very soon. It's unlikely. Off the court, lottery odds aren't in their favor. On the court, the Thunder need to change quite a bit to be good, as they showed over the final two months last season. The net rating early in the season, too, indicated that the W/L record was not actually indicative of their play, and that opponents may not have been taking them all that seriously. If this does happen, though, and the Thunder are a top-eight team in January, Presti and Co. will have to decide: Should they compete for the playoffs? Or would they once again prefer maximizing on-court time for young players and their odds of landing a great draft pick?
The George Hill route
If Walker plays well, the Thunder could theoretically trade him at the deadline. It doesn't seem likely, and it's because Walker is paid $36 million this coming season. During the season, teams have their finances in order. Only four teams had a payroll under $115 million this past year. Creating enough space to take on a star and then completely revamp the playbook and rotation to accommodate him is really, really tough to do, especially when it needs to be done and perfected by the time the playoffs start. Typically, trades made in-season and at the deadline are for complementary pieces. Aaron Gordon is at the upper end of this list; he's very good, but not a second- or third-best player on a title team. Players like James Harden, DeMarcus Cousins and Timberwolves/Sixers-era Jimmy Butler are outliers, and two of those deals took place very early in the season, when teams had yet to develop a real play style. Walker's injury history makes an early-season trade risky; his contract and role make a deadline deal unlikely. If Walker is traded, it would likely be before or after this season, not during.
The bench route
This route would be shocking, but it needs to be touched upon because multiple Thunder players last year didn't join the team. Those circumstances were completely different, though. Trevor Ariza did not want to play for OKC. Meyers Leonard was told by the organization to stay home. Austin Rivers was likely a combination of both. It's in Walker's best interest to play. To get back to a contender by the time he's in his contract year, Walker needs to prove he's healthy and still has the offensive bursts to put on All-Star-like performances. It's in the Thunder's best interest for Walker to prove those things as well. The better he looks on the court, the better the return will be when Oklahoma City does eventually trade him. If Walker doesn't play, the Thunder would have to give up assets to get his contract off the books. If the Thunder don't manage to trade Walker this offseason, he will get some court time. He'll get enough to show that, like Horford and Paul, he's an impactful enough player to be worth the money over the remaining time in his contract.
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