Which 49ers draft picks have chance to start Year 1?
There’s a consistent theme with the 49ers’ 2021 draft class. All but one of the picks fits into a similar track to a starting role entering their rookie seasons.
It appears based on initial projections for each pick that San Francisco’s eye was toward 2022 and beyond when they made their selections, because the path to starting is cluttered for almost all of them.
They drafted a quarterback, two offensive linemen, two running backs, two cornerbacks and a safety. They have starters lined up for 2021 at all but right guard, where second-round pick Aaron Banks should step in. Outside of that, the starting roles should open en masse next year.
With that in mind, we went through this year’s class to try and gauge the chances each player has of being the starter when the 49ers take the field Week 1:
QB Trey Lance
(AP Photo/Bruce Kluckhohn, File)
One of the reasons the 49ers drafted Lance while holding on to Jimmy Garoppolo is so Garoppolo could start while Lance develops. There are several avenues to him getting on the field his first year, but it would either take a Garoppolo injury or a complete meltdown in camp for Lance to get a start under center. Chances he starts: 8 percent
OL Aaron Banks
Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
Using a top-50 pick on a guard means the team is relatively confident he can solve their issue at right guard. Starting him at RG allows Daniel Brunskill to serve as a do-everything reserve, and pushes players like Colton McKivitz and Justin Skule further down the depth chart to solidify their reserves up front. It would be an issue if Banks, the 48th overall pick, didn't start. Chances he starts: 91.4 percent
RB Trey Sermon
Ken Ruinard-USA TODAY Sports
The 49ers' use of running backs is a little different than the norm. Sermon may not get credit for any starts this year, but he should factor into their run game a ton, and it wouldn't be a surprise if he's their leading rusher by the end of the year. Chances he starts: 24 percent
CB Ambry Thomas
Aug 31, 2019; Ann Arbor, MI, USA; Michigan Wolverines defensive back Ambry Thomas (1) runs an interception back during the game against the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports
The rookie corners already have a steep hill to climb for a starting role. San Francisco is probably set at the starter spots with Jason Verrett, Emmanuel Moseley and K'Waun Williams. Things on the depth chart get shaky after that. Thomas had a big 2019 before opting out in 2020. If he picks up where he left off, he could be the fourth corner and first off the bench if a starter is unavailable. Chances he starts: 13 percent
OL Jaylon Moore
(AP Photo/Rusty Costanza)
The plan is to move Moore, a dominant left tackle in college, to the interior where his 6-4, 311-pound frame will fit better in the NFL. It'd be a good problem for San Francisco to have if Moore pushes for a starting RG job, especially if Banks also plays well in camp. There are too many bodies up front though for Moore to realistically have a shot at starting out of the gate. Chances he starts: 8.3 percent
CB Deommodore Lenoir
(AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)
Lenoir played outside in college, but he figures to move to the nickel corner role with the 49ers. K'Waun Williams has that starting spot nailed down, but Lenoir should contribute on special teams right away and could be the first nickel off the bench if Williams goes down. Chances he starts: 9 percent
S Talanoa Hufanga
(Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)
Hufanga could have a massive impact on special teams in Year 1, but a starting job at safety may not be in his immediate future. The 49ers aren't extremely deep at that position though, especially the strong safety spot where Hufanga projects to play. On the other hand, the team may view him as a Sam linebacker, which opens the door a little for him to earn a starting job right away. Chances he starts: 11 percent
RB Eli Mitchell
Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
Depth in the running back room was a problem for San Francisco last year. It won't be this year. Mitchell is big, fast and could wind up fitting into the Raheem Mostert role long-term. There are just too many players ahead of him going into the year to figure he's the starter at some point. Chances he starts: 3.8 percent
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