Marquise Brown saw 75 percent of the Cardinals’ air yards.
To be honest, there simply isn’t much to take away from a game that saw Clayton Tune start and throw for 58 scoreless yards with two interceptions. Marquise Brown dominated the targets and air yards while Trey McBride remained involved in the Cardinals’ efforts to pass the football as well. Nothing materialized because of Tune’s struggles, but things should improve with Kyler Murray likely to start in Week 10.
Kyle Pitts has run a route on 66 percent of the Falcons’ dropbacks since Week 6.
Over his past four appearances, Pitts has a 16 percent target share and a 19 percent air yards share. He has seen eight percent of Atlanta’s end zone targets. Pitts began the year as an every-down field-stretcher with elite weekly upside. He has been relegated to a role-player with no ceiling.
Keaton Mitchell led the NFL in rushing yards (138) in Week 9.
Rookie Keaton Mitchell gained +108 rushing yards over expected on 9 carries, the most a running back has gained in a single game since Week 10, 2020 (Ronald Jones, +110).
Mitchell had played just 2 snaps all season before playing 13 (21.0%) in Week 9.#BALvsSEA | #RavensFlock pic.twitter.com/9eUTemLKkV
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 5, 2023
He put 40 yards between himself and the No. 2 player, Josh Jacobs. Mitchell also logged the most rushing yards over expected in a single game over the past two years. Most importantly, nearly all of his production came with the starters still in the lineup. Justice Hill got in the game for cleanup duties with some of the other backups, including Tyler Huntley, in the game.
For people interested in what kind of upside Keaton Mitchell might have going forward:
* Handled four carries for 8, 9, 9, 11 yards when the score was 7-0 in Q2.
* Last rush came at 11:27 mark in Q4.
Justice Hill had six ruATTs AFTER that 11:27 mark when starters were pulled.
— Zachary Krueger (@ZK_FFB) November 6, 2023
Dalton Kincaid ran a route on 98 percent of Josh Allen’s dropbacks.
He earned a stunning 32 percent target share, catching 10 passes for 81 yards in the process. As long as Dawson Knox is out, Kincaid looks like a top-five fantasy tight end. Knox may not have a role to come back to with the way Kincaid is playing.
Chuba Hubbard earned 71 percent of the Panthers’ carries.
Miles Sanders remained parked at a 25 percent snap share. Most importantly, Hubbard upped his route rate to 60 percent after only running a route on 40 percent of Bryce Young’s dropbacks in Week 8. Hubbard is dominating the opportunities for Carolina and Sanders has been relegated to backup duties.
D’Onta Foreman out-carried the other Chicago running backs 20-3.
Foreman began the year as a healthy scratch but has been called into action with Khalil Herbert landing on injured reserve a few weeks ago. He remained a committee back for all of his starts until Week 9 but took over the backfield last week. Herbert is eligible to return from IR this week but could sit one more game with the Bears playing on Thursday.
Joe Mixon leads the NFL in carry share (74 percent).
Mixon is tied with Josh Jacobs in carry share. The big difference between the two is Mixon plays on an offense helmed by Joe Burrow while Jacobs’ quarterback is Aidan O’Connell. Mixon’s route rate is also top-five among running backs. Mixon is only the RB17 this year, but I see him closing out the season as a top-12 back.
Jerome Ford logged 25 touches.
That goes down as a career-high for the second-year back. He set a season-high in carry share (54 percent) and his route rate (59 percent) was the second-highest of his season. Ford didn’t do a ton with the opportunities but his workload shows that he is past the ankle injury that limited his snaps in Week 8.
No player has more consecutive touches without a touchdown than Tony Pollard.
Per Ian Hartitz, Pollard is at 136 touches without a score.
Tony Pollard has gone an NFL-high 136 consecutive touches without a touchdown
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 6, 2023
What makes this even more incredible is that Pollard has had an elite red zone role this year. He is second in the NFL in red zone carries and first among running backs in red zone receptions. Is the regression coming? Who knows. Will I keep betting on it? You better believe it.
Aaron Jones beat his season-high in attempts by 11.
Jones rushed 20 times for 73 yards and a score. He also added four receptions for 26 yards. The last time he touched the ball that many times was Week 11 of the 2022 season.
#Packers coach (and birthday boy) Matt LaFleur on Aaron Jones’ (hamstring) status for this week:
“Ready to cut him loose”
On Wednesday, LaFleur said he had “no concerns” about Jones, who wore a red, no-contact jersey in this week’s practices
LaFleur is traditionally… pic.twitter.com/70brcghpZQ
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) November 3, 2023
Packers coach Matt LaFleur said last week he was ready to “cut him loose." He wasn’t kidding. If this role holds, Jones will be able to put up RB1 numbers over the second half of the year.
C.J. Stroud set the record for passing yards in a game by a rookie (470 yards).
He also tied the record for passing touchdowns in a game by a rookie. He was only sacked three times and was not intercepted. Without exaggerating, it was one of the best performances by a rookie quarterback ever. It very well may have been the best.
We finally witnessed the flippening (a real word, I’m sure) of the Colts’ backfield in Week 9. Taylor earned 62 percent of his team’s carries and ran a route on 75 percent of Gardner Minshew’s dropbacks.
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Rashee Rice ran a route on 57 percent of Patrick Mahomes' dropbacks.
After Rice's route rate hit a career-high of 65 percent in Week 7, it looked like the rookie was on the precipice of a breakout. Instead, his route rate has declined in back-to-back weeks.
Davante Adams has a 29 percent target share and a 40 percent air yards share over his past three games.
Those are elite numbers. On the other hand, Adams has 12 catches for 102 yards and no scores over that span. The volume is there. The quarterback play just hasn’t been. Things won’t get any better with Aidan O’Connell under center, but Adams remains one of the league’s most talented wideouts.
Quentin Johnston ran a route on 95 percent of Justin Herbert's dropbacks.
That's the good news. The bad news is that Johnston only commanded three targets. That was good for a 12 percent target share and .09 targets per route. The loss of Josh Palmer forced the Chargers to play Johnston more. It didn't force them to get him the ball more.
Only 46 percent of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua’s targets were deemed catchable by Pro Football Focus.
Per usual, the duo combined for over half of LA’s targets. With Brett Rypien under center, no amount of targets was going to save these two receivers from weak fantasy days. Things should stabilize with Matthew Stafford likely to return after the team’s Week 10 bye.
Cedrick Wilson ran a route on 76 percent of Tua Tagovailoa's dropbacks.
That is the highest single-game route rate for a Miami wide receiver that isn't Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle this season. Waddle was banged-up in Week 9 and even got listed as questionable to return, so Wilson's expanded role was likely a product of an injury ahead of him on the depth chart. Still, his snaps will be worth monitoring when Miami comes out of their Week 10 bye.
Joshua Dobbs is the second quarterback in NFL history to play for three teams in a single year.
Dobbs started for the Titans at the end of the 2022 season in January and has now played for the Cardinals and Vikings this season. He did not take a first-team rep all week and needed head coach Kevin O’Connell to walk him through the plays after he entered the game. Despite being put in a position that would get most quarterbacks buried, Dobbs tossed two scores and rushed for a third in Minnesota’s Week 9 win over Atlanta. He is now second among quarterbacks in rushing yards on the year.
Mac Jones leads the NFL in Turnover Worthy Plays.
Jones’s TWP rate of 5.2 percent trails only four quarterbacks: Desmond Ridder, Gardner Minshew, P.J. Walker, and Tyson Bagent. That list features three backups and a quarterback who was benched last week. Jones can’t keep giving the ball away if he wants to remain the starter in New England.
Chris Olave has earned at least 30 percent of the Saints’ air yards in every game this year.
His target share has only dipped below 20 percent one time. Olave is second in air yards, seventh in targets, and sixth in end zone targets. The second-year receiver is getting the WR1 treatment. He just hasn’t found paydirt for a blow-up game in a few weeks.
Since Week 4, the Giants have a -10 percent pass rate over expected.
That would rank last in the NFL if it was New York’s season-long pace. The run-heavy approach will continue for as long as Tommy DeVito is under center. Saquon Barkley has 110 touches over his previous four games. Despite missing nearly a month of football, Barkley currently ranks eighth in touches.
Zach Wilson ranks 29th in the NFL in yards per attempt (six) and 30th in touchdown rate (1.9 percent).
This should come as a surprise to no one, but Wilson offers no big-play upside or scoring potential while constantly finding new ways to make mistakes. As great as Garrett Wilson is, it will be hard for him to push into the top 20 fantasy receivers with Wilson as his quarterback.
D’Andre Swift has converted on 1-of-14 red zone carries over the past four weeks.
He has five carries within five yards of the goal line over that stretch. They have resulted in negative four yards and no scores. Even after considering how much goal line work Jalen Hurts soaks up, Swift should still be scoring more touchdowns.
George Pickens has averaged 9.6 PPR points in games with Diontae Johnson active during his career.
That number soars to 16.6 points when Johnson is absent from the lineup. Pickens’ target share has dropped to 15 percent over the past two weeks and his targets per route run is at .13. Johnson was a notable roadblock to Pickens’ fantasy production last year and that appears to be holding true in 2023.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba set a season-high in route rate (88 percent) and target share (33 percent).
While it is great to see JSN becoming more involved in the offense, it’s less than ideal that his increase in opportunities came in a game that saw the Seahawks get crushed by the Ravens. Unable to get the offense going on deep or intermediate throws, Geno Smith resorted to short tosses to JSN. Still, his route rate was where fantasy managers needed it to be for WR3 numbers.
Rachaad White leads all running backs in routes over the past four weeks.
White is third in targets and second in catches over that span. The Arizona State back was touted as a difference-maker through the air coming out of college and is finally living up to that promise. As a slight favorite against Tennessee, White will remain near the top of the RB2 ranks this week.
Justice Hill, Tyson Bagent, and Andrew Beck all have as many end zone carries as Derrick Henry.
All four players have three attempts inside the five. Beck is the Texans fullback, for those who were wondering. Pro Football Focus’s expected touchdowns model has Henry with three expected scores on the year. He has actually scored four times, meaning he is overperforming his role that seems meager based on a lack of goal line attempts.
Sam Howell ranks second in passing yards and seventh in touchdowns.
Howell hasn’t been particularly efficient. He is 17th in touchdowns rate and 19th in yards per attempt. But when your team is pushing for a league-high in pass rate over expected, that starts to matter less and less.
Howell may not be Washington’s answer under center, but Eric Bieniemy is treating him like Patrick Mahomes, and it’s resulting in QB1 numbers.