31 Takes: Kessel trade has Penguins hoping for a miracle
Once the local hit piece that said Phil Kessel is a bad influence who gambles too much came out, you knew it was over.
After four seasons in which he scored 110 goals and won two Stanley Cups, Kessel’s time with the Penguins is over, and he’s been traded to Arizona for Alex Galchenyuk. There are other pieces involved (the Pens receive a 2017 first-round defender who may be something and may not be, Arizona lands a fourth-round pick and an ECHL player) so it’s not a classic “It’s one for one” type of highway robbery, but it’s pretty clear the Pens had their hearts set on getting worse next season.
The idea, obviously, is that Kessel is a Bad Influence whose constant complaining pissed everyone off and whose impact on The Culture was what led the Penguins to get swept in the first round by a mediocre Islanders team. If you were wondering, then, which GM would be the first to overreact to a playoff result from last season, those who had Jim Rutherford in the pool can collect your prizes at this time.
There are some provisos here. Kessel wasn’t particularly good last season despite his point-per-game total. Kessel’s eight-team trade list was a hindrance (apparently it was more or less “Arizona and the seven other teams in the Metro”).
That’s in addition to the more obvious reasons you might want to trade Kessel, of course including the obvious holes in his game, the fact that he’ll be 32 in early October, and the $6.8 million AAV he’ll carry for three more seasons. If your team had deficiencies elsewhere on the roster (say, on the blue line or in goal), you could reasonably flip a proven scorer like Kessel for help there, or if you needed to get a ton of cap relief and you used him as basically a salary dump.
But the Penguins didn’t do that. They got a guy who is basically a younger, off-brand Kessel in Galchenyuk. The now-ex-Coyote has basically never done well in terms of underlying numbers, no matter who he plays with or against, where he starts his shifts, and so on. He also seems to bounce around a whole hell of a lot. However, one thing Kessel does that Galchenyuk definitively does not do is score 25 goals a year like clockwork and never miss a game due to injury. Both seem like pretty valuable skills, and Kessel was a point-a-game player last year.
And the fact that Galchenyuk, basically a replacement-level player or worse the last three seasons, only costs $1.9 million less against the cap than Kessel complicates things as well. Because, okay, you can absorb that step back in quality if you’re cutting your cap obligations in half, or even by a third, because you can then spend $3 million or something on upgrading that defense.
But the idea that you’re going to improve on Kessel because you have an extra $1.9 million to spend and can put Galchenyuk, a pending UFA by the way, next to Malkin or Crosby? You’re really putting a lot on the shoulders of a 25-year-old who has fewer points per game since he came into the league than Sam Reinhart and only has three more goals than David Perron. Put another way, Kessel has never scored fewer than 0.72 points per game since 2008-09. That’s tied with Galchenyuk’s best season ever.
Plus what are you getting with the extra $1.9 million? Probably not a big difference-maker, so you’re not making up Kessel’s lost production by committee, either. It’s not like that amount of money is what stands between Rutherford and being able to sign Anders Lee or Artemi Panarin.
So maybe the trade “had to” happen for off-ice reasons. Still tough to imagine Pittsburgh doing worse than they did. The good news, though, is that Rutherford has plenty of time to figure it out before Crosby, Malkin, and Letang are in their mid-30s.
31 Takes
Anaheim Ducks: Everyone leaves their development camp feeling like the future is bright, but in Anaheim’s case, even with money to spend this summer, the present is pretty dark.
Arizona Coyotes: It’s nice that the Coyotes think they’re an elite defensive team but uh, not really. Middle of the pack by a lot of measures, plus above-average but not elite goaltending. Not that Kessel-and-a-prospect for Galchenyuk and mediocre futures isn’t an unequivocal win. But let’s be serious here.
Boston Bruins: Starting to look like that David Backes contract is a huge problem for them. Who could have guessed?
Buffalo Sabres: Wow, they’re gonna trade Ristolainen! And only three years after almost everyone else figured out he’s not that good! Anyway, have fun in Vancouver.
Calgary Flames: Looks like Calgary’ll be signing a one-year deal with Cam Talbot at some point. Really curious to see how “David Rittich plus a guy with too many miles on him who’s not good anymore” works out for them. They haven’t tried that recently at all.
Carolina Hurricanes: Looks like this is their “Plan B” for a backup this season. Still not clear what the “Plan A” is though.
Chicago Blackhawks: Stan Bowman wants to add a forward. I heard Edmonton has one they’re looking to offload. Just something to think about.
Colorado Avalanche: If Bowen Byram is NHL-ready, that’s gonna be a fun defense to watch this season between him, Makar, Girard, and Barrie.
Columbus Blue Jackets: These guys are gonna have to throw insane money at some real mediocre players to make up even part of the ground they lose when Bobrovsky, Panarin, and Duchene walk. Has a team ever lost that much high-end talent in one day in the cap era?
Dallas Stars: I like Joe Pavelski on this roster. Especially if he’s a defenseman. What’s that? He is? Huh… okay.
Detroit Red Wings: If the Wings sign Rob Hainsey and Corey Perry, that’s huge.
Edmonton Oilers: Just, like, lmao.
Florida Panthers: Dale Tallon’s attitude about free agency — “We’re confident we’re gonna make our team better and we’re trying to hit some home runs here. But if we have to hit three singles to score a run, we’ll think about that too, as well.” — is the correct one to have when you’ve got that much cap space.
Los Angeles Kings: I bet the key to the “door to success” has a lot to do with “having talent on the roster.” Good luck!
Minnesota Wild: These are just the kind of signings that will push the Wild over the hump from “missing the playoffs” to “barely missing the playoffs.”
Montreal Canadiens: This was written on June 29. Fun market.
Nashville Predators: “Will adding a good center for too much money help?” is actually a pretty good question for a team in Nashville’s position.
New Jersey Devils: Okay, sure.
New York Islanders: July 1 is going to be a wild day for Lou Lamoriello. Really feels kinda “all or nothing.”
New York Rangers: I mean, it’s not gonna happen, but getting Artemi Panarin would help, though. That is my take.
Ottawa Senators: Look, man, I don’t know what team you think we’re talking about but I have a pretty good feeling the Senators will not be “big players” in free agency.
Philadelphia Flyers: Seems like everyone, including Philly, wants free agent right wings. Good luck with it!
Pittsburgh Penguins: Yeah but no pressure or anything.
San Jose Sharks: Seems like there are 500 great RFAs available this summer. Someone’s gotta get an offer sheet given the tight cap, right? RIGHT?
St. Louis Blues: Not a ton going on with these guys right now, and understandably so. But this is a not-great contract but that’s a Cup hangover for ya.
Tampa Bay Lightning: Do these guys just think the salary cap doesn’t exist or what?
Toronto Maple Leafs: So uhh, why would Ottawa do this? The Leafs are just gonna let Ceci walk after a big arb decision in his favor, maybe trade his rights. It does not make any sense at all for the Senators, but at least they’re only helping out …. their nearest geographical rival?
Vancouver Canucks: I mean, it’s gonna happen.
Vegas Golden Knights: Hard not to see where they’re coming from with the Colin Miller trade but they’re somehow STILL over the cap. Incredible.
Washington Capitals: Speaking of teams that need right wings all of a sudden...
Winnipeg Jets: Well that’s maybe not the best way to enter the free agency period.
Gold Star Award
The winner today? It’s you, the fans.
Minus of the Weekend
Also depending upon what team you’re a fan of, you’re also the losers.
Perfect HFBoards Trade Proposal of the Week
User “typicalsavage” is being typically savage.
To Carolina: Ehlers, Brown
To Toronto: Pesce
To Winnipeg: Kadri, Fleury
Signoff
Hey Brandine, you might could wear these to your job interview.
Ryan Lambert is a Yahoo! Sports hockey columnist. His email is here and his Twitter is here.
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