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31 Takes: You can't say the Avalanche don't deserve a wild card slot

The Colorado Avalanche stand on the cusp of a playoff berth for the second straight year.

If things continue as expected and these guys actually make it in when the dust settles, this will be the first time the Avs made the postseason twice in a row in the cap era. Incredible to think about given the talent they’ve had over the years, or just the number of lucky seasons they’ve put together.

But while you can argue last year was a bit of luck, with Nathan MacKinnon dragging a not-at-all deep roster to the playoffs with a superhuman performance that should have earned him the MVP award, that’s not the case this year.

Colorado was a deeply negative expected-goal difference club for the season, closing their 82-game run at about minus-21. Through The Power Of MacKinnon and some great goaltending, they outperformed that number by more than 41, finishing the year at plus-20 actual goals. In most other respects they were a bad team. But this year? Things have gone much better.

They haven’t been great or anything, but you can’t say they haven’t earned their spot, a shade above plus-1 xG for the year and, because MacKinnon is great and was particularly so in October and November, the team is still sitting comfortably above the break-even in actual goals as well. As recently as February, that didn’t seem like it would be the case.

There’s a little more to this Avalanche season. (Getty)
There’s a little more to this Avalanche season. (Getty)

The team was plagued for a good chunk of the season by not just so-so goaltending, which has largely been uncommon for them the last several years. It’s occasionally been outright bad this year. For the season both Philipp Grubauer and Semyon Varlamov rate as “fine” or slightly better. Collectively they’ve been worth about one extra win above average, which isn’t great but it’s certainly acceptable (though arguably not at that price point).

But there was a very serious lull in January and February that appeared as though it would sink this club. Between Jan. 4 and Valentine’s Day, the team’s goal difference went from plus-16 to minus-5, even as the team outplayed their opponents in all but five of the 16 games in that stretch (54.9 percent CF). The save percentage over that time? A brutal .869, which isn’t going to win you a thing.

Scoring was also definitely a problem in that stretch but that’s an unfortunate bug of a team that just doesn’t have a ton of talent. During that fallow run, Nathan MacKinnon was on the ice for 22 goals in 343 minutes. The rest of the team scored just 26 in, well, considerably more than that, and most of that scoring came with the Soderberg line out there, so their other two lines basically got run over.

But since that rough stretch, well shoot, the goaltending has gone .937 in all situations and the offense has gotten much better. They’ve gone from minus-5 to plus-12 since then even as they’re now getting outplayed quite a bit (47.9 percent CF in the last 21 games). But they’re winning now, often by wide margins, and on the balance of the season have certainly “earned” being a playoff team.

Doesn’t mean they set the world on fire for the full 82 or anything, but they’re right about where you’d expect them to be given that they spent most of the season outplaying opponents and had one really dire stretch. And now it seems as though the team, and the goalies in particular, got hot at the right time.

Which, given the weirdness of the West in general this season, might be all you need to go on a run.

31 Takes

Anaheim Ducks: Is smoking the Oilers even an accomplishment anymore?

Arizona Coyotes: I get it with the Nick Schmaltz extension insofar as if you think he’s going to be around a point a game for the next seven years, and you’re out from under the contract before he’s 30, that ain’t bad at all. But I guess my thing is, “What if he’s not around a point a game?”

Boston Bruins: You definitely don’t want to be losing to the Panthers at this time of year but at least your playoff opponent is losing to a much worse Sens team with much greater frequency.

Buffalo Sabres: Who could have seen this coming?

Calgary Flames: Last time the Flames made a personnel decision based on fitness they hired Glen Gulutzan. Just saying.

Carolina Hurricanes: Carolina got a couple power play goals on Saturday. Hadn’t scored there in nine games. Gotta get everything going at this time of year so that’s nice.

Chicago: I can’t swear on here but holy [crap].

Colorado Avalanche: If this game is a regulation win, the Avs are basically in. Funny how it goes.

Columbus Blue Jackets: If you’re gonna get a line going, it really oughta be your top one.

Dallas Stars: You simply must love Jim Montgomery. Best record in the West since the start of February. Wild.

Detroit Red Wings: Not sure I get it but okay.

Edmonton Oilers: This? This is the good stuff.

Florida Panthers: This is great news for Derek MacKenzie.

Los Angeles Kings: Anyone who gives the sport even passing attention saw all this coming three years ago.

Minnesota Wild: Oh come on.

Montreal Canadiens: Cayden Primeau’s last two seasons (.931 and .933 at 18 and 19 years old, respectively) have been the best in college hockey over that stretch and, last game with Northeastern notwithstanding, was more than ready for pro hockey.

Nashville Predators: These guys haven’t beaten Columbus in the last four tries.

New Jersey Devils: Hey, wow, Pavel Zacha. Alright!

New York Islanders: A Taiwanese billionaire wants to buy both Barclays Center and Nassau Coliseum so he can ultimately buy the Nets.

New York Rangers: As usual, don’t get pumped about random college free agent signings if you’ve never heard of the guy.

Ottawa Senators: Glad to see they’ve gotten to the bottom of things.

Philadelphia Flyers: Not really a surprise that the Flyers are out. Kind of a surprise they hung around this long. Something to build on, I guess.

Pittsburgh Penguins: Oh right, they’ve been really good lately without Evgeni Malkin. Cool.

San Jose Sharks: Hmm. Hmm. Hmmmmmm.

St. Louis Blues: Hey, a win’s a win.

Tampa Bay Lightning: These guys are back below a plus-100 goal difference on the season. Pathetic.!

Toronto Maple Leafs: Just absolutely brutal.

Vancouver Canucks: Jim Benning sees this headline and says, “But what if we can get Gudbranson back?”

Vegas Golden Knights: You mean by giving him NHL minutes?

Washington Capitals: He’s just incredible, folks.

Winnipeg Jets: The Jets have been playing some bad hockey for a while now. You hope Byfuglien helps, but maybe you don’t count on it.

Gold Star Award

Artemi Panarin went off for four assists on Saturday night in Nashville. Pretty good.

Minus of the Weekend

The Hurricanes getting rid of the Storm Surge during the playoffs is the ultimate act of cowardice and betrayal.

Play of the Weekend

Smooth.

Perfect HFBoards Trade Proposal of the Week

User “FreeBobbyFarnham” is getting on the inexplicable “Kessel hasn’t been good this year” bandwagon.

“To Nashville: Phil Kessel, Adam Larsson, Casey DeSmith

To Edmonton: PK Subban, Juuse Saros, Dominik Simon

To Pittsburgh: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins”

Signoff

That sounds okay… ah, ah! Stop! Stop!

Ryan Lambert is a Yahoo! Sports hockey columnist. His email is here and his Twitter is here.