Three adjustments the Raptors need to make in Game 2

In reviewing the tape, the Toronto Raptors were a bit unfortunate to drop Game 1 to the Orlando Magic.

Replay that same game and the Raptors win 80 times out of 100. The Raptors clanked open 3s, got shorted on foul shots and they contested 70 of the Magic’s 90 shots as compared to 55 of Toronto’s 88. Magic coach Steve Clifford said on Sunday that Orlando needs to tighten up moving forward if they want to pull off the upset. The Magic got lucky and they know it.

But such things happen in the playoffs, and now the Raptors are left to pick up the pieces. Game 2 is not a must-win by definition, but it’s not far from it. Raptors fans are a damaged bunch, and all the healing throughout the regular season was undone by D.J. Augustin dropping 25 points in the opener. These are just the ebbs and flows of the postseason, but it’s impossible to squint through the shock and see the bigger picture given the history of this franchise.

Fortunately, the players themselves are better adjusted than their supporters. Kawhi Leonard said in his monotone delivery that it was just “one game,” Fred VanVleet reiterated that the bigger goal is to “win 16 games,” and Nick Nurse kept his sunny disposition as always on a dreary Sunday in Toronto. They remain confident despite falling into a familiar hole and that’s a positive. After all, the Raptors are still favourites, except now they’ll play with the urgency of an underdog and that’s usually when they’re at their best.

The focus moving forward should be on widening the margins so that the Raptors don’t fall victim to a few bad bounces. Nurse’s defensive game plan was mostly solid in Game 1, but the offence dried up and that’s where the focus should be.

Here are three adjustments that should be made in Game 2:

One - Kyle Lowry needs to be more aggressive

It’s impossible not to gawk at Kyle Lowry’s donut, but it’s hardly surprising given his current state. Lowry has been on the decline since 2016, and now it’s to the point where he’s almost strictly a catch-and-shoot scorer. Functionally, he’s some strange cross between Marcus Smart and Patty Mills, not the 20-point scorer of old.

Lowry doesn’t have it in him to drive consistently, or to draw fouls for easy points, especially since continuation rules have tightened up to deny Lowry of those rip-through fouls that he used to bank on for at least four points a game. As seen in Game 1, Lowry has nothing when those 3s aren’t falling.

And those 3s haven’t been falling for most of the year. Lowry goes through hot spells — he shot 42 percent from deep in February and March — but he’s hardly a knockdown shooter. Lowry also shot 30 percent from November through January, and he’s at 26 percent since Mitchell Robinson rolled over his ankle during a meaningless blowout.

To make matters worse, Orlando is scheming for most of Lowry’s favourite moves. The Magic are running him off the line, daring him to scale a 7-footer at the rim, and denying the pocket pass to Serge Ibaka around the elbow. That’s how you end up getting scoreless performances from Lowry when 3s are his only option.

Having said that, there is still space to take the mid-range jumper if Lowry’s willing. It’s not his preferred look — only 12 percent of his field goals have come from the mid-range this season and he’s only made 37 percent — but at some point you have to take the shot that the defence is giving you, if only to make the opponent think twice about their game plan. Augustin took that approach and the Raptors were forced to adjust at halftime. Lowry needs to do the same.

Even in his limited state, Lowry must still upkeep the threat of scoring to be an effective playmaker. Ibaka scoring only five points is a symptom of Lowry’s timidity, because it’s up to Lowry to draw two players to him to free Ibaka for his offence. Likewise, it’s on Lowry to drive and kick so shooters like Green, Gasol and Leonard can cash in on open looks. Lowry doesn’t have the luxury of fading into the background with the way this team is built.

Two - More shots for Leonard and Gasol

Given Lowry’s current struggles, it’s imperative that Kawhi Leonard and Marc Gasol assume bigger roles on offence. The two combined for 27 shots in Game 1, and that figure should be much closer to 37 for the rest of the series.

Orlando pretty much has everything else snuffed out, but there isn’t a simple solution to the middle pick-and-roll between Leonard and Gasol. Aaron Gordon is too bulky to climb around Gasol’s screens, which means Leonard will either be left open from deep or have space to attack an overmatched Nikola Vucevic. And if the defence converges on Leonard, there’s still the threat of Gasol popping out to the 3-point arc.

The Magic were burned so badly on this play that they started switching in the fourth quarter. But that’s hardly a solution since Leonard can easily get Vucevic backtracking before stopping on a dime for a clean look at his favourite elbow jumper. The only benefit of switching was that Gordon was able to hold up Gasol in the post, but stopping the secondary option is hardly a success.

The Raptors need to spam this play until the Magic bring a third defender into the mix. Leonard can easily put up 30 points efficiently, while also collecting a handful of assists to Gasol on the kickout for 3, if the Magic keep playing it straight up. And if Clifford does decide to bring a third defender, Leonard has done a good job of finding the open man.

Lowry can still push the pace and run the fast break whenever possible because nobody else on the Raptors is as aggressive and opportunistic as Lowry is in the open floor. However, when it settles into a halfcourt possession, that’s when Leonard should have the ball with Gasol coming up the rear.

Three - Establish a clear hierarchy on offence

The starting lineup posted an offensive rating of 120.1 despite Lowry going scoreless, but as always, the transitional lineups and bench let them down because there wasn’t a clear plan of attack.

Assuming that Nurse sticks to his eight-man rotation, there will be four routine combinations aside from the starters that will see consistent playing time. Those lineups are: Fred VanVleet with the starters, Gasol and Ibaka in the jumbo lineup, Leonard with the bench, and Siakam and Lowry with the bench.

VanVleet with the starters coughed up 16 points in five minutes, but most of that was fluky. The Magic hit three contested 3s in that stretch and Terrence Ross flopped his way into three free throws. On the season, VanVleet with the starters ranked plus-16 per 100 possessions and there’s no reason why that should be different against the Magic. Gasol and Leonard should run the show.

The Raptors can only hope to bide their time when Gasol and Ibaka share the floor. They can lock down the paint and secure defensive rebounds, but the offence was a mess as there’s too much overlap with Ibaka and Gasol both operating in the middle of the floor. One of them simply has to bite the bullet and camp out in the corner to improve floor spacing. It’s not ideal, but this lineup is only there to soak up minutes with OG Anunoby out with injury.

Leonard with the bench should work, but Nurse only went to this look for two minutes in Game 1. Leonard needs more playing time overall, and the easy solution is to play him more at power forward. Siakam could easily take 38 minutes at the four, while Leonard plays eight and Ibaka takes two. As for how the offence would run, the Raptors should keep it very simple with Leonard working around a screen from Ibaka. Or better yet, just let him cook in isolation.

Lastly, Lowry and Siakam with the bench is going to be a work in progress. Lowry and Ibaka can run pick-and-roll, but the Magic are sitting on the midrange jumper for Ibaka so he might need to try his luck from deep. Otherwise, it’s Siakam attacking Jonathan Isaac one-on-one with help coming at the basket, which also isn’t ideal. The best course of action might be to screen off the ball to maybe coax a switch with Siakam on Wes Iwundu, Michael Carter-Williams, or Terrence Ross. Otherwise, this group will likely need to make its hay by getting easy baskets in transition from their defence.

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