2023 NFL mock draft: Pre-free agency first-round projections featuring QB trades
We’re still less than a couple months away from the 2023 NFL draft, but we’re in the thick of draft season where there are no shortage of storylines, especially involving this quarterback class and the No. 1 overall pick.
With NFL free agency set to begin next week, we’re unveiling our first NFL Wires mock draft, which features some big quarterback trades. Not only do we have a trade for first overall, but a big-name veteran quarterback finds a new home. And, in what won’t come as a total surprise, three of the top four picks are quarterbacks — but they might fall in the order you think.
Our NFL Wire editors made their selections for the first round of the draft ahead of free agency:
1. Carolina Panthers (from CHI): QB Bryce Young, Alabama
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Trade details
Bears receive: Nos. 9, 39, 2024 first-round pick, 2024 third-round pick, 2025 first-round pick
Panthers receive: No. 1
Given that he has the highest ceiling in the draft, which was only solidified by his record-breaking combine performance, Anthony Richardson is awfully tempting here. But if the Panthers are giving up this much, the investment has to be at least somewhat of a safe one—and it’s safe to say that Young is the most pro-ready passer here. The 2021 Heisman winner’s mix of accuracy, poise, playmaking ability and football IQ is unmatched in this class, and may remind some folks of (a smaller) Joe Burrow. – Anthony Rizzuti, Panthers Wire
2. Houston Texans: QB Anthony Richardson, Florida
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The Texans miss out on their initial SEC quarterback, but take another one. Richardson showed off his athleticism and cannon at the NFL combine and has the mentality of a leader. New offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik has a signal caller in the mold of Cam Newton, but more with a mind to throw first than to run. The run-pass option for Houston also has more cohesion as Richardson and Texans running back Dameon Pierce were together in Florida in 2021. Houston has a quarterback they can insert into the lineup immediately and expect big things on offense. – Mark Lane, Texans Wire
3. Arizona Cardinals: EDGE Will Anderson Jr., Alabama
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In this scenario where C.J. Stroud is still on the board, a trade down seems very likely. It might force the Colts to trade up a spot to avoid getting leapfrogged. However, the writers were patient and Indy didn’t have to get into a bidding war. If the Cardinals stay put, there is no reason to get cute. They land the best pass rusher in the draft. He produced at the highest level against the best competition and he has the athleticism, motor and smarts to be an elite pass rusher at the next level.
With all the talk that perhaps Texas Tech’s Tyree Wilson could go before Will Anderson and whispers that the Cardinals are big fans of Wilson, in the end it is just draft subterfuge. Anderson is a home run pick at a big position of need for Arizona. As for Anderson’s size, if the Cardinals play a defense similarly schemed to the Eagles’ last season, he easily can be a souped up version of Haason Reddick at the rush linebacker position where he had 16 sacks last season. – Jess Root, Cards Wire
4. Indianapolis Colts: QB C.J Stroud, Ohio State
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With both Richardson and Young off the board, it wouldn’t be a total surprise to the see the Colts move up one spot to secure Stroud. However, without a bidding war taking place, we took the risk of holding tight. It worked out in this scenario, and the Colts were rewarded with a fantastic prospect in Stroud without having to give up additional draft capital.
Stroud checks nearly all of the boxes for the Colts. He has pinpoint accuracy, delivers the ball with impeccable anticipation and can layer the ball to all levels of the field. He’s a strong leader who appears to command the attention of the room, which is a huge plus for the Colts. The questions about his abilities outside of structure may be valid, but the fact that he acknowledged those issues at the combine shows the type of accountability the Colts would get at the quarterback position. Stroud brings a high floor as a passer to the NFL, and he has the tools to start right away. His ceiling will be determined by the obsession he brings to his craft and the willingness of the coaching staff to let him develop at his own rate. – Kevin Hickey, Colts Wire
5. Seattle Seahawks (from DEN): EDGE Tyree Wilson, Texas Tech
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Georgia DT Jalen Carter is tough to pass on here even with his legal issues, but the Seahawks still get a very interesting piece for their defensive line without the baggage. Tyree Wilson comes equipped with a frame that includes an 86” wingspan and a record of proven results. Over the last two seasons at Texas Tech he totaled 14 sacks and 27.5 tackles for a loss. – Tim Weaver, Seahawks Wire
6. Detroit Lions (from LAR): CB Christian Gonzalez, Oregon
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Gonzalez checks practically every box athletically with his size, speed and all-around fluidity. He’s got some impressive natural instincts in man coverage and is capable of adapting to covering different types of receivers on the outside. The Lions sorely need help at outside CB, where Jeff Okudah is unreliable and Jerry Jacobs is better-served being the complement to a No. 1 instead of the No. 1 corner. The pick here would have been Jalen Carter if not for his pending legal issues. – Jeff Risdon, Lions Wire
7. Las Vegas Raiders: QB Will Levis, Kentucky
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After three quarterbacks went off the board in the first four picks, the Raiders are lucky that Levis fell to them at No. 7. Levis might have the best arm in this class and does have a lot of high-end traits that make him a worthwhile gamble. He needs to show that he can stay healthy and improve his accuracy, but Levis could become a good starter rather quickly in Las Vegas given all of the weapons around him. – Marcus Mosher, Raiders Wire
8. Atlanta Falcons: DL Jalen Carter, Georgia
AP Photo/Brett Davis
With the top four quarterbacks off the board, the Falcons take the best player available in Georgia’s Jalen Carter. While the off-the-field concerns stemming from Carter’s reckless driving and racing charges may scare off teams picking in the top five, he’s worth the risk for Atlanta here at pick No. 8. In terms of overall talent, there’s nothing not to like about Carter’s game. He’s a versatile interior lineman with the perfect mix of pass-rushing ability and strength to stop the run. Falcons defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen’s experience as a DL coach will help maximize Carter’s rare skill set. – Matt Urben, Falcons Wire
9. Chicago Bears (from CAR): OT Paris Johnson Jr., Ohio State
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After the Bears trade back eight spots to land a boatload of additional picks – including two future first-rounders – and with Will Anderson and Jalen Carter off the board, Chicago can focus on another big need. Building around quarterback Justin Fields needs to be a priority this offseason, and adding one of the draft’s top tackles in Paris Johnson Jr. will go a long way in helping Fields take that next step. Johnson has the athleticism and size to anchor the left side of the offensive line, where he’s solid in pass protection and good at sustaining blocks in the run game, which is what Luke Getsy’s offense calls for. Johnson is a plug-and-play left tackle who would help anchor an offensive line that was one of the NFL’s worst in pass protection last season. – Alyssa Barbieri, Bears Wire
10. Philadelphia Eagles (from NO): DE Nolan Smith, Georgia
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Nolan Smith made himself some money with his NFL combine performance and he’d be a perfect fit in Philadelphia. An athletic edge rusher that can do more than just rush the passer, Smith would help the NFL’s top sack unit maintain their competitive edge, while still being able to learn on the go if Brandon Graham returns on a short term deal. Smith also offers versatility and could be utilized at Haason Reddick’s SAM linebacker position as well. – Glenn Erby, Eagles Wire
11. Tennessee Titans: OT Peter Skoronski, Northwestern
AP Photo/Kamil Krzaczynski
The Titans are in desperate need of a new franchise left tackle after cutting Taylor Lewan, and barring a big signing in free agency, the No. 11 overall pick is the likely the route Tennessee will take. The preference here was Ohio State’s Paris Johnson Jr., but with him off the board in this mock, Northwestern’s Peter Skoronski is a good consolation prize. There is some concern about Skoronski’s arm length translating to a successful tackle in the NFL, but even if he doesn’t pan out there he figures to work out just fine as a guard, another area of need for the Titans’ offensive line. Tennessee hasn’t had success drafting tackles in recent years, so getting one who can play inside and out is a good way to hedge their bet. – Mike Moraitis, Titans Wire
12. Houston Texans (from CLE): WR Quentin Johnston, TCU
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What helps any quarterback is his targets, and Anthony Richardson gets a fellow first-rounder to grow with Johnston. Johnston provides a big target at 6-4 and would give the Texans two wideouts with length as third-year Nico Collins is also 6-4. Johnston was productive in his 14 games last year with the Horned Frogs as he gathered 60 catches for 1,069 yards and six touchdowns. The move also gives the Texans flexibility with Brandin Cooks in case the 29-year-old wants to play for another team in his ninth NFL season. – Mark Lane, Texans Wire
13. Green Bay Packers (from NYJ): WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio State
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Trade details:
Jets get QB Aaron Rodgers
Packers get No. 13
Isn’t it ironic? Don’t you think? A little too ironic? The Packers trade away Aaron Rodgers and then take a wide receiver with the first-round pick received from the Jets, snapping a two-decade streak of not taking a wide receiver in the first round. It’s almost too delicious. Despite missing much of last year, Smith-Nijgba was truly elite in 2021, and he proved his status as one of the draft’s top receivers at the combine. He’s lightning quick, dangerously deceptive as a route runner and the perfect complement to speedster Christian Watson. In Smith-Njigba, Watson and Romeo Doubs, the Packers have an excellent young trio surrounding Jordan Love, the new starter. – Zach Kruse, Packers Wire
14. New England Patriots: OT Broderick Jones, Georgia
AP Photo/John Amis
No, this isn’t a sexy choice like it would have been if the Patriots went after a receiver or cornerback. But taking an offensive tackle early is the right thing to do, even if it isn’t necessarily exciting. Do you know what is exciting? Not seeing Mac Jones constantly plastered on his back. It would also be nice to not have positive-yard plays called back because of boneheaded penalties. None of that stuff gets fixed with a receiver or corner. Georgia’s Broderick Jones is a fit that can make the whole team better. He’s long, athletic and disciplined from countless reps in the best conference in college football. – Jordy McElroy, Patriots Wire
15. Green Bay Packers: TE Dalton Kincaid, Utah
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Trading away Rodgers and then taking Smith-Nijba and Kincaid with back-to-back first-round picks is almost too cruel to the future Hall of Famer to fathom, but just imagine a Packers offense spearheaded by Love and all these weapons. Remember, back in the early days of Rodgers as the starter, the Packers were loaded around the quarterback on offense. This is a chance to replicate the formula with Love. In Kincaid, the Packers get a dynamic pass-catching tight end and possibly one of the best overall pass-catchers and playmakers in the entire draft class. Adding Smith-Nijgba and Kincaid to what the Packers have already built on offense could turn this group into one of the NFL’s best, giving Love a golden opportunity to continue the incredible quarterbacking legacy in Green Bay. – Zach Kruse, Packers Wire
16. Washington Commanders: CB Devon Witherspoon, Illinois
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It’s offensive line or cornerback for the Commanders. With the top three offensive linemen off the board, Washington adds Witherspoon. The addition of Witherspoon gives the Commanders an outstanding trio of corners in Kendall Fuller, Benjamin St-Juste and Witherspoon. When you factor in safeties Kamren Curl and Darrick Forrest, that’s an excellent young secondary. Witherspoon is the ideal pick for the Commanders, as he is unafraid of sticking his nose in the run game and he’s also seemingly always around the football. Next, Washington can look to add to the offensive line after getting its cornerback. – Bryan Manning, Commanders Wire
17. Pittsburgh Steelers: DL Myles Murphy, Clemson
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The Steelers have multiple needs that could be filled by this first-round pick but with the No. 32 overall pick in their pocket, Pittsburgh can go best player available at No. 17. Murphy is a relentless pass rusher with an explosive step and quickness for a man weighing 268 pounds. Murphy is a lot like former Steelers edge rusher Bud Dupree coming out of Kentucky as a pure defensive end. The Steelers have practically no depth behind T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith and Murphy can not only work in with them but has the frame to line up on the edge in base packages similar to DeMarvin Leal. – Curt Popejoy, Steelers Wire
18. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (from DET via HOU): CB Joey Porter Jr., Penn State
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First trade details:
Lions receive: Nos. 33, 73
Texans receive: No. 18
Second trade details:
Texans receive: Nos. 19 (1st round), 174 (6th round), 253 (7th round)
Bucs receive: Nos. 18 (1st round), 201 (6th round)
Back in 2020, the Bucs moved up one spot in the teens to make sure they landed an elite prospect at their biggest position of need who had no business still being on the board. That was offensive tackle Tristan Wirfs, who is already a Pro Bowler and All-Pro, and that’s the kind of potential Porter has at corner. The Bucs are about to lose two of their top three corners to free agency, and Porter’s skill set is a perfect fit for Todd Bowles’ defense. He should easily be a top-10 pick, and the Bucs get a fantastic blend of need and value with a corner who plays his position with the same mentality that made his dad a Pro Bowl defender in his day. – Luke Easterling, Bucs Wire
19. Houston Texans (from TB): DE Lukas Van Ness, Iowa
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The Texans trade up with the Detroit Lions at No. 18 overall with their Nos. 33 (Round 2) and 73 (Round 3) overall selections for a crack at three first-rounders. However, Houston continues to work the phones and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are willing to swap places. Houston moves down to No. 19 overall and picks up Nos. 174 (Round 6) and 253 (Round 7) from the Bucs. The Texans throw in No. 201 (Round 6) as part of the swap. Adding Van Ness gives new coach DeMeco Ryans his premier edge rusher to work with — kind of like in San Francisco when he had Nick Bosa. The Texans’ Day 1 draft approach reflects a modern approach to the game: pass the ball, and affect the opposing passer. Nick Caserio also has extra picks to build packages to take specific players on Day 3, which is where the personnel department banks much of their draft prep. – Mark Lane, Texans Wire
20. Seattle Seahawks: RB Bijan Robinson, Texas
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No, the Seahawks don’t need another running back. That’s never stopped them before, though and Bijan Robinson isn’t just your average prospect. Anyone who draws comparisons to Barry Sanders is worth a long look no matter what your RB situation is, so Seattle takes a potential generational rusher here they can build their ground game around. Odds are they could also get a decent return in a trade for Offensive Rookie of the Year Ken Walker, as well. – Tim Weaver, Seahawks Wire
21. Los Angeles Chargers: EDGE BJ Ojulari, LSU
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The Chargers need to add speed to their offense to unlock QB Justin Herbert. But they also need more talent in the edge defender room behind Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack. Last season, we saw Los Angeles struggle to get pressure after Bosa went down with a groin injury in Week 3. Ojulari, the brother of Azeez, the EDGE for the Giants, finished second only to Alabama’s Will Anderson among SEC defenders in pressure percentage in 2022. Only 20 years of age, Ojulari has the burst, bend and ascending pass rush repertoire to pin his ears back and win the edge consistently. – Gavino Borquez, Chargers Wire
22. Baltimore Ravens: WR Jordan Addison, USC
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The Ravens have been vocal about revamping their wideouts after struggling to find consistency at the position over the years. Addison is regarded as one of the top wide receiver options in the 2023 draft class, and would give quarterback Lamar Jackson another quality weapon next to wideout Rashod Bateman, assuming the signal caller stays in Baltimore. Addison can separate from defenders consistently and has proven himself as a high-volume player, and if used correctly by the team that drafts him could turn into a star at the NFL level. – Kevin Oestreicher, Ravens Wire
23. Minnesota Vikings: WR Josh Downs, North Carolina
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This is a selection that hasn’t been seen much for the Vikings. Yes, they have been sent wide receivers, but Downs hasn’t been a common choice. He is the perfect complement to Justin Jefferson. With a playstyle similar to Stefon Diggs, Downs runs routes with explosiveness and technique to create separation. When he doesn’t create separation, he catches contested passes at a 70% rate, which is tops in the class. Getting Jefferson a running made at wide receiver should be a priority and they get a really good one in Downs. – Tyler Forness, Vikings Wire
24. Jacksonville Jaguars: CB Deonte Banks, Maryland
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General manager Trent Baalke values size, length, and athleticism. It’s the reason Travon Walker and Devin Lloyd were the Jaguars’ first-round selections last year, and Deonte Banks checks all the same boxes. The 6-foot, 197-pound corner has a 42-inch vertical and ran a 4.35-second 40-yard dash at the combine. In Jacksonville, Banks would be the long-term solution opposite Tyson Campbell and give the Jaguars a cornerback duo to build their secondary around. – Adam Stites, Jaguars Wire
25. New York Giants: WR Zay Flowers, Boston College
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At 5-foot-10 and 172 pounds, Zay Flowers doesn’t fit the mold of what the Giants appear to need. Many believe they need a strong, tall outside receiver capable of winning contested balls and dominating in the red zone. But general manager Joe Schoen has dismissed that notion, downplaying the need for a WR1 and claiming that anyone who can get open would be a priority. Based on the way the board fell, and assuming the Giants addressed linebacker and defensive line in free agency, they grab the Schoen prototype in Round 1. – Dan Benton, Giants Wire
26. Detroit Lions (from DAL): S Brian Branch, Alabama
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Trade details:
Cowboys receive: Nos. 33, 81, 2024 3rd-round pick
Lions receive: No. 26
Giving up that much in a trade requires serious confidence in a player being a big hit. With a bonus 2nd-rounder and 3rd-rounder (which didn’t convey here) acquired in the earlier trade providing some flexibility, jumping back into the first round to grab an instant starter at the slot DB role makes sense. Branch brings exceptional tackling, strong short-area coverage skills and a high-level football IQ to a position where the Lions have struggled for years to find capable play. He’s a great fit for the modern NFL and also for Aaron Glenn’s aggressive style of defense. – Jeff Risdon, Lions Wire
27. Buffalo Bills: OL O'Cyrus Torrence, Florida
AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack
Truthfully, the way this draft falls is a nightmare for the Bills. Buffalo misses out on the top receivers and Bijan Robinson, meanwhile, when they do get on the clock some of the best defensive linemen such as Calijah Kancey and Bryce Breese are still there. Buffalo really can’t afford to invest another top pick in the defensive front. It’s time to hit the offensive line and Torrence is still a great pickup. The Bills have not used a first rounder on the O-line since 2009 and they have opponents all over the division that have dominating D-tackles (Quinnen Williams, Christian Wilkins, etc.). Not to mention, the reason the Bills haven’t had a good run game to complement QB Josh Allen isn’t because of a lack of rushers. Pro Football Focus graded the Bills’ offensive line as the 23rd best in the NFL in 2022. Torrence is the move. – Nick Wojton, Bills Wire
28. Cincinnati Bengals: DL Calijah Kancey, Pittsburgh
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This is a very tough call with Anton Harrison and Michael Mayer on the board at offensive tackle and tight end, respectively. But those are positions the Bengals can handle well in free agency or, in the case of tight end, in a very deep draft class. A team doesn’t just go and get another Kancey, who has had whispers of Aaron Donald around his name. More apt for Bengals fans, though, might be Geno Atkins. Kancey is a superb interior disruptor the defense lacks. Putting him next to DJ Reader with names like Trey Hendrickson, Sam Hubbard and Joseph Ossai on the edge will be a huge, needed upgrade to the pass-rush. – Chris Roling, Bengals Wire
29. New Orleans Saints (from SF): TE Michael Mayer, Notre Dame
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The Saints like to solve their biggest problems in free agency, so look for them to add a veteran defensive tackle and running back ahead of the draft to address those issues. That leaves tight end and defensive end among their top remaining priorities, and Mayer is a multidimensional player who can push Adam Trautman further down the depth chart. He’s nearly undefeated on contested catches and almost automatic in converting first downs, but he’s also one of the most-experienced blocking tight ends in the draft class. He and Juwan Johnson (if he’s re-signed) can be a very dynamic duo for New Orleans. – John Sigler, Saints Wire
30. Philadelphia Eagles: RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Alabama
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Pro Bowl running back Miles Sanders is a free agent and may have priced himself out of Howie Roseman’s range with his breakout season. Boston Scott is also a free agent and could have suitors on the open market as well. There’s been talk of Philadelphia having eyes for Texas running back Bijan Robinson, but the most logical fit could be the dual-threat running back from Alabama. Gibbs led the Crimson Tide with 926 yards on 151 rushing attempts for 6.1 yards per carry as well as seven touchdowns. A dynamic dual threat that plays similarly to Alvin Kamara and Dalvin Cook, Gibbs led Alabama in receptions with 44 for 444 yards and three touchdowns. – Glenn Erby, Eagles Wire
31. Kansas City Chiefs: OT Anton Harrison, Oklahoma
AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki
I would be lying if I said I wasn’t biting my nails waiting to see if I could get a left tackle of the future for Kansas City at pick No. 31. I contemplated trading up a few times, but ultimately settled on seeing how things played out. I feel like I lucked into solving the team’s biggest need by doing so. Harrison (6-foot-4, 315 pounds) might not immediately play the left tackle position for the Chiefs, but he’s a player who has the upside to develop into a long-term starter there. He’s just 21 years old and is already a highly-polished pass-blocker, allowing just 4 sacks and 33 pressures in 1,002 pass-blocking snaps over three years at Oklahoma. He still has some developing to do as a run-blocker. He’ll probably not be a guy who creates a lot of movement off the ball, but he has the movement ability and skills to stick a block in space. – Charles Goldman, Chiefs Wire
