2023 NFL mock draft: 1st-round projections heading into the regular season
We’ve finally got our first full weekend of college football in the books, and now Week 1 of the NFL regular season is up next.
This past weekend saw some of this year’s top college prospects make the most of their first chance to improve their draft stock, while some of the most hyped players are already living up to the high expectations they carried into the year.
As we look ahead to the first week of NFL games that actually count, here’s an updated look at how the first two rounds of the 2023 NFL draft could shake out:
*NOTE: The Miami Dolphins forfeited their first-round pick in next year’s draft as a result of the NFL’s investigation into tampering violations.
1. Houston Texans | Alabama EDGE Will Anderson
(AP Photo/Vasha Hunt)
Even if the Texans end up with this pick, it might not be Davis Mills’ fault. If he plays well enough, Houston could opt to spend this selection on the clear-cut top overall player in the draft, giving Lovie Smith a dominant edge rusher.
2. Atlanta Falcons | Georgia DL Jalen Carter
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The Falcons just stole Desmond Ridder in the third round, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see them pass on a quarterback here. Instead, they follow the Texans lead, going with the best value and a dominant, disruptive force for their defensive front.
3. Seattle Seahawks | Florida QB Anthony Richardson
(AP Photo/Gary McCullough)
If this pick would have surprised you last week, that’s understandable. After what Richardson did against No. 7 Utah in Saturday’s upset win, nobody should be shocked to see his dynamic skill set and sky-high potential getting projected in this range.
4. Chicago Bears | Northwestern OT Peter Skoronski
(AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)
Yes, Justin Fields still needs a true No. 1 receiver, but the pass-catchers won’t matter much if the offensive line doesn’t get some help. Skoronski has all the traits to become a franchise left tackle at the next level, which makes him worthy of top-five consideration.
5. New York Giants | Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud
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Daniel Jones clearly isn’t the franchise quarterback the Giants drafted him to be, and the new regime is sure to take their own swing at finding that guy. This scenario would be ideal, allowing them to land the preseason consensus atop the quarterback board.
6. Carolina Panthers | Alabama QB Bryce Young
(AP Photo/Vasha Hunt)
It’s possible that Baker Mayfield does enough to warrant an extension in Carolina, but it’s not likely. If the Panthers could end up with Young here instead, it would be a huge upgrade for Carolina’s future at the game’s most important position.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars | Ohio State WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
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The Jags need to keep doing everything they can to help Trevor Lawrence reach his lofty potential, and this scenario gives them their pick of the top pass-catchers in the class. Smith-Njigba’s early exit from Saturday’s win over Notre Dame proved just how much he’s missed when he’s not on the field.
8. Detroit Lions | Kentucky QB Will Levis
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The Lions might be just good enough this year to play themselves out of the top passers on the board, but Levis is an intriguing name to keep tabs on this season. If he can be more consistent, he’s got all the tools to warrant a top-10 pick as Jared Goff’s replacement.
9. New York Jets | Penn State CB Joey Porter Jr.
(AP Photo/Doug McSchooler)
The Jets landed one shutdown corner in this year’s draft (Sauce Gardner), but they sure could use another one. The son of a dominant NFL defender, Porter looked untouchable Saturday against Purdue, and has the size/length combo NFL scouts love at the position.
10. Washington Commanders | Maryland OT Jaelyn Duncan
(AP Photo/Julio Cortez)
Assuming either Carson Wentz or Sam Howell shows enough this season to keep Washington from targeting a quarterback here, they’ll need a long-term solution at left tackle. Duncan has the size, athleticism, length and physicality to quickly develop into that kind of blind-side protector.
11. Pittsburgh Steelers | Georgia CB Kelee Ringo
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Offensive line is obviously the biggest need, but the Steelers haven’t spent a first-round pick on that unit in a decade, and the board doesn’t do them in favors in that department here. It comes down to corner or pass rusher instead, and with quality options at both, they opt for the slightly bigger need.
12. New England Patriots | Clemson EDGE Myles Murphy
(AP Photo/Stew Milne)
There are bigger needs elsewhere, but the value is just too much to pass up here, especially at a premium position. Murphy could easily be a top-10 selection, making him an easy bargain for Bill Belichick’s defense at this spot.
13. Houston Texans (from CLE) | LSU WR Kayshon Boutte
(Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)
After landing the best overall player in the draft, the Texans help their young quarterback by landing a steal at wide receiver. Boutte checks every box NFL teams are looking for in a potential No. 1 target, and he’s tested weekly by SEC competition.
14. Arizona Cardinals | Alabama CB Eli Ricks
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Since the departure of Patrick Peterson, the Cardinals have lacked a true shutdown corner with the size, length and athleticism to handle an opponent’s top receiver. A transfer from LSU, Ricks brings all of those traits to Tuscaloosa, with a chance to earn a top-15 draft slot.
15. Philadelphia Eagles (from NO) | Oregon LB Noah Sewell
(Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images)
Nakobe Dean could be a third-round steal for the Eagles from this year’s draft, but they still need another rangy, three-down playmaker at the second level. Sewell is a complete defender who can defend the run and the pass at an extremely high level.
16. Tennessee Titans | Notre Dame TE Michael Mayer
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Treylon Burks was the perfect pick to replace A.J. Brown at wide receiver, but this offense still needs a complete tight end who can make big plays in the passing game, as well as help Derrick Henry out on the ground. Mayer is the man for the job, and would be a value pick at this spot.
17. Minnesota Vikings | USC WR Jordan Addison
(AP Photo/Ashley Landis)
There are some sensible fits on defense here, but Adam Thielen just turned 32, so the Vikings could be looking for a long-term running mate for Justin Jefferson. Addison has the explosiveness, route-running skills and big-play ability to be the perfect match.
18. Las Vegas Raiders | Clemson DL Bryan Bresee
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This pick has to be in the trenches, and it doesn’t really matter which side of the ball it’s on. In this scenario, the better value comes on defense, where the Raiders land a highly touted recruit who missed most of the 2021 season with an injury, but looked dominant once again Monday night against Georgia Tech.
19. Indianapolis Colts | Miami (FL) QB Tyler Van Dyke
(Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
The Colts spent the 2022 draft building around Matt Ryan, but next year, they should think about drafting his eventual successor. Van Dyke has promising traits, and could climb into the first round if he’s able to prove he can be consistent with his accuracy and decision-making skills.
20. Seattle Seahawks (from DEN) | Notre Dame EDGE Isaiah Foskey
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After landing their new franchise quarterback at the top of the draft, the Seahawks can use this pick to bolster a premium position on the other side of the ball. Foskey would pair up with 2022 second-round pick Boye Mafe to give Seattle a promising tandem of young edge rushers.
21. Dallas Cowboys | Georgia OT Broderick Jones
(AP Photo/Brett Davis)
There are holes on defense that need to be addressed, but none of them are more pressing than rebuilding the offensive line. Even if Tyler Smith can take over one of the tackle spots, the Cowboys need a long-term solution on the opposite side, and Jones looks like a promising candidate.
22. Philadelphia Eagles | Texas RB Bijan Robinson
(AP Photo/Chuck Burton)
When you’ve got multiple first-round picks, you can afford the luxury of spending one on a running back, especially when he’s as talented as Robinson. A three-down playmaker, Robinson might be a top-10 overall prospect in this class, making him worthy of being the only first-rounder at his position.
23. Baltimore Ravens | TCU WR Quentin Johnston
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I’ve been mocking this match for a while now, and I still like it too much to stop. Johnston has the size, athleticism and playmaking ability to be exactly what Lamar Jackson needs to take the Ravens’ passing game to the next level.
24. Cincinnati Bengals | Clemson LB Trenton Simpson
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The Bengals did a solid job of reloading their biggest areas of need this offseason (offensive line, secondary), so next year’s top pick could be used on an athletic, versatile defender for the front seven. Simpson would be the perfect fit, thanks to his ability to make big plays in every phase of the game.
25. Miami Dolphins (from SF) | Georgia EDGE Nolan Smith
(Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
Jaelan Phillips has a promising future, but the Dolphins need another young, explosive edge rusher to pair him with. Smith played in the shadow of last year’s loaded Bulldogs defense, but should get plenty of chances to shine this season.
26. Green Bay Packers | North Carolina WR Josh Downs
(Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images)
Sure, the Packers traded up for Christian Watson, and appear to have a fourth-round steal in Romeo Doubs from this year’s draft, as well. That shouldn’t stop them from loading up Aaron Rodgers with even more explosive pass-catchers, and Downs would certainly fit the bill.
27. Los Angeles Chargers | Ohio State OT Paris Johnson Jr.
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Rashawn Slater is already a franchise left tackle, but the Chargers need both an immediate upgrade and a long-term solution on the other side. Johnson is a versatile blocker who can play guard or tackle, and has all the athletic traits to develop into a dominant player.
28. Detroit Lions (from LAR) | Notre Dame S Brandon Joseph
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The Lions need more playmakers at both levels of the secondary, so this pick comes down to finding the best value at either safety or corner. They opt for the latter in this scenario, landing a Northwestern transfer who has the instincts, range and ball-hawking skills this defense desperately needs on the back end.
29. Kansas City Chiefs | Florida State OT Robert Scott Jr.
(AP Photo/Matthew Hinton)
Orlando Brown Jr. is playing the 2022 season on the franchise tag, and the Chiefs could already use an upgrade at right tackle. Scott has experience on both sides, making him a prime candidate to either replace Brown, or line up across from him next season.
30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | South Carolina CB Cam Smith
(Photo by Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images)
Carlton Davis III has one corner spot locked down thanks to a new three-year extension, but both Jamel Dean and Sean Murphy-Bunting are set to hit free agency this offseason. Smith has size, length, instincts and ball skills to be a perfect fit in Todd Bowles’ defense.
31. Buffalo Bills | USC OL Andrew Vorhees
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If there’s a weak link on Buffalo’s roster, it’s the offensive line, and the interior could particularly use some help. Vorhees is in his fifth year as a starter for the Trojans, and has experience a both guard spots, as well as left tackle, giving the Bills tons of experience and versatility up front.
