2023 NCAA tournament betting, odds: Let's look at two totals for Thursday's games

Totals are always a hot topic during the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament, as many look to take advantage of teams playing in neutral sites by betting first-half totals. Full-game unders went on an incredible 20-4 run between Friday and Saturday, causing sportsbooks to adjust to the incoming action before the weekend wrapped up.

Those looking to ride the wave through Sunday found out those runs are never forever, and knowing when the faucet is about to run dry is half the battle. After overs cashed in 75% of Sunday’s slate, we are back to the drawing board as the Sweet 16 approaches.

With eight games on the board, it becomes more about picking your spots than casting a wide net by blind-betting the entire slate in hopes of falling on the right side of a trend. Here are two totals that jumped out at me for Thursday action.

Michigan State vs. Kansas State Under 137.5

The Spartans went under the total in both of their tournament games, which isn’t surprising because scoring has been tough for this year’s Spartans. That’s part of what makes Tom Izzo’s run with this group so impressive. Michigan State relies on being able to hit timely 3s, and it did so at a surprisingly accurate clip this season. Michigan State shoots 38.7% from beyond the arc, ranking sixth overall, tied with Penn State. However, the Spartans are shooting just 23% in the tournament and were held to 2-of-16 shooting against Marquette.

I don’t think that’s getting any better against a Kansas State defense that has more than held its own against the guards of the Big 12. The Wildcats rank 15th nationally at defending the 3 and should be able to run Michigan State off the perimeter. Also, after having three full days to prepare, I’m confident Izzo will have a solid plan in place to corral Markquis Nowell. In a game that’s expected to go down to the last possession, I will bet the pace slows to a halt in the final five minutes and keeps this under the total.

Gonzaga vs. UCLA Over 145.5

The unstoppable force vs. the immovable object. The Zags score more points than anyone, while the Bruins are the second-best defensive team in the country. One would think the total would be correlated to the outcome, but I’m less certain that’s how this one plays out. Let’s focus on why the over is going to cash in this one. Gonzaga’s offense sells itself. Drew Timme has been incredible in the tournament and will still get his against a tough Bruins defense. I am the holder of UCLA Final Four (+300) and national championship (+1000) tickets, but I will be honest enough to admit the loss of Jaylen Clark will be felt in this matchup.

Gonzaga has scored in the 80s in both tournament games, and KenPom still has them pegged to put up 76 against UCLA. However, Clark’s absence is two-fold and impacts both ends of the floor. That’s the key to this bet. The thing that impresses me most about UCLA is the veteran leadership's willingness to adapt to life without Clark and allow Amari Bailey to flourish in his new role. The Bruins may have lost some on defense, but Bailey brings a different element to the floor on the offensive end. Bailey’s ability to score off the dribble and create open looks for his teammates will be massive against a Bulldogs defense that ranks outside of the top 200 in effective FG% (245), 3-pt% (253) and 2-pt% (218). Bailey is averaging 17 points per game since Clark went down and is set up to have his biggest game yet against the Zags. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bruins score 75-80 points here, and the over will be easy money if they get there.