2022 Tuffy Awards: Guardians' Steven Kwan personifies excellence in small samples, but will it last?

After a flurry of transactions leading up to opening day – and even a couple of trades after the season started – fantasy managers are finally back in their familiar routine … of overreacting to every small piece of data they can find.

What else would you expect after a dearth of information during the offseason lockout and a shortened spring training schedule? We finally have games that count and box scores to analyze.

But opening week can be full of just as much misinformation, maybe more. Every year, there are a number of fantastic season-opening performances from players who seemingly come out of almost nowhere, and who end up causing great excitement on the fantasy waiver wire.

The question is whether they’ll be able to maintain that success or fade away as a one-week wonder.

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That’s where our annual Tuffy Awards come into play.

It’s time to recognize those players who may have already enjoyed their best days of the 2022 season. The awards are named for one-time Cubs outfielder Karl "Tuffy" Rhodes, who slugged three home runs off Dwight Gooden in the 1994 season opener and then … hit five more with a .234 batting average the rest of the season.

So, who will join the likes of such legendary fast-starters as Emilio Bonifacio, Casey McGehee, Matt Davidson, Tim Beckham and Yermin Mercedes? Let’s dig in.

Anti-Tuffys

We start with some of this week’s top pickups who actually DO have a bright future.

OF Josh Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays. Although he was sent to the minors at the end of spring training, Lowe immediately got the call - and a spot in the starting lineup - when the Rays traded Austin Meadows to Detroit.

A .291/.381/.535 hitter with 22 homers and 26 steals in the minors last season, Lowe, 24, commanded a very high price this week in leagues where he was available. Although he does strike out a lot, his excellent defensive skills should cement his role as an everyday player.

SS Bryson Stott, Philadelphia Phillies. Stott, 24, shot up the prospect lists with an eye-opening performance in the Arizona Fall League and hit .406 this spring, earning a spot on the Phils’ opening day roster.

He’s been sharing third base duties with Alec Bohm in the early going, but as a left-handed hitter and natural shortstop, he has multiple pathways to playing time.

SS C.J. Abrams, San Diego Padres. So much natural talent at such a young age. Abrams, 21, may only get part-time at-bats while Fernando Tatis recovers from his broken hand, but the experience will be invaluable for someone who has never played a game at the Triple-A level. He’ll contribute most in the stolen base department.

SP Tylor Megill, New York Mets. With little advance notice, Megill, 26, stepped in for Jacob deGrom and pitched five scoreless innings in the Mets’ opener, fanning out six without a walk. He did post a 4.52 ERA in 18 starts last year with 99 strikeouts in 89 2/3 innings, so he is a known quantity, even if he wasn’t supposed to be in the rotation.

Near-Tuffys

It’s buyer beware time with these hot starters. They could be better than expected, but that’s not a very high bar to clear.

C Danny Jansen, Toronto Blue Jays. Jansen hit .571 with homers in each of his first two starts in an offense that should be one of the game’s best. However, he’s a .215 career hitter with a career high of 13 home runs in a season. And he’ll be in the eighth or ninth spot in the lineup all year.

SP Kyle Wright, Atlanta Braves. Though he was a first-round draft pick in 2017 and has World Series experience from last year, Wright hasn’t really shown his prospect pedigree in four previous seasons with the Braves (6.04 ERA in 76 innings). However, he blanked the Reds on two hits over six innings in his first outing and he owns a spot in Atlanta’s six-man rotation.

SS Nico Hoerner, Chicago Cubs. Any Cub with an opening-day homer has to be mentioned somewhere in the Tuffy Awards. With three career homers to his name (all in 2019), Hoerner was the first batter to go deep in 2022. That’s baseball, Suzyn.

Although he did post a .302 average last season, he’s a ground-ball hitter who may not continue to start at short when Andrelton Simmons comes off the injured list.

And the Tuffy Award goes to ...

It’s pretty easy to skew the numbers when your team wins one of its early games by a score of 17-3, while collecting a total of 22 hits – which is more than 12 teams collected in their first series. (And the same number found on “The Very Best of Marvin Gaye.”)

So naturally, we should be skeptical of Owen Miller’s .500 average and 4 RBI in three games. Or Amed Rosario’s .462 mark. Or Oscar Mercado’s 5 RBI. But what about a certain young hitter who started all three games and actually is a top-100 prospect?

OF Steven Kwan, Cleveland Guardians. With eight hits in his first 10 at-bats, Kwan, 24, stands out atop the stat sheet. It shouldn’t really come as a surprise either after he hit .328 over two minor league levels a year ago and .469 in spring training.

Making contact has always been Kwan’s forte. He hit .329 over three seasons in college at Oregon State – with 50 walks and 18 strikeouts his final year in Corvallis. He hit .301 in the minors with more walks than strikeouts. He didn’t whiff a single time this spring in 34 plate appearances and he had three walks (and was hit by a pitch) in his first 14 times up in the majors. With zero swings and misses.

So what’s not to like about someone with an .800/.857/1.000 slash line?

Playing time certainly doesn’t seem to be an issue for Kwan in the near future. And with that kind of on-base percentage, he should remain near the top of the lineup. The question is how much else he will be able to provide over the long haul.

Kwan hit 12 homers and stole just six bases last year in the minors. And at 5-9, 175 pounds, there’s still doubt about how much power he’ll ever have. It’s not impossible, of course, but it’s more likely that he’s a closer comp to Nick Madrigal than Jose Altuve.

Beating up on Royals pitching to start the season is the tide that lifts all boats along the shores of Lake Erie. At the risk of incurring the wrath of Kwan (and the rest of the Guardians), the journey is about to become much more difficult.

Follow Steve Gardner on Twitter @SteveAGardner.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Fantasy baseball Tuffy Awards: Can Steven Kwan's hot start last?