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2022 MLS Cup playoffs: Predicting the first-round fixtures including some big upsets

The two Pacific Northwest teams (Seattle and Portland) that have reigned supreme in the MLS Cup playoffs for nearly a decade didn’t qualify this season. Last year’s top seeds (New England and Colorado) also failed to clinch a spot. Of this year’s 14-team field, half of them weren’t in the playoffs last season. This league is often impossible to predict, but we’ll try to make sense of it anyway.

All odds via BetMGM.

New York Red Bulls (+100) vs. FC Cincinnati (+240)

It finally happened. After three years of finishing in last place, Cincy finally snapped that Wooden Spoon curse and qualified for the first time ever. What’s more impressive is the manner in which the Orange and Blue got here. The trio of Brandon Vazquez, Luciano Acosta and Brenner (46 combined goals) was responsible for carrying this team throughout the season, and they accounted for all five goals in their Decision Day victory to help punch that ticket.

Cincy was the fourth-highest scoring team in MLS this season, but is running into a Red Bulls squad that is elite in their own way as one of the top defensive units. New York has reached the playoffs for 13 straight seasons and remains one of those teams that can complicate the East race. Acquiring Lewis Morgan in the offseason proved clutch as he led the Red Bulls with 14 goals.

The smart pick here would probably be New York slowing Cincy’s potent attack down, but this has been a dream season for Pat Noonan’s side and it ending after just one playoff game doesn’t seem right.

Prediction: Cincinnati finds a way at Red Bull Arena.

LA Galaxy (-115) vs. Nashville SC (+260)

So maybe the acquisitions of Kevin Cabral and Douglas Costa haven’t quite panned out, but the Galaxy knocked it out the park with the summer signings of Riqui Puig and Gastón Brugman. Those two players have completely revamped a midfield that’s crucial for Greg Vanney, and star striker Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez has benefited greatly. Uruguayan veteran defender Martín Cáceres has also provided the defensive stability they’ve been seeking for years. The result was L.A. going from a cusp playoff team to somehow hosting a first-round game. I still believe their best chance is starting Dejan Joveljić up top next to Chicharito, but it’s unlikely we see Vanney roll with that.

It’ll be the Galaxy’s first home playoff game since 2016 and the potential of a second-round matchup against rival LAFC is the prize — which only adds to the intrigue.

Nashville, led by Golden Boot winner and likely MVP Hany Mukhtar, aren’t shying away from the potential of having to beat both L.A. teams as part of a run toward the Cup. They’re a team that can cause a lot of problems in transition with players like Randall Leal, Dax McCarty, Aníbal Godoy and Teal Bunbury aiding Mukhtar.

NASHVILLE, TN - SEPTEMBER 10: Nashville SC midfielder Hany Mukhtar (10) celebrates after scoring a goal during a match between Nashville SC and Los Angeles Galaxy, September 10, 2022 at GEODIS Park in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Matthew Maxey/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Hany Mukhtar hopes to lead Nashville SC past the Los Angeles Galaxy en route to another L.A. showdown. (Photo by Matthew Maxey/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

I think this one comes down to who defends better, and I’d give the slight edge to a tested back line led by Walker Zimmerman, despite them not being as strong as years past. This will likely be the best matchup of the opening round, filled with a bunch of huge names in what should be a true toss-up.

Prediction: Nashville sneaks out of Carson with a close one.

Austin FC (-115) vs. Real Salt Lake (+275)

Like last year, RSL has once again snuck into the playoffs. Unlike last year, don’t expect them to make this miraculous run shocking opponents en route to the conference finals.

They don’t have enough to go blow for blow with this eager Austin team led by MVP candidate Sebastián Driussi. This is their first trip ever to the playoffs which will create some skepticism toward Josh Wolff’s squad considering how inconsistent they were to end the season. But the fact is Austin is just an overall better team and home field advantage will truly shine in Q2 Stadium as that raucous fanbase should orchestrate the energy in a highly anticipated home playoff game that sold out in just minutes.

The stage is set for Austin FC to prove itself worthy of being a championship contender like they seemed to be in August after thrashing LAFC 4-1.

Prediction: Easy work in ATX for the locals.

CF Montreal (-130) vs. Orlando City (+320)

It almost seems like Orlando winning the US Open Cup was an eternity ago. Since then, the Lions have been grossly inconsistent down the stretch, but managed to occupy that last playoff spot due in large part to Facundo Torres being everything they expected. While the dramatic Decision Day win over Columbus stands out, we can’t forget how abysmal they looked in an embarrassing 4-1 rout against Miami just days prior. They played three direct playoff opponents over their last six regular season games and lost all three, being outscored 11-3 in those matches.

There should be some confidence in head coach Oscar Pareja simply because of how he’s been able to change the fortune of this franchise over the years, but they’ll be dealing with a different beast in Montreal. His counterpart Wilfried Nancy is in the running (with a strong case) for Coach of the Year.

Montreal’s 20 wins this season were the second most behind only LAFC. Romell Quioto and Kei Kamara have been an unexpected spark with Djordje Mihailovic playing an important role once again. You can go down the list and say nice things about Alistair Johnston, Ismaël Koné or really anybody else on the roster. This is one of the most well-balanced teams and that’s all credit to the work Nancy has put in. These players are all in and executing his approach in a special type of way that has resulted in a memorable season. This is probably the most under-the-radar squad that will shock some people and make a push.

Prediction: Montreal looks strong in big home win.

New York City FC (-165) vs. Inter Miami (+400)

You’d be hard-pressed to find a better story in MLS this season than Inter Miami. Odds stacked against them due to sanctions stemming from the Blaise Matuidi signing, star DP Gonzalo Higuaín benched for a stretch and an abundance of player movement both in and out. But somehow head coach Phil Neville and sporting director Chris Henderson made all the right moves and decisions to take this team from one that people counted out, to the playoffs.

FORT LAUDERDALE, FLORIDA - SEPTEMBER 13: Gonzalo Higuaín #10 of Inter Miami CF, Alejandro Pozuelo #8 of Inter Miami CF, and Jean Mota #7 of Inter Miami CF celebrate a goal against Columbus Crew at DRV PNK Stadium on September 13, 2022 in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. (Photo by Lauren Sopourn/Getty Images)
Can Gonzalo Higuaín push heavy underdog Inter Miami CF over NYCFC? (Photo by Lauren Sopourn/Getty Images)

Higuaín enters the postseason as the hottest player in the league after scoring 14 goals in the last 16 games. He’s also retiring after this season so you can safely bet the Argentine will be playing with additional motivation. Alejandro Pozuelo was the true key to the Herons’ success, but injury concerns for him and Leonardo Campana make things tricky.

They’re facing off against the defending champs, and despite no longer having Taty Castellanos or head coach Ronny Deila, the experience from last year’s run will be major to a core group of players that still remain. This game will be played at Citi Field due to Yankee Stadium being occupied by … the Yankees. Higuain’s illustrious career can’t possibly end on a baseball field, can it?

Prediction: Miami manages to steal one in New York.

FC Dallas (+100) vs. Minnesota United (+240)

While some teams are entering the playoff fight with momentum, Minnesota is far from that. The Loons only managed to muster four points out of a possible 21 in their last seven games. They’ve lost four straight road games and haven’t gotten a win as a visitor since Aug. 14. All that despite having Emanuel Reynoso, one of the top players in MLS as he proved in the summer when MNUFC looked like a title contender.

The Dallas trio of Jesus Ferreira, Paul Arriola and Alan Velasco should be enough to put them ahead. They'll also rely on a defensive unit that allowed the second-fewest goals in the league this year. Give Nico Estévez a lot of props for locking down the 3rd-seed in his first season at the helm. Now it’s time to see what his squad can do when it matters the most.

Prediction: FC Dallas cruises past Minnesota.

Top seeds LAFC, Union on a bye

Similar to 2019, the Black and Gold won the Supporters’ Shield and are enjoying the first week off. The potential of El Trafico being LAFC's first playoff match this year is also reminiscent of that season. But fans for sure are hoping for two things: that they learned from their mistakes, and that the Galaxy lose. LAFC’s record at Banc of California Stadium remains impeccable and the place will for sure be rocking regardless of their opponent. But there’s always that doubt if time off actually benefits or hurts teams.

For Steve Cherundolo and this star-studded roster it probably is a plus to really hammer down what his best starting XI is. Is Gareth Bale really not a starter or will somebody like Cristian “Chicho” Arango be relegated to a bench role to make way for the Welsh star, who is supposed to be preparing for the World Cup. This is for sure the most talented team of the bunch but that’s not necessarily a good thing in elimination games. Whatever doubts people might have about LAFC arise from perhaps having too many star players to juggle.

In case you haven’t noticed, Philly is just flat-out good. Highest scoring offense, stingiest defense, most likely the Goalkeeper of the Year — anywhere you look on this roster, they're on point. They only lost a total of five games this season. When they won, a lot of times they won big.

Jim Curtain and his team know what they have to do at this point of the season to make a run. And you have to like Philly’s chances against either the Red Bulls or FC Cincinnati as their first opponent. They ran through the East all season and don’t expect that to slow down now. Twelve wins and zero losses at Subaru Park, which is where they will play all their games and have the potential to host the MLS Cup depending on what happens with LAFC. The Union are a clear favorite for many reasons.