2022 Mets ZiPS projections see big things for Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor

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Pete Alonso Francisco Lindor near home plate 2021
Pete Alonso Francisco Lindor near home plate 2021

The Mets' ZiPS projections for the 2022 season -- via Dan Szymborski -- are out at FanGraphs. Among the highlights? A huge season for Pete Alonso, a full-season return to form for Francisco Lindor, and a strong first season in Queens for Max Scherzer.

Szymborski notes that he's optimistic about the Mets' lineup following the additions of Starling Marte, Mark Canha, and Eduardo Escobar, but cautions that the projections for the starting rotation (in terms of health) are more optimistic than he would be.

Some of the key highlights:

OFFENSE

ZiPS projects an enormous season for Alonso, with him slashing .259/.349/.532 with 41 homers, 26 doubles, and 110 RBI.

As far as Lindor, who looked like himself last season from June on, ZiPS has him looking like that for all of 2022, with a .263/.337/.467 line to go along with 25 homers, 27 doubles, and 16 stolen bases. ZiPS also has Lindor leading all Mets position players in WAR, at 4.7.

Big things are also projected for Escobar (27 homers), while Marte (.273/.333/.422 line with 14 homers, 26 doubles, and 31 stolen bases) is projected to have a solid first year in New York.

Jeff McNeil, who seems due for a bounce back, is projected to hit .282/.346/.426 with 26 doubles.

STARTING ROTATION

Traditionally, the ZiPS projections for innings totals for starting pitchers can lean conservative, and that's reflected a bit in the Mets' projections.

ZiPS has Scherzer throwing just 169 innings, posting a 3.08 ERA (3.20 FIP) with 231 strikeouts.

As far as Jacob deGrom, the projection of just 130 innings makes sense given his injury issues last season and the fact that there is still a huge question surrounding his elbow.

Jun 21, 2021; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Jacob deGrom (48) pitches against the Atlanta Braves during the third inning at Citi Field.
Jun 21, 2021; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Jacob deGrom (48) pitches against the Atlanta Braves during the third inning at Citi Field.

Still, ZiPS has deGrom returning to dominance, with a 2.28 ERA (2.30 FIP) and 183 strikeouts in those 130 innings.

ZiPS projects a mediocre season from Taijuan Walker (4.43 ERA) and not much from Carlos Carrasco (a 4.00 ERA in 81 innings).

BULLPEN

Edwin Diaz, who has been largely dominant the last two seasons after a rough 2019, is projected to have a 2.76 ERA (2.94 FIP) and 98 strikeouts in 62 innings.

ZiPS also projects strong seasons from Seth Lugo (3.80 ERA and 105 strikeouts in 92 innings), Trevor May (3.57 ERA and 78 strikeouts in 58 innings), and Miguel Castro (3.86 ERA and 87 strikeouts in 72 innings).