2021 MLB season: PECOTA projections have Mets running away with NL East title

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Danny Abriano
·1 min read
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Jacob deGrom delivers a pitch in road uniform
Jacob deGrom delivers a pitch in road uniform

In its annual projections, PECOTA by Baseball Prospectus not only has the Mets winning the NL east in 2021 -- it has them winning it going away.

Per the simulations, PECOTA has the Mets finishing with an average of 95.5 wins and 66.5 losses, followed by the Washington Nationals at 85-77 and Philadelphia Phillies at 83-79.

The PECOTA projections are bearish on the Braves, with Atlanta finishing with an average of 82.4 wins and 79.6 losses.

The Marlins check in at an average of 68.1 wins and 93.9 losses.

The projections have the Milwaukee Brewers winning the NL Central and the Los Angeles Dodgers winning the NL West.

Here's an explanation from Baseball Prospectus on the PECOTA projections:

Please remember that PECOTA and our simulations do not “pick” a team to “win” any particular number of games. Rather, they identify an estimated range of games a team might win and tells you the average of that fairly wide range. That is the point of the visualizations. Any one of those outcomes is possible. However, some of them, as you can see, are more likely than others.

For the 2020 season (in February, before the season was delayed and eventually shortened due to the COVID-19 pandemic), PECOTA projections had the Mets winning the NL East.

The 2021 projections -- with the Mets amassing a win total in the mid-90s -- are much higher on New York.

OddsMoney LinePoint SpreadTotal Points
Miami
+135--
NY Mets
-162--