2021 Dover betting preview, presented by BetMGM

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·4 min read
2021 Dover betting preview, presented by BetMGM
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The following article is brought to you by BetMGM.

Once again, it‘s time to attempt to conquer the “Monster Mile.” NASCAR folks, it‘s Dover time.

The NASCAR Cup Series invades the Delaware track this weekend and the expected favorites most likely won‘t surprise anybody. Four drivers — Martin Truex, Jr., Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, and Ryan Newman — have won three career races apiece at Dover International Speedway, and they‘ll be racers to keep an eye on for those who like to bet NASCAR online.

They are all expected to be factors Sunday in the Drydene 400. Another five drivers who are in this weekend‘s field have won at least one career race at the 1-mile track. Harvick and Denny Hamlin captured the two races last year.

So who else figures prominently into the NASCAR odds this week at Dover? We give you an idea and also take a look at a few drivers who may not be on your radar yet.

RELATED: NASCAR Bet Center | Odds for Sunday’s race at Dover

THE FAVORITE

Martin Truex, Jr. (+350)

In 2007, Truex won his first NASCAR Cup Series race, and it happened to be at Dover — a track that is very close to his New Jersey roots. While he has been a frequent series winner in recent seasons (30 career victories), he didn‘t win a whole lot back in the early years — and it would take him six years to win again in the sport‘s highest series (2013 at Sonoma Raceway).

So, Dover is a special place for Truex. He also won there in 2019 and 2016, and he owns an 11.5 average finish at the track, taking 18 top-10 finishes in 30 career starts. Couple that with his two wins in the NASCAR Xfinity Series circuit, and it‘s apparent he likes the place.

Along with his great record at Dover, he also has raced well in 2021. He has three wins this year at Phoenix Raceway, Martinsville Speedway and last week at Darlington Raceway, and he is currently second in the season‘s standings behind Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Hamlin. Truex will start No. 1 in the race based on NASCAR‘s 2021 start formula (the sport hasn‘t done traditional pole qualifying this year).

OTHERS: While Truex is a solid choice to place a few dollars on, so is Kyle Larson (+450). Larson is right behind Truex in the NASCAR betting lines and is just ahead of Hamlin (+500). Larson is intriguing because he has nine top 10s in 12 career starts and a NASCAR-best 7.4 when it comes to average place/finish. Larson has won at Dover in both the Cup and Xfinity Series and is a viable threat. Hamlin will start No. 2 and Larson No. 4.

THE DARK-HORSE THREAT

Joey Logano (+1400)

While Logano may not perch atop the racing odds this week, he‘s traditionally strong at Dover (14 top 10s in 24 starts). He‘s more consistent at only one other track left on the NASCAR Cup Series regular-season schedule, and that‘s Michigan International Speedway (17 career top 10s).

Logano also has four NASCAR Xfinity Series wins at the track. He‘ll start in the No. 9 position and should be a factor. After a couple of tough outings the past few weeks (no top 10s the past three races), one can be sure he would like to start a new trend. He is currently fourth in the series standings, behind Hamlin, Truex and William Byron.

OTHERS: It has been a while since Brad Keselowski‘s lone career win at Dover (2012), but he has been pretty reliable at the track (10 top 10s in 22 starts) and also won at the Delaware track in the Xfinity series. Keselowski (+1400) starts No. 15 on the grid.

THE INTRIGUING LONG SHOT

Daniel Suarez (+12500)

Suarez was solid at Dover when he was with Joe Gibbs Racing in 2017 and 2018, finishing in the top 10 in all four races held those two seasons. He also won a race at the track in the Xfinity Series (2016). It is arguably his best track, as he has the most career top 10s there and one of his top average-finish marks (13.8). Can he recapture that success? It wasn‘t that long ago he found success at Dover. He starts in the No. 24 spot.